“It’s highly likely,” Thielen commented to Cointelegraph regarding the probability of Bitcoin replicating similar market trends from 2024. In this year, Bitcoin achieved a record high of $73,679 in March, after which it entered a consolidation phase, fluctuating within a range of approximately $20,000 until Donald Trump’s election as US president in November.

Thielen shared this prediction even two months ago, approximately when Bitcoin hit its current peak of $109,000 on Trump’s inauguration day. In his latest market report on March 15, he stated that Bitcoin’s current chart resembles a “High and Tight Flag,” a typically bullish continuation pattern that currently displays signs of vulnerability.

“The presence of two flags instead of a single, precise formation undermines this setup,” Thielen observed. “Consequently, the pattern indicates market indecision rather than clear-cut bullish consolidation,” he further noted.

Thielen also pointed out that the spot Bitcoin ETF market doesn’t show any signs of a “buy-the-dip” mentality. “This is consistent with our belief that most ETF flows are driven by arbitrage-focused hedge funds. With persistently low funding rates, there’s little motivation or willingness to inject more capital despite the recent price correction,” Thielen explained.

Since March began, when Bitcoin dropped below $90,000, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have seen total withdrawals of approximately $1.66 billion, as per Farside data. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $84,290, which is a 23% drop from its $109,000 peak in January.

Thielen is uncertain whether Bitcoin’s upward trend will continue in the short term. “Therefore, it might be wise to close short positions now, even though there’s minimal evidence supporting a robust price recovery,” Thielen advised.

Ever since Bitcoin dipped below $80,000 on Feb. 28 — the first time since November — due to growing macroeconomic uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, several crypto analysts have been forecasting further decline for the asset.

On March 10, BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes stated, “it seems like Bitcoin will retest $78,000.” “If it doesn’t hold, $75,000 is next,” he added. Meanwhile, Iliya Kalchev, a dispatch analyst at digital asset investment platform Nexo, suggested to Cointelegraph on March 11 that the low $70,000 range could “lay the groundwork for a more sustainable recovery.”

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