Recently, the US unemployment rate has risen from its low-3% range, seen in 2022-2023, to the mid-4% area. Monthly nonfarm payroll gains have decelerated from post-pandemic highs to more moderate figures. Job openings and quits have also decreased from their 2021-2022 peaks, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series.

Why Bitcoin Prices React to Labor Data

The monthly U.S. Employment Situation Report, crucial for traders globally, provides insights into job creation, unemployment rates, wage growth, and labor force participation. These metrics serve as a proxy for understanding the health of the US consumer and the potential for recession.

In macroeconomic terms, strong job creation with low unemployment suggests robust household spending and corporate earnings, while weak data signals the opposite. The labor report also influences Federal Reserve policy expectations. Firm labor data combined with sticky inflation may imply prolonged high rates, whereas rising unemployment and fading payroll growth could indicate rate cuts.

Channels Linking the Labor Market to Bitcoin

Two primary channels illustrate how labor market shifts impact Bitcoin prices. The growth channel, where rising unemployment and weaker wage gains elevate market caution regarding future earnings and risks, often prompts investors to reduce exposure to high-risk assets like Bitcoin.

The liquidity and rates channel arises when weak labor data suggests easier central bank policies. Anticipated rate cuts can lead to falling real yields and a softer dollar, expanding global liquidity—conditions often favorable for Bitcoin, though not consistently.

Current US Labor Trends and Crypto Implications

Recent BLS reports depict an economy adding jobs at a slower rate than during the post-pandemic boom. The unemployment rate has risen, and fewer Americans report job availability as “plentiful.” Defensive sectors like healthcare and government have driven recent job growth, while cyclical industries such as manufacturing show weaknesses.

Forward-looking indicators, including the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), indicate a cooling labor market. Lower job openings and quits suggest decreased demand for labor and diminished worker confidence.

Analyzing Bitcoin’s Response to Labor Surprises

Bitcoin’s trading patterns around jobs reports reveal how macro dynamics play out. Weaker-than-expected payrolls often trigger short-term risk aversion, leading to a sell-off in equities and crypto. However, if weak labor data leads to expectations of rate cuts, Bitcoin may stabilize or recover as investors rotate back into riskier assets.

Understanding these correlations without treating them as definitive trading rules can be beneficial. A macro dashboard tracking key labor metrics like payrolls, unemployment rates, wage growth, and JOLTS data can provide valuable insights.

For crypto investors, labor data shapes the macroeconomic environment, influencing growth expectations, rate paths, and liquidity conditions, ultimately impacting risk appetite and Bitcoin prices.

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Bitcoin and other proof-of-work coins are mined by Core Scientific. In order to verify transactions and issue new tokens at the same time, the procedure requires the powering of data centers around the region equipped with highly specialized computers. This procedure calls for high-priced machinery, some technical expertise, and a substantial amount of power.

As of Tuesday’s close of trade, Core was valued at $78 million, down from a high of $4.3 billion in July 2021, when it went public through a special purpose acquisition vehicle or SPAC. Over the last year, the stock price has dropped by more than 98%.

A source close to the firm reports that it is still making money, but not enough to cover the financial debt it incurred while leasing equipment. This source, who asked not to be identified as discussing internal company affairs, said that the firm would not be going into liquidation but would instead continue business as usual while it negotiates with senior security noteholders, who control the vast majority of the company’s debt.

While Core warned shareholders in an October filing that they risked a complete loss of their investment, this may not be the case if the sector as a whole begins to show signs of improvement. Core’s convertible note holders have struck a contract that protects them from complete ruin in the event that bitcoin’s economic climate improves. In addition, the firm said that it would not be able to make the debt payments that were due in late October and early November and that its creditors were free to file lawsuits against it for nonpayment.

The price of bitcoin, which is predominantly minted by Core, has fallen from a record high of almost $69,000 in November 2021 to roughly $16,800. Profit margins have shrunk because of the decline in value, more competition from other miners, and higher costs of producing and using energy.

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Earlier, Tesla accept the payments of BTC for the Tesla merchandise, though it lately brought this to an end. However, it has also gone for expansion of such facility to the Dogecoin. This has also seen some kind of the speedy rise in the value subsequent to the support of Musk. Various followers have also gone for purchasing of the Dogecoin, thereby increasing the price value. As per the analysts, use of Dogecoin for various products of Tesla purchases will also hike the value ahead.

Bearish Market with enhanced regulation – Decrease in Bitcoin

Since with the regular use of BTC for the purpose of making payments and also decrease in the real-life use. Where the value may even see some kind of the decline. Here, bearish market along with the enhanced level of regulations are even key reasons where BTC observed a decline in the value. This is still to be seen about how it would react for such changes.

Tesla, foray & changes

Here, Tesla has simply attracted the main attention of various crypto investors previous year as it has also announced key investment in BTC. It also regular for investing in BTC though Musk has also promoted this coin actively. He even expressed some great hopes that the customers will use the coin for various Tesla cars and different products. However, it might not be realized because of any such changes in stance.  Though, during the closing of 2021, the investments in this coin has even attain the level of $2 billion, this is certainly steep decline.

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The heavy buying volume coincided with liquidations of leveraged long positions in BTC futures, reaching an eight-day high at $239 million, according to data from crypto analysis firm Glassnode. Per Glassnode, the highest liquidations seen since last year’s March crashes were mostly associated with BitMex, followed by Binance and OKEx.

The tradeable bitcoin ETF is on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) under the ticker BITI. The BITI fund tracks the inverse performance of bitcoin through its holdings in the ProShares Short Bitcoin ETP.

The BITI ETF is a Short Bitcoin ETF. The fund tracks the inverse performance of bitcoin through its holdings in the ProShares Short Bitcoin ETP. This itself is a leveraged exchange-traded note (ETN) that trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX)

According to crypto derivatives data provider Skew, Biti reached a high of 6.2 million Canadian dollars (C$) on July 22, which is more than twice its launch volume at C$3 million.

The ProShares Short Bitcoin ETF is a fund that tracks the inverse performance of bitcoin. However, its holdings in the ProShares Short Bitcoin ETP. The ETF has seen its trading volume increase significantly since it launched on July 10. It is rising from C$3 million to C$6.2 million last week alone.

According to crypto derivatives data provider Skew, Biti reached a high of 6.2 million Canadian dollars (C$) on July 22. The volume is more than twice its launch volume at C$3 million. The recent spike in trading volume coincides with increased demand from longs. They are liquidating their positions due to market volatility following news about a potential SEC approval for a UBS Winklevoss ETF application earlier this month (the ruling was later rescinded).

The heavy buying volume coincided with liquidations of leveraged long positions in BTC futures. It is reaching an eight-day high at $239 million, according to data from crypto analysis firm Glassnode.

Read More: Is bitcoin dead? Will BTC Rise up Again?

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Worst Time For the Crypto, Not For the Bitcoin Whales and Shrimps 

June 2021 goes down as one of the worst trading months for the largest cryptocurrency. 

In fact, in the last 30 days, Bitcoin dropped more than 37% of its market value. It is competing only with the 2011 bear market, however, for the crown of the worst month on record. But,  BTC traded below $10, according to an on-chain analytics platform, Glassnode. 

Moreover, Bitcoin is currently up 3% at $19,809 in the last 24 hours at the time of scripting.

Regardless of the gloomy crypto market, on-chain data reveals a steadfast trend of either Bitcoin accumulation or self-custody, giving exchange balances are reducing at historically high levels. “It appears that a near-complete purge of market tourism has taken place,” Glassnode says.

The aggregate amount of BTC deposits to crypto exchanges has declined net withdrawals likewise. The analytics platform said the aggregate Bitcoin balances on exchanges have declined to levels last seen in July 2018. This attests to either accumulation and an awoken interest in self-custody following the continuous report of withdrawal suspension and finance strain on crypto firms.

Exchange Bitcoin balances may have declined because of self-custody

For instance, the Bitcoin balance on the US exchange Coinbase has reduced in a” persistent 10k to 30k BTC step function

There is an aggregate of 450k BTC in the past two years, while Binance gained over 300k BTC at the same time. 

The persistent withdrawals from Coinbase probably result from the recent bankruptcy speculation. 

Overall balance on Exchanges has seen an aggregate outflow of -750k BTC since March 2020. The last three months alone have seen some 142.5k BTC in outflows alone, a remarkable 18.8% of the total.

Glassnode 

For the accumulation part, the supply of whales/largest (10k+ BTC) and shrimps/smallest (<1 BTC) holders increased as the exchange supply dropped. 

Moreover, the smallest addresses are reportedly accumulating 60.46k BTC per month.

However, the supply of wallets holding between 10 to 10k BTC has made no noticeable change.

Read More: TA: Bitcoin gained pace Jumps 5%, Why BTC Can Offer Trade Openings On Dips

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Bitcoin is resistant and it has gained pace. It might be lower than S19500 in the short term.

• Bitcoin gained pace above the resistance level of $19500 and $19,600 levels at the time of writing.
• Bitcoin price is now trading over the level of the $20,000 level and the 100 hourly simple moving
• average at the time of scripting.
• At the time of scripting, there was a move above the bitcoin key bearish trends line.  The resistance is near 19,460 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• Bitcoin has gained pace, and the pair is tested above the resistance zone of $20,500 at the time of writing

Bitcoin Gained Pace

The BTC price of forming a base above the support zone is $18,720.  

As a result, BTC started a decent increase and broke the $19,500 resistance zone.

Furthermore, there was a clear move above the key bearish trend line with resistance near $19,460 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. 

Even the price broke the $20,000 resistance. It is settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

Bitcoin climbed above the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the key drop from the $20,500 swing high to the $18,735 low. However, the bulls struggled to pump the price above the $20,500 resistance zone at the time of writing.

In addition, a high is forming near $20,450, and the price is consolidating gains. Bitcoin has gained pace and is trading above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the $18,738 swing low to the $20,450 high. 

On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $20,450 and $20,500 levels.

Technical Indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now well above the 50 levels.

Major Support Levels – $20,000, followed by $19,500.

Major Resistance Levels – $20,500, $20,920 and $21,500.

Read More: Visa launches exclusive ‘no-limit’ Bitcoin card in UAE

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Kraken exchange claims that they are willing to pay their triggered employees to leave the company.

Kraken CEO Jesse Powell spoke to Fox News.

This unique announcement of Jesse Powell comes in the midst of Lay off spree in the middle industry.  

Kraken Exchange CEO is making the headlines by making moves against employees. The movement is against the employees that Jesse calls the Woke. 

Speaking to Fox News, the CEO blatantly stated that Triggered employees should leave the company. 

Jesse Powell claims that he is also willing to pay four months’ salary for the employees who are part of the Woke campaign. According to Jessie, his employees don’t agree with his policies. Further, Jesse argues that the company was under attack from the inside.

Moreover, Jessie stated that the company’s productivity was under attack. 

A lot of people were wasting their time arguing with these people and getting into therapy sessions with them.

Jesse said that they are paying four months of salary so that the employees can find a better workplace suitable for them. He also stated that the employees had accepted thirty such offers so far. He also highlighted that if the employees refuse to leave after taking the payment, then they will be managed out the hard way.

I think when you go woke, you go broke. I think the whole woke activist movement inside of the companies is that they completely ignore the fact that we have a business to run.

Other tech CEOs such as Elon Musk came in support of Jesse Powell. However, the New York Times has called out Jesse’s policies stating that his current behavior is toxic and narcissistic.

In related layoff news, as per the reports from Wu Blockchain, Huobi is planning to lay off more than 30% of its workforce. The reason stated was that the revenue dropped considerably after removing the Chinese users.

The current bear market and crypto winter have proven to be extremely difficult for crypto companies and investors. Firms are doing mass layoffs to help their business survive amidst the harsh market conditions.

Suggested Reads: Kraken Originates NFT Trading Platform Providing Token-Based Loans

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Cryptocurrencies are the digital gold of today’s era. However, with each passing day, Bitcoin has been going downwards since Nov 2021. This is when the markets are at their best, and crypto is hitting the all-time high of $3 trillion. 

Therefore, some believe that BTC is dead for the 458th time. The Critic of bitcoin has often come forward when the markets are getting hit with the regulations, rate hikes or tightening policies.

As per 99Bitcoins’ data, the largest reserves of the cryptocurrency have been called “Dead”. This is a minimum of 458 since 2010, and even 19 cases were recorded this year. 

However, the Co-Founder of ReSource, Ashley Taylor Buck, believes that Bitcoin is still alive “more than ever.” 

“It is the strongest use case for a third, neutral, non-partisan monetary system. It is the only large-scale, truly decentralized network that will handle the volume of cash necessary for sovereign and nation-states to trust and transact with each other. There is also no chance it can disappear because the blockchain is running on satellites in space,” Buck told Be[in]Crypto.

Furthermore, Buck has also given two of the most important reasons. One on a macro level responsible for the latest crypto crash is the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate hike. Second is the alarming levels” and mass overleveraging with margin calls and liquidations. 

In addition, Celsius Network’s flush of liquidations has also had a major impact on the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem. Also, Buck believes that Celsius’s recent actions will potentially cause long-term damage.

Is There Any Hope or Bitcoin Dead?

The crypto space has lost around two-thirds of its all-time high total market capitalization since Nov. 2021. However, with the current bullish moves and funding, Magic Eden’s $130 million deal. 

For example, the market has also shown signs of hope. According to CoinMarketCap data, the industry’s market cap is consolidating around the $940 billion mark.

Buck says that the real projects will continue to build, and the fundamentals remain intact. She says that the retail perception and trust of the space have changed. The dynamics are changing because of the circumstances, and they will take time to recover because it’s “hard to bring trust back

Suggested Reads: Crypto Crashed. Here’s How Crypto Investors Can Fix Things

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After a wick down to under $18,000 at the weekend, bitcoin has now stabilized and is enjoying a rally, having recaptured the major support at around $19,500. The number one cryptocurrency is at $21,300 at the time of going to press.

After a two-week slump from around $32k, which also included a record-breaking 8 red daily candles in a row, bitcoin now appears to have gathered itself, and a bounce is currently taking place.

With much bearish sentiment still in the market, and other potential liquidations still in the pipeline, it’s not at all certain that the bounce in the crypto market will contain much vigor.

A downward sloping trendline that began on May 11 is one possible target. By the time the bitcoin price reaches it again it could be at around $25k. If there is no rejection here, then perhaps we could see bitcoin returning to test the previous $29,000 to $30,000 major support, which has now flipped into resistance.

Bitcoin Bounce Bringing Back the Life in Cryptos

Bitcoin’s small bounce has also brought the altcoins back to life, however temporary a time that may be. Ethereum has bounced a nice 30% over the last 3 days or so, and has climbed back above a very long upward sloping trendline that began way back in early March of 2020.

Where the price right now at $1,150, also coincides with a retaking of the 78.6 Fibonacci level. This is therefore very strong support for ethereum, and an incredibly important level to hold. $1,400 is the next target to the upside, with $1,700 above that.

Among the altcoins that have also reacted strongly is LINK. The number one oracle play has risen over 40% since its bottom, and it’s now sitting at the $7.35 resistance. Consolidation above this level might see it go higher to $9.60, which could be the next target.

MATIC, layer 2 for ethereum, has also bounced back around 40%. It’s now hit a resistance that was formed back in April of 2021. Should it manage to consolidate above, then the 78.6 fib beckons from above at a price of $0.63, which would equate to nearly a third increase.

Zilliqa (ZIL) fell to its June 2020 support and has bounced back strongly since then, recording a more than 50% rise. It has since lost about 10% of that. However, a return to its own 78.6 fib level would mean an 85% rise overall.

Nevertheless, all eyes remain on bitcoin, and should the king of the cryptocurrencies continue to move up strongly, then some of the fundamentally strong cryptocurrencies could take advantage and post even higher gains.

Read More: Bitcoin is Mainly Used in Underground Economy for Illicit Activities, Said, Ben Bernanke

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The bitcoin prices have lost a whopping 26% over the last few weeks and 18 month low of $20,193 on June 15. Since then, it is gaining a little composure. Even though the price is returning to $22,344. However, the asset remains in the doldrums, down 67% from its all-time high.

The director of the Global macro at the investment giant Fidelity, Jurrien Timmer, has been looking into the price-earnings ratio (P/E) for Bitcoin. Since it is not a company, this equates to a price/network ratio.

Furthermore, according to the charts, the ratio has returned to similar levels during the cycle peaks of 2013 and 2017. Fidelity summarized the situation by introducing that valuation is often more important than the price”. 

Bitcoin Price and Valuation

Usually, a P/E ratio is used in conventional finance to value the company by measuring the present share price that is relative to its earnings per share. However, this doesn’t work for the crypto, so the price usually gets measured against the network activity. 

The same way of looking at it is the network to value the ratio of the transaction (NVT) as depicted by technical analyst Willy Woo.

Also, Timmer added that another way to highlight it is by overlaying Bitcoin’s non-zero addresses against its price.

Flow model, he then showed how oversold the asset was at the moment. Bitcoin has not been this oversold since the capitulation events in 2011, 2014, and 2018.

This could be an indication that we are very close to the bottom of this market cycle. Also, this week’s massive selloff may have been the final flush-out.

Final Miner Capitulation For the Bitcoin Miners

There is one additional factor that could cause a final leg down, similar to the one in the 2018 market crash – Bitcoin miners.

Miners have been moving BTC to exchanges at record levels this week. CoinMetrics also reported that there was an all-time high in dollar terms with a net $1.94 billion worth of BTC sent to exchanges yesterday. This equated to a record 88,000 coins in just one day.

Miners need to offload the asset to cover their increasing power expenses and remain in business for the crypto winter. This mass liquidation could cause another big dump, echoing the over 80% drawdowns that occurred in previous cycles.

If this happens, Bitcoin prices could realistically fall to around $12,000 very quickly, which would mark an 82% retreat from peak levels. Castle Island Ventures partner, Nick Carter, explained the forces behind this miner liquidation event in a recent tweet.

Read More: NFT Market Suffers in Crypto Meltdown!

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