BTC Price Faces Challenges Amidst Economic Concerns

Market data reveals that BTC recently saw a decline of 1.6%, reaching a low of $87,471 on Bitstamp. This drop is attributed to looming macroeconomic volatility, particularly the potential U.S. government shutdown and President Trump’s tariff threats on Canada. Crypto liquidations exceeded $250 million, with long positions being the most affected, according to CoinGlass data.

Potential for a Bullish Divergence Against Silver

Despite these challenges, there are signs of optimism. Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe highlighted a potential bullish divergence in the BTC/XAG ratio, suggesting that Bitcoin may find a bottom soon. This sentiment is supported by record highs in gold and silver prices, indicating a possible rotation of investments towards Bitcoin.

Market Sentiment and Future Predictions

Traders are closely monitoring the low time frame BTC price trading range. Analyst CrypNuevo warned that losing the mid-range could signal further declines, possibly to the low $80,000s. Nevertheless, any short-term price pumps present potential short opportunities for attentive traders.

The week’s macroeconomic events, including the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates, are anticipated to significantly impact Bitcoin’s trajectory. As per the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a rate cut remains low, which may influence market dynamics in the coming days.

In conclusion, while the Bitcoin price faces short-term pressures, market participants should stay informed about macroeconomic developments and seek opportunities amidst the volatility.

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Although Bitcoin Price sees buyers stepping in, the market structure suggests that this could merely be a relief rally unless there’s a noticeable increase in follow-through volume.

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Price

The daily chart illustrates Bitcoin Price reacting from a crucial demand zone near $100K. After facing a sharp rejection from the $114K region, BTC has formed a lower low and is now retesting a previous breakdown level. This level has transformed into a significant supply zone, ranging from $106K to $110K. Both the 100-day (yellow) and 200-day (blue) moving averages have flipped above the current Bitcoin Price, now acting as dynamic resistance.

Moreover, the RSI remains below 50, indicating weak momentum for the time being. If buyers manage to reclaim the $110K order block and maintain their position above it, the next resistance could be around $114K. Conversely, failure to reclaim could push the Bitcoin Price back into the $100K zone or even lower.

4-Hour Chart Analysis

The 4-Hour chart shows Bitcoin Price unfolding within a falling wedge, which it is attempting to break out from. The price has climbed back into a short-term resistance zone near $106K following a clean reaction from the $100K demand zone.

The RSI has slightly cooled off after reaching near-overbought levels, indicating signs of consolidation. A clear breakout above the wedge and a strong close above $110K would signal potential continuation. However, if this zone rejects the Bitcoin Price again, another dip to the $100K level would be expected.

On-Chain Analysis: BTC Participation

On-chain data reveals a concerning decline in active addresses. Despite Bitcoin Price holding above $100K, the number of unique daily participants on the network has been steadily decreasing since early 2025. This divergence between price and network activity suggests that the current rally lacks broad support from increased usage or transaction volume.

Such a drop in active addresses often signals weakening retail or organic demand. If this trend persists, it could cast doubts on the sustainability of the current Bitcoin Price levels, especially if no new participants are entering the market.

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The investigation, led by crypto researcher Eye, uncovered the link in a Saturday post on X. The whale’s main wallet, known as ereignis.eth, was found to be connected to another Ethereum Name Service (ENS) name, garrettjin.eth. This link traces directly to Jin’s verified X (Twitter) account, @GarrettBullish.

The Mysterious Hyperliquid Whale

Eye’s findings suggest that the ENS name ereignis.eth (which means “event” in German) is a crucial identifier for the operations on Hyperliquid/Hyperunit. This wallet’s activities align closely with Jin’s known business endeavors, including transfers to staking contracts and addresses backed by exchanges he once associated with, such as Huobi (HTX).

Moreover, the whale’s wallet was involved in transactions linked to BitForex addresses and Binance deposits. These funds were reportedly used to execute large Bitcoin trades, including a staggering $735 million BTC short.

BitForex and Its Fraught History

Garrett Jin’s tenure at BitForex, from 2017 to 2020, was marked by controversy. The exchange faced accusations of falsifying trading volumes and was flagged by Japan’s Financial Services Agency for unregistered operations. In 2024, BitForex suffered a $57 million loss from its hot wallets, leading to withdraw freezes and its eventual shutdown following team detentions in China. Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission also issued a warning for potential fraud, with users reporting millions in unrecovered funds.

After BitForex’s collapse, Jin launched several ventures, including WaveLabs VC, TanglePay, IotaBee, and GroupFi. However, many of these projects have since stalled. In 2024, he introduced XHash.com, a platform for institutional Ethereum staking, which investigators claim may have facilitated questionable fund activities. Subsequently, Jin removed XHash from his social media profiles, though it remains visible on his Telegram account.

Skepticism Surrounding the Allegations

Despite the investigation’s findings, not all are convinced. Crypto analyst Quinten François expressed doubts about the alleged connections between the Hyperliquid whale and Jin. He questioned the simplicity of the evidence, stating, “Why would you have an .eth name leading to your X handle in a wallet that directly connects to market manipulation wallets and other crime-related wallets?” François suggests that the setup might be “too simple to be true.”

This developing story highlights the complexities and potential risks within the cryptocurrency market, especially concerning large-scale operations and regulatory scrutiny.

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Bitcoin Price Breaks Barriers

Bitcoin has managed to maintain its position above the significant $110,500 support zone, initiating a strong recovery wave. The cryptocurrency settled above the $112,500 resistance level, marking a new phase of upward momentum. This movement was further solidified by a break above a key bearish trend line, with resistance marked at $112,200 on the BTC/USD hourly chart.

The bulls successfully propelled the Bitcoin Price above the $113,500 and $114,000 thresholds. A peak was recorded at $114,771, with Bitcoin now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which marks the rise from a $108,677 swing low to the $114,771 peak. Currently, Bitcoin trades above $114,000 and the 100 hourly Simple Moving Average.

Resistance Levels Ahead

The immediate resistance for Bitcoin Price is observed near the $114,750 level, with the first major resistance at $115,000. A breakthrough above $115,500 could potentially drive the price higher, targeting the $116,500 and $117,500 levels. In this scenario, the next significant barrier for bulls would be $118,000.

Potential Decline in Bitcoin Price

If Bitcoin Price fails to surpass the $115,000 resistance, a new decline could be on the horizon. Initial support rests near the $113,500 level, followed by a major support at $112,500. Further losses might push the price towards the $111,750 zone, with the main support level at $110,500. A drop below this point could impede Bitcoin’s potential recovery in the short term.

Technical Indicators

• Hourly MACD: Gaining momentum in the bullish zone.
• Hourly RSI: Currently above the 50 level, indicating strength.
• Major Support Levels: $113,500 and $112,500.
• Major Resistance Levels: $114,750 and $115,000.

As Bitcoin Price navigates these critical resistance levels, market watchers remain curious about its next moves. The interplay between support and resistance will be pivotal in determining Bitcoin’s trajectory.

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The latest expiry, scheduled for Friday, has traders on edge as it follows a sharp price rejection at $117,000. This event could significantly impact the market, with bullish strategies currently appearing more favorable. However, the presence of macroeconomic uncertainties means downside risks cannot be ignored.

Understanding the Current Bitcoin Options Landscape

Deribit continues to lead the market, boasting an impressive $17.4 billion in open interest for this Friday’s Bitcoin options. In contrast, OKX and CME each hold $1.9 billion. The domination by call (buy) options over put (sell) contracts highlights the persistent optimism among cryptocurrency traders.

In September, the trend remains consistent, with put open interest trailing 20% behind the $12.6 billion in call positions. The final outcome hinges on Bitcoin’s price at 8:00 am UTC on Friday, with an initial edge for call holders if prices stay above $112,000.

Key Levels and Strategies in Bitcoin Options

The market positioning at Deribit indicates that neutral-to-bearish bets are targeting the $95,000 to $110,000 range, which is increasingly unlikely to be realized. A substantial portion of call contracts, totaling $6.6 billion, have been placed at highly optimistic levels, waiting at $120,000 and above. This leaves approximately $3.3 billion in realistic play.

Interestingly, about 81% of put options at Deribit are set at $110,000 or lower, with only $1.4 billion remaining active. This setup significantly favors neutral-to-bullish outcomes. However, this analysis excludes more intricate strategies like selling puts to gain upside exposure.

Market Sentiment and Economic Influences

The Bitcoin options delta skew currently shows moderate fear at 13%, with put options trading at a premium over equivalent call contracts. Under neutral conditions, this indicator should fall between -6% and 6%, suggesting that whales and market makers are wary of downside risks at the current $113,500 level.

Three potential scenarios based on current price trends are as follows:

• Between $107,000 and $110,000: $1 billion in calls vs. $2 billion in puts, tilting the balance towards puts by $1 billion.
• Between $110,100 and $112,000: $1.4 billion in calls vs. $1.4 billion in puts, resulting in a balanced outcome.
• Between $112,100 and $115,000: $1.66 billion in calls vs. $1 billion in puts, favoring calls by $660 million.

Despite the current bullish tilt, bearish strategies cannot be entirely dismissed. Market sentiment may shift depending on key macroeconomic releases due on Thursday, including U.S. GDP data, weekly jobless claims, and upcoming Treasury auctions.

With an increasingly fragile economic backdrop, there is support for additional interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, typically a bullish driver for risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies. Nonetheless, persistent concerns over labor market weakness continue to fuel risk aversion, which negatively impacts Bitcoin’s price.

Ultimately, while the September monthly Bitcoin options expiry leans in favor of bulls, a significant drop below the $112,000 mark remains a possibility.

This analysis is for informational purposes and should not be construed as legal or investment advice. The views expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Cointelegraph.

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The concept of Pre-Euphoria is gaining traction among analysts. This phase is identified by a specific metric that measures the 30-day difference between long-term and short-term holder Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratios. Notably, this pattern has been a precursor to significant price movements in past Bitcoin bull cycles.

Understanding the Bitcoin Pre-Euphoria Phase

The Bitcoin Pre-Euphoria phase has been observed before the parabolic rallies of 2013, 2017, and 2021. Current MVRV levels are ascending, yet they remain below the thresholds reached during previous cycle peaks. This suggests the market is still in the early stages of upward momentum.

Historically, Bitcoin’s cycles have demonstrated a consistent pattern. Initially, a period of accumulation precedes a breakout. These Pre-Euphoria zones typically span several months before Bitcoin prices surge to new highs. The present market structure mirrors this past trend, as Bitcoin has been following a familiar path since bottoming out in 2022.

Key Price Levels and Market Dynamics

Market analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that Bitcoin was trading within a constrained range before a sudden drop. The $114,250 level had been a robust support, but Bitcoin flash-crashed to $112,000, settling below $113,000. Meanwhile, resistance at $117,290 remains intact, creating a short-term range. A breakout above this resistance could signal a momentum shift.

Bearish Patterns and Short-Term Risks

Despite the bullish long-term signals, some traders are cautious about potential downturns. Analyst Captain Faibik noted a breakdown in a rising wedge pattern on the daily chart, forming a bearish flag, which might lead to further price drops. Faibik also reported a 15% decline since early August, suggesting late buyers may be trapped.

Moreover, there are signs of large holders shifting to altcoins, indicating a possible adjustment in market exposure due to the current uncertainties surrounding BTC’s price.

The Bitcoin Pre-Euphoria phase is a critical period in the cryptocurrency market cycle, offering potential opportunities for strategic investments while posing challenges for traders navigating short-term risks.

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Technical Analysis of Bitcoin’s Daily Chart

On the daily chart, Bitcoin has executed a robust rebound from a crucial order block, also known as a demand zone. This move highlights that buyers are maintaining control at this critical juncture. The rebound was further validated by a breakout above the 100-day moving average, a level that previously posed dynamic resistance.

This development signals a resurgence in bullish momentum. However, traders should remain vigilant for a potential short-term pullback to the broken moving average, near the $112K mark. Should this retest hold, Bitcoin’s broader structure would continue to support its upward trajectory toward the all-time high resistance zone.

BTC’s 4-Hour Chart Insights

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has shown a definitive Change of Character (CHOCH), marking a transition from a bearish to a bullish structure. After surpassing previous swing highs, Bitcoin is currently consolidating just below the $117K resistance level.

The green decision point zone at $112K remains a crucial level to watch. A retracement into this order block would not jeopardize the bullish outlook; rather, it could serve as a healthy correction before the next upward movement. Remaining above this base sustains the path toward retesting all-time highs.

On-Chain Analysis: Miner Behavior

Examining on-chain data reveals that the transfer of Bitcoin from miner wallets to exchanges often indicates supply-side pressure. Peaks in miner-to-exchange flows have historically aligned with market tops, as increased distribution heightens selling pressure.

Currently, the 30-day moving average of miner-to-exchange flow has decreased to its lowest levels recently. This decline suggests that miners are reducing their distribution and possibly accumulating Bitcoin instead. This trend aligns with Bitcoin’s recent surge above $115K, reinforcing bullish sentiment from miners.

In summary, the combination of a technical structure shift and miner accumulation paints a positive outlook. As long as the $112K support level holds, Bitcoin appears well-positioned to maintain momentum and potentially challenge its all-time highs once again.

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Bitcoin Supercycle: Price Analysis and Predictions

The Bitcoin supercycle is becoming a focal point for analysts, with recent chart patterns indicating significant price movements. Specifically, Bitcoin has formed two inverse head-and-shoulders (IH&S) patterns on the weekly chart. This bullish formation consists of three troughs, with a lower “head” flanked by two higher “shoulders.” A breakout above the neckline typically signals a strong upward trend.

Currently, Bitcoin’s weekly chart showcases two IH&S patterns. The first, a smaller pattern, emerged in November 2024 and broke above the neckline in July at $112,000. This breakout suggests a potential rise to $170,000, marking a 49% increase from current levels.

A Larger Pattern and Potential Highs

The second, more extensive IH&S pattern has been in formation since March 2021, projecting even higher targets. Bitcoin surpassed the neckline at approximately $73,000 during a post-US election rally, reaching over $100,000. After retesting $74,400 in April, Bitcoin confirmed the breakout, hinting at a continued uptrend towards $360,000, a 217% increase from current prices.

Analyst Merlijn The Trader highlights this development, stating, “The Bitcoin inverse head and shoulders of dreams has now doubled. This isn’t a pattern. It’s the supercycle ignition.”

Institutional Demand and Bitcoin’s Growth

The potential for a Bitcoin supercycle is bolstered by renewed interest from institutional investors. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen significant inflows, with $1.15 billion recorded over three consecutive days. Wednesday alone accounted for $752 million, the highest since mid-July, indicating a resurgence in institutional demand.

According to market intelligence firm Santiment, “Money is moving back into Bitcoin ETFs at a rapid rate as retailers impatiently drop out of crypto. Previous crypto rallies were boosted by inflow spikes like this.”

As always, investing in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency involves risks, and investors are advised to conduct thorough research before making decisions.

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The Bitcoin price hovered below $112,000 over the weekend, sparking fears of a potential 10% correction. As the week progresses, traders are keenly eyeing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) announcements, which could significantly impact market dynamics.

Bitcoin Price Faces Resistance

Bitcoin price action is currently coiling below a critical threshold, with traders anticipating a potential resistance/support flip. Notable trader CrypNuevo identified $106,700 as a vital level to watch on the downside. If previous range lows act as resistance, Bitcoin may face liquidation attempts at this level.

Analysts are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s potential drop, with a worst-case scenario suggesting a dip below $100,000. Fibonacci retracement levels align with this prediction, marking it as a crucial line in the sand for Bitcoin investors.

Institutional “Re-rotation” to Bitcoin

The buzz around institutional capital shifting from Bitcoin to Ether seems to be cooling. Recent data shows significant inflows to BTC exchange-traded products (ETPs), contrasting with net outflows from Ether ETPs. This renewed interest in Bitcoin suggests a “re-rotation” back to BTC among institutional investors.

Andre Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise, noted that Bitcoin ETPs added $444 million in just five days, while Ether ETPs saw over $900 million in net outflows. This shift indicates a renewed confidence in Bitcoin as a primary investment vehicle.

Bitcoin Whales Influence Market Trends

Bitcoin whales, or large-scale investors, are currently reducing their exposure, a trend reminiscent of the 2022 bear market. Over the past month, whale reserves have decreased by more than 100,000 BTC. On-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant highlights this as a sign of increased risk aversion among major players.

The significant reduction in whale reserves suggests potential downward pressure on Bitcoin prices in the coming weeks, as large volumes of liquidity move in and out of exchange order books. This behavior can significantly influence short-term price action.

Futures Market Signals Caution

The Bitcoin futures market is under scrutiny as liquidity wanes. CryptoQuant’s analysis of the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio reveals lower lows despite price expansions. This pattern, characteristic of bull market corrections, indicates potential concerns within the futures market.

While institutional activity continues to influence volume, the market’s future hinges on liquidity recovery. A failure to regain liquidity, despite positive catalysts, could signal a more serious situation for Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

This article serves as a market analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.

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As Bitcoin embarks on its seventh week of the current price uptrend, the possibility of a Bitcoin correction is becoming increasingly likely. Historical data suggests that such corrections often occur after five to seven weeks of uptrend, leaving investors and analysts speculating on the future trajectory of BTC.

Bitcoin Correction: A Historical Perspective

Rekt Capital, a well-known trader and analyst, recently highlighted that Bitcoin is approaching a critical phase in its second “price discovery uptrend” since the 2024 halving. Traditionally, after each halving, Bitcoin experiences a series of uptrends, each followed by a correction. This cyclical pattern has been consistent throughout Bitcoin’s history.

According to Rekt Capital, the first price discovery uptrend typically concludes between week six and eight, while the second ends between week five and seven. With Bitcoin entering its seventh week, the market is on edge, anticipating a potential downturn.

Analyzing the Current BTC Price Uptrend

The current BTC price uptrend has seen Bitcoin’s value remain below $120,000. However, a chart shared earlier in the year suggests a potential target just shy of $160,000. Despite this optimism, the risk of a correction looms large. Past cycles have shown that corrections can begin as early as week six or as late as week eight, with 2025 marking a similar pattern.

In 2025, Bitcoin’s initial corrective phase saw the price drop from nearly $110,000 to below $75,000, marking a significant 30% dip. This kind of volatility is not unprecedented in post-halving cycles, underscoring the market’s inherent unpredictability.

Potential for New BTC Price Highs in Q4

Despite the looming threat of a Bitcoin correction, there is hope for new all-time highs later this year. Daan Crypto Trades, another market analyst, pointed out that while BTCUSD has yet to deliver consecutive “green” months in August and September, a correction now could set the stage for a robust Q4 rally.

Historically, Bitcoin has often experienced a sharp dip followed by explosive growth in Q4. This pattern, if repeated, could lead to significant gains by year’s end.

Data from CoinGlass shows BTCUSD has risen by 2.1% in August, exceeding the 1.8% historical average. However, September typically sees a 3.8% decline, suggesting that any current gains might be short-lived.

Investors are advised to exercise caution and conduct thorough research before making any trading decisions. The inherent risks of the crypto market require a strategic and informed approach.

This analysis does not constitute financial advice. Every investment decision should be made with careful consideration and awareness of potential risks.

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