Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s chief investment officer, has noticed a significant change in Bitcoin’s previously consistent four-year pattern. The old drivers such as supply cuts, rate fluctuations, and crash threats are no longer the dominant factors. The dynamics are now being shaped by new elements.

Halving’s Diminishing Importance Over Time

Hougan explains that while Bitcoin halving continues to slash new coin production by 50%, its relevance is waning. In the past, this event led to exponential price surges. However, as Bitcoin’s market cap grows into the hundreds of billions, the same supply cut grows less impactful every four years. For instance, halving events in 2016 and 2020 saw price increases of over 150%. In recent times, such events have led to less than 50% price jumps.

Hougan’s analysis from Bitwise shows a friendlier interest rate environment this time. In 2018 and 2022, the US Federal Reserve’s tightening led to severe crypto drops, with Bitcoin plunging 72% and 69% from its peak. Now, as rates are easing or on hold, cryptocurrencies are more likely to trade upwards.

Emergence of Institutional Trends Outpacing Old Cycles

Hougan identifies ETFs as the new crypto growth driver with a 5-10 year timeline. Spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in 2024 have attracted over $10 billion in net inflows. This consistent inflow can’t be attributed to a single four-year cycle.

Big investors such as pensions and endowments are also preparing to enter the fray. Many of them only started considering crypto last year, and the process to overcome internal barriers can take months or even years. However, their entry could significantly reshape markets.

Regulatory Clarity On the Rise

Hougan notes that regulatory clarity has improved since January 2025 with new custody rules, tax guidelines, and licensing regimes. This progress reduces systemic risk and allows banks and asset managers to offer crypto services.

Moreover, the recent Genius Act has unlocked opportunities for prime-broker platforms, allowing trading desks, clearing houses, and research teams to invest billions in a short time. This expansion might take time, but it’s here to stay.

The Unpredictable Role of Treasury Firms

However, Hougan points out a new cyclical risk: the rise of Treasury firms providing short-term lending and yield products. If these firms grow too rapidly without adequate controls, they could still trigger a market crash, introducing a new potential hazard that didn’t exist in previous cycles.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingViewCryptoNewsBTC

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Hougan drew parallels between Ethereum and Bitcoin’s performance over the past one and a half years. ETPs and corporate treasuries’ massive buying spree have been a significant driver for Bitcoin’s upward trajectory, consuming more than 100% of all newly minted Bitcoin.

However, Ethereum had not enjoyed the same trend until recently. Ether ETFs, which launched in July 2024, only managed to attract about $2.5 billion until mid-May. This situation has been drastically reversed recently, with spot ETH ETFs purchasing the asset at an unprecedented rate. Bitwise estimates that ETPs and corporate treasuries combined have bought 2.83 million ETH since May 15, amounting to over $10 billion at current prices. This is 32 times the net new supply during the same period.

Hougan believes this trend will persist as investors are “significantly underweight” in Ethereum compared to Bitcoin. Furthermore, the growing market for real-world asset tokenization and the implementation of stablecoin regulations will further increase Ethereum’s demand.

BitMEX founder, Arthur Hayes, agreed with this outlook in his recent blog post, predicting that Ether’s price would soar to $10,000 by year-end. Ether prices are currently consolidating around $3,720 after encountering resistance at $3,800 thrice.

Over the past month, Ether has outperformed Bitcoin with an impressive 67% gain from around $2,250, where it was trading in June.

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However, the Assistant Secretary of SEC, Sherry R. Haywood, soon intervened and decided that the commission would review the approval. “The Commission will review the delegated action,” Haywood stated on Tuesday. She also clarified that “the July 22, 2025 order is stayed until the Commission orders otherwise.”

There was no immediate response from Bitwise regarding this decision. An SEC representative declined to comment on any specific company or filing.

The Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund, trading under the ticker “BITW,” currently includes BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, Polkadot, and others, based on a market cap-weighted methodology, as mentioned on their website.

This move by the SEC mirrors a similar decision made for the Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund LLC earlier this month. Grayscale’s proposal to convert another one of its closed-end funds into an ETF was approved on an “accelerated basis,” but was later put on hold.

Despite these setbacks, Grayscale has stated that it “remains committed” to continue its efforts to list. This comes as the SEC is also evaluating a wide range of crypto ETFs, tracking everything from SOL to DOGE, amidst an increasingly accommodating regulatory environment for crypto since President Donald Trump’s inauguration in January.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that provides news, research, and data. Foresight Ventures, a majority investor of The Block since November 2023, also invests in other crypto companies. Crypto exchange Bitget is a key LP for Foresight Ventures. Regardless, The Block continues to operate independently to provide objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry.

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Over the past year, the journey of spot Ethereum ETFs has been filled with dramatic ups and downs, from sluggish beginnings with minimal investment influx to periods of outflows and finally, massive positive monetary inflows. Despite their fluctuating performance, these products have significantly contributed to institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies.

As reported by CryptoPotato at the time of their launch, the collective nine products accrued a positive flow of $106 million on the first day. Influential outflows from Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust (ETHE) totaling over $484 million significantly impacted these inflows.

At the forefront was BlackRock’s spot Ethereum ETF (ETHA) which recorded an inflow of $266 million on the first day and continues to lead the pack. Bitwise’s ETHW and Fidelity’s FETH followed with inflows of $204 million and $71 million respectively. Other funds from asset management firms like 21Shares, Invesco, VanEck, and Franklin Templeton saw inflows between $13 million and $7.5 million.

Comparing the most recent trading day with the debut of these funds, the progress made by these funds is substantial. As of Friday, July 18, the ETFs collectively pulled in over $402 million in inflows. Interestingly, this is not the highest recorded inflow for these products.

The spot Ethereum ETFs amassed their highest ever inflow of over $726 million on July 16, according to data from CoinGlass. The very next day, they recorded their second-largest daily inflow of $602 million. Since July 5, these funds have maintained a consistent inflow streak for 11 days, accumulating over $2.8 billion.

BlackRock continues to dominate with total assets under management (AUM) standing at $7.92 billion. ETHE follows closely with an AUM of $3.46 billion.

However, the journey for these ETFs hasn’t been smooth sailing, especially considering Ethereum’s subpar performance in this cycle. Despite a strong start, the following trading days saw worrying outflows with investors purchasing less ETH than anticipated.

While Grayscale’s Trust continued to experience outflows, other products struggled to compete. This trend persisted until mid-November when the funds began an 18-day streak of positive inflows, which was later surpassed by a 19-day streak ending on June 12.

With investors continuing to show strong interest in ETH, it’s anyone’s guess what the next year holds for spot Ethereum ETFs.

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The report indicates that Bitwise’s own Cryptoasset Sentiment Index has soared to its highest level since May, signaling a bullish sentiment. This surge is a result of an influx of capital into exchange-traded products. The total net inflows into global Bitcoin ETPs have reached a record high of $14.3 billion this year, with the last five sessions contributing another $2.2 billion, equivalent to roughly 20,763 BTC.

Why the sudden shift towards risk? Bitwise attributes this to a reduction in macro uncertainty. New US trade agreements with Canada could be finalized in July, and the US and Iran have adopted surprisingly reconciliatory tones. Additionally, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has linked the resumption of rate cuts to progress in tariff talks, opening the possibility of a looser policy in the coming weeks.

According to Bitwise, this combination of declining geopolitical risks, uncertain trade policy, and potential monetary policy stimulus should continue to improve market sentiment and provide a significant boost for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

On-chain data also seems ready for a surge. Large-volume Bitcoin wallets withdrew 8,740 BTC from exchanges last week, exchange reserves dropped to 2.898 million BTC, and net selling pressure on spot venues decreased from $2.2 billion to $0.5 billion.

While derivatives present a more complex picture, with futures open interest dropping by 20,000 BTC and bearish perpetual funding rates hinting at a lingering short bias, options markets show traders quietly retracting.

Bitwise concludes that as long as geopolitical détente, trade breakthroughs, and an accommodating Federal Reserve coincide with continuous ETF inflows, global risk appetite is likely to return decisively, keeping Bitcoin on an upward trajectory. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $106,840.

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Mike Novogratz, the founder of Galaxy Digital, has also hinted at the possibility of such prices this year, attributing this to the rising institutional investments and an increased craving for digital assets.

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently floating around its peak, trading at $108,698, merely $3,272 below its all-time high of $111,970 recorded on May 22, based on CoinMarketCap data. The selling pressure, as per Horsley, largely comes from early adopters who bought Bitcoin at significantly lower prices and are now cashing in on the landmark $100,000 level.

“It seems that at $100k, individuals who hold large amounts of Bitcoin bought a long time ago at very low prices are selling some,” Horsley stated. However, he believes this situation will be short-lived, and selling will decline as Bitcoin breaks new records.

Even before Bitcoin exceeded $100,000 on May 8, Glassnode, the onchain analytics firm, warned of older investors selling as the level was achieved.

Horsley further argued that Bitcoin holders who need funds in the future will devise alternative methods to leverage their Bitcoin without selling. “Eventually, when people need liquidity, they will resort to borrowing from an ever-increasing pool of lenders,” he said.

The potential tightening in Bitcoin supply has become a hot topic in the industry. There are signs of a dwindling supply among OTC desks, which handle large off-exchange transactions. Michael Saylor of Strategy voiced a similar view recently. On June 10, Saylor mentioned that around 450 Bitcoin are up for sale daily by Bitcoin miners, representing roughly $50 million at its current price. If that amount is bought, the price has to rise, Saylor concluded.

Please note that this article does not offer investment advice or recommendations. Investments and trading moves come with risks, and readers should undertake their own research before making a decision.

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Circle, the USDC issuer, went public last week under the ticker CRCL. It was one of the most significant IPOs in recent times, as Hougan noted in a recent client memo. The IPO was oversubscribed by 25 times, priced higher than the indicated range at $31, and soared by 167% on the first day. According to The Block’s Circle price page, as of Tuesday’s close, the stock is trading at $105.91, giving it a market capitalization of $28 billion. This is roughly half the size of Coinbase and Robinhood.

Hougan describes stablecoins as the second killer application in the crypto space, behind Bitcoin, and points out that stablecoin AUM has grown from just over $4 billion to $250 billion in the past five years. The U.S. Treasury Department projects this could reach $2 trillion by 2030.

Hougan further argues that crypto-related stocks like Circle offer a classic application play. They leverage the infrastructure of public blockchains, paying only a small fee for the privilege. He also suggests that Circle and other crypto equities are using blockchains to create new businesses.

He concludes by stating, “We believe many parts of the crypto ecosystem will thrive over the long term in a symbiotic way. The core infrastructure will grow more valuable as more applications use it, and the applications will become valuable as the infrastructure continuously improves. It’s why I think the best way forward is to own them both.”

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Since their inception in July 2024, spot Ether ETFs have been eagerly awaiting the inclusion of a staking component. Many industry experts believe that without it, the product seems incomplete. The filings by REX Shares offer a “unique structure”.

James Seyffart, an ETF analyst, highlighted the distinctiveness of the REX Shares filing, stating that the ETFs are structured as c-corps, a rarity in the ETF world. While the launch date remains undisclosed, Seyffart suggests that it could occur within the forthcoming weeks.

In the filing, REX Shares clarified that the fund, as a C-corporation, will incur both current and deferred tax expenses. These liabilities, if any, will be reflected in the Fund’s Net Asset Value.

REX Shares’ proposed Solana and Ether staking ETFs, Seyffart explains, are 40-act funds with a unique structure that bypass the 19b-4 process. This comes after the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postponed its decision on Bitwise’s proposal to add staking to its Ether ETF.

Seyffart predicts that the two crypto ETFs could be launched soon, with the funds gaining spot exposure to Ether and Solana through Cayman subsidiaries. He believes the imminent launch would demonstrate clever regulatory and legal maneuvering.

Despite the structure having its pros and cons, one significant advantage, according to Seyffart, is that it could secure some level of approval from the SEC. Nate Geraci, President of ETF Store, concurred, stating that REX Shares took “the regulatory end-around.”

Geraci also suggested that two crypto ETFs’ launch is imminent, with both ETFs intending to stake at least 50% of Solana and Ether. The introduction of staking has been a much-anticipated feature in the industry.

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The proposed Bitwise NEAR ETF is poised to offer investors the chance to gain exposure to the NEAR token via a conventional brokerage account, eliminating the need for direct digital asset ownership. This is akin to how the Bitwise spot Bitcoin ETF, BITB, provides exposure to Bitcoin.

Bitwise’s move to register with the regulator comes almost two weeks following its application to initiate a Bitwise NEAR ETF in Delaware, perceived as a precursor to an ETF launch.

NEAR, the native token of the Near protocol, was trading at $2.30 per token, reflecting a 2.15% decline over the past day, based on data from The Block’s NEAR price page.

Alongside NEAR, several other companies have proposed establishing ETFs that track digital assets such as DOGE, PENGU, SEI, and TRX, as reported by The Block.

Note: The Block, an autonomous media outlet providing news, research, and data, is majorly backed by Foresight Ventures as of November 2023. Foresight Ventures also invests in other crypto enterprises. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block operates independently, delivering unbiased, significant, and timely crypto industry information. See our present financial disclosures. © 2025 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

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This update was shared by Bitwise in a post dated April 14. The combined value of these Bitcoin stacks saw a marginal rise of 2.2%, reaching a collective worth of $56.7 billion. This calculation is based on the BTC price of $82,445 per coin.

Bitwise’s report also highlighted that the number of public companies investing in Bitcoin increased to 79 in Q1, with 12 companies making their first-ever Bitcoin purchase. The largest among these first-time buyers was Hong Kong-based construction firm Ming Shing, whose subsidiary Lead Benefit purchased a total of 833 BTC over the quarter.

The runner-up in this category was YouTube alternative platform Rumble, favored by the far-right, which purchased 188 BTC in mid-March. Another notable first-time Bitcoin buyer was HK Asia Holdings Limited, an investment firm from Hong Kong, whose share price nearly doubled in value following the announcement of their single Bitcoin purchase.

Japanese investment firm Metaplanet also made headlines with its purchase of an additional 319 Bitcoin, at an average price of 11.8 million yen ($82,770) per coin. This acquisition takes the firm’s total Bitcoin holdings to 4,525, currently valued at $383.2 million. Despite spending nearly $406 million on its Bitcoin stack, Metaplanet saw its stock go down by 0.5% on the Tokyo Stock Exchange as of the April 15 lunch break.

With this latest Bitcoin acquisition, Metaplanet now ranks tenth among the world’s largest public companies holding Bitcoin. The list is led by Jack Dorsey’s Block, Inc., holding 8,485 BTC, as per data from Coinkite. Despite a brief dip to under $75,000 on April 7 due to newly imposed global tariffs by the US, Bitcoin is currently trading around $84,440 and has seen an upward trend of around 2.3% since the end of Q1.

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