As detailed in a report by 10x Research, the October crypto market crash transformed a bullish phase into a period of deleveraging. It wiped out approximately $1.3 trillion in value, representing nearly 30% of the total market capitalization at that time.

Understanding the USDe Crash

Ethena’s USDe, which operates on synthetic collateral and hedging rather than traditional fiat reserves, suffered a “sharp loss of confidence,” according to analysts. Data from CoinMarketCap shows USDe’s market cap plummeted from nearly $14.7 billion on October 9 to about $6.4 billion in just over two months.

The USDe crash temporarily disrupted the stablecoin’s peg, causing its value to drop to approximately $0.65 on Binance. Guy Young, founder of Ethena Labs, attributed this to an internal oracle issue at the exchange, rather than issues with the stablecoin’s underlying mechanics. Despite the turmoil, USDe’s minting and redemption processes remained stable, with $2 billion redeemed within 24 hours across major decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms, showing only minor price deviations elsewhere.

Market Ripples Post-Crash

The October 10 market event stands as the largest liquidation in crypto history, with over $19 billion in positions liquidated, according to CoinGlass. This led to a massive $65 billion drop in open interest.

Since the USDe crash, market activity has diminished significantly. Trading volumes have halved, and US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have experienced approximately $5 billion in net outflows since late October. The report from 10x Research suggests this downturn is driven more by a strategic withdrawal of regulated capital than by retail investors.

Amid declining leverage and liquidity, Bitcoin (BTC) has decoupled from traditional assets like equities and gold, behaving more like an isolated risk asset rather than a macroeconomic hedge.

As the market continues to adjust post-crash, stakeholders are keenly observing how synthetic assets like USDe adapt and stabilize in this evolving landscape. The situation underscores the need for robust mechanisms and confidence-building measures within the crypto ecosystem.

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Understanding the SHIB Crash

The crash of Shiba Inu (SHIB) has been largely technical, with indicators hitting levels that generally signal a capitulation phase. This overselling has led to a temporary halt in the decline, as noted on TradingView charts. When assets dip into such oversold conditions, they often present two outcomes: an exhaustion selling leading to a rebound, or the onset of a prolonged downtrend.

Scenario 1: Short-term Rally

In the first scenario, Shiba Inu could experience a short-term rally towards its 50-day moving average. If the oversold bounce continues, SHIB might approach the $0.0000095-$0.000010 range, where both the 50-day and 20-day moving averages converge. However, if SHIB faces rejection at this level, it could signal merely a temporary respite, potentially leading to another test of recent lows.

Scenario 2: Sideways Stabilization

The second scenario involves sideways stabilization. If SHIB can maintain stability above the $0.0000080 mark, it could suggest a cessation of selling pressure and the start of an accumulation phase. Such a flat base would be indicative of a healthier medium-term recovery, although it requires time and reduced volatility.

Scenario 3: Potential Breakdown

The third scenario is a potential breakdown if the bounce does not sustain. Should SHIB close below its recent lows, the momentum could drag it into a deeper liquidity pocket around $0.0000070. While this is currently the least likely outcome due to the actual buy volume accompanying the oversold rebound, it remains a possibility.

Overall, Shiba Inu’s SHIB crash presents a complex situation with multiple potential outcomes. The market will need to navigate through these scenarios to determine SHIB’s future path, whether it be a short-term rally, stabilization, or further decline.

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In recent weeks, the Ethereum price crash has sparked intense discussions among crypto enthusiasts and analysts. Many are keen to understand the underlying causes and potential future targets for this leading altcoin.

Crypto analyst Marcus Corvinus has provided a comprehensive analysis, suggesting that the Ethereum price crash might be a temporary dip before a significant upward trend. According to Corvinus, Ethereum is poised for a breakout despite current market conditions.

Ethereum’s Current Market Action

Corvinus elaborates that Ethereum is demonstrating resilience, contrasting with Bitcoin’s recent performance. While Bitcoin has hit lower lows, Ethereum has maintained higher lows, suggesting strength amidst pressure. This divergence could indicate a brewing bullish momentum for Ethereum.

The analyst highlights a critical market indicator: the declining bearish volume observed since last month. This decline suggests that weak hands may be exiting the market, setting the stage for a bullish reversal.

Technical Indicators and Market Signals

One key technical indicator supporting Corvinus’s optimistic view is the Hidden Bullish Divergence RSI. While this indicator showed a lower low, Ethereum’s price formed a higher low, a classic signal of a potential strong continuation setup.

Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears oversold. Despite this, Ethereum has managed to sustain above July’s support levels during recent retests. This pattern is often seen as a precursor to an upward breakout.

The Calm Before the Storm?

Corvinus asserts that the current Ethereum price crash is not indicative of a long-term downtrend. Instead, it’s a consolidation phase likely to precede a significant price rally. His optimistic target remains between $7,000 and $8,000 for this cycle, with the breakout being a question of ‘when’ rather than ‘if’.

Other Expert Opinions

While Corvinus remains bullish, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes offers a more cautious perspective. Hayes suggests that Ethereum might still retrace to the psychological $3,000 mark before embarking on its next upward journey. He cites macroeconomic factors, such as the impact of US tariffs and sluggish job data, as potential roadblocks to immediate market liquidity.

At present, Ethereum is trading just below the $3,500 level, reflecting a 5% decline in the last 24 hours, as per CoinMarketCap data.

In conclusion, while the Ethereum price crash has raised concerns, analysts like Corvinus remain optimistic about its future prospects. The market’s next moves will likely hinge on both technical signals and broader economic conditions.

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The cryptocurrency market is currently witnessing a 3% decrease, which brings the total market cap to $3 trillion. Bitcoin’s value has fallen to $103,000, marking a 1.1% decline. Significant altcoins such as Ethereum, Solana, and XRP have experienced a drop up to 3%, while memecoins like Dogecoin, Litecoin, among others, continue to depreciate.

Prominent analyst Crypto Capo recently issued a stern warning, stating,“The worst is yet to come.” He emphasized that altcoins are undergoing a severe plunge, even though Bitcoin is still maintaining a value above $100K.

Memecoins are expected to suffer the most. Crypto Capo identifies two primary support levels for Bitcoin: initially at $93,000, followed by the main support zone between $60K and $70K. This could translate to a 35-45% downturn from the current values. The analyst suggests that in a full-scale capitulation or a Black Swan event, Ethereum could face a 45-55% drop and reach the $1000-$1200 range. Altcoins are predicted to decrease by 50-70% on average, while memecoins could see the worst of it, potentially crashing up to 60-80%.

The real downturn is expected to kick in once Bitcoin breaches the $100,000 threshold. This could trigger a swift escalation in bearish momentum. Crypto Capo also pointed out examples of altcoins that are already collapsing ahead of Bitcoin’s downturn.

Crypto Capo’s charts indicate that memecoins are on the verge of significant breakdowns. FARTCOIN is at risk of plummeting 61% to the first support zone around $0.38, and possibly face an 82% drop to $0.17 if the decline continues. RETARDIO is exhibiting weakness, being stuck below resistance. Despite multiple bounces, it remains in a lower range, showing fatigue. PEPE has initiated a bearish Head and Shoulders pattern, with a projected 70% drop.

Data from CryptoQuant reveals that altcoins are still deep in a slump. Altcoin Sherpa notes that the top gainers like Fartcoin, SPX, and HYPEUSDT are experiencing the hardest pullbacks, while the rest of the market suffers a slow, steady bleed. He anticipates coins like POPCAT to continue drifting lower, with no major liquidations or panic selling observed yet. Most altcoins appear weak, and the analyst currently sees no strong buy signals.

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe says altcoins have been stagnant for the past three months, merely retesting lows. He opines that this quiet phase could be the precursor to a major storm, with the greatest altcoin bull run yet to come.

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Mantra clarified that the project had not sold any tokens and that the team remains fully operational, continuing to probe the incident. Despite earlier comments from Mantra CEO John Mullin about a forthcoming post-mortem analysis, the new statement provides scant new information regarding the rapid transfer of OM tokens to exchanges and the ensuing liquidation cascade.

The statement also highlighted the existence of two variants of OM tokens; one is Ethereum-based (ERC-20) and the other operates on Mantra’s mainnet. As per the statement, “The incident almost exclusively involved ERC-20 OM, as ERC-20 OM makes up nearly the entire liquid market.”

The original ERC-20 OM token, launched in August 2020, has a capped supply of 888.8 million OM. As of April 15, 99.9% of these tokens were publicly circulating. On the other hand, Mantra mainnet OM tokens had a circulation of only 77.5 million, following the minting of an equivalent amount of OM by Mantra Chain in October 2024.

Mantra’s statement also noted a discrepancy in OM spot prices on OKX and Binance starting around 6:00 pm UTC, approximately an hour before the OM token crash. Mantra anticipates that more information from its exchange partners will “shed more light on these events,” and added, “We call on our centralized exchanges partners to help provide more transparency on trading activities during this period.”

The DeFi platform confirmed it is devising a support plan for OM, which includes a token buyback and supply burn. However, no specific timeline for the plan’s implementation was given. Following the crash, Star Xu, OKX CEO, labeled Mantra a “big scandal.” Meanwhile, Mantra CEO Mullin identified Binance as the largest holder of the OM token, referencing Etherscan records.

When Cointelegraph reached out to Mantra’s team for additional commentary on the April 16 statement, no response was received by the time of publication.

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Known as the ‘Charting Guy’, this anonymous cryptocurrency analyst on X (previously Twitter) has identified a potential Head and Shoulder pattern on the XRP chart. He has offered a deep dive into the potential impacts of this technical pattern, suggesting a possible crash in XRP’s price.

The Head and Shoulder pattern is a well-recognized bearish reversal signal. Its emergence in XRP’s price chart could indicate a shift from a bullish trend to a bearish one. The pattern typically comprises three peaks: the Left Shoulder, Head, and Right Shoulder. However, in XRP’s case, the Charting Guy observes two right shoulders and one head, a deviation that has led him to question the pattern’s validity.

Should the Head and Shoulder pattern materialize, it could trigger a major decline in XRP’s price, possibly plunging it to a low of $1.15. This dip aligns with a significant Fibonacci Golden Pocket retracement zone between 0.618 and 0.786.

While predicting this price crash as a ‘worst-case scenario’ for XRP, the analyst remains optimistic about XRP’s overall bullish market structure. He suggests that a decrease to $1.15 could serve as a healthy pullback in an overall bullish trend. Furthermore, he noted that XRP’s price has been maintaining the $2 mark on daily closes, indicating strong price action above support levels. This suggests a potential resumption of an upward trend, possibly leading to higher highs and lows for XRP.

Several critical price levels emerge from the Charting Guy’s analysis of XRP’s potential Head and Shoulder pattern. XRP has consistently closed daily candles above $2, this level is deemed as short-term support. XRP has also been wicking during recent pullbacks within a key range between $1.7 and $1.9. The analyst will closely monitor this region for any potential price rebound.

The Golden Pocket retracement zone, the ‘worst-case scenario’ for XRP price, lies between $1.15 and $1.30. In case of a more profound price correction, lower support levels have been marked from $1.19 to $0.91. For resistance levels, $2.27 is identified as a key price point with an upper resistance range identified between $3.14 and $3.32 where XRP could rally if bullish momentum resumes.

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Bloomberg reports reveal that Coinbase’s stock has seen a decline of over 30% since the quarter’s commencement, replicating its worst performance since the late 2022 FTX exchange crash. This downturn is an echo of a larger trend impacting almost all major stocks linked to crypto, inclusive of Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY.TO), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and Core Scientific (CORZ).

The cryptocurrency market at large is facing turbulence, with Bitcoin (BTC) experiencing a drop of over 20% from its peak, and Ethereum (ETH) losing more than 45% of its value. These changes are occurring in the backdrop of President Donald Trump’s intensification of a “global trade war”, inciting worries about the US economy’s health. This has been further intensified by economic data, propelling the S&P 500 Index (GSPC) towards its poorest quarter since mid-2022.

Owen Lau, an analyst at Oppenheimer, pointed out that the current market situation isn’t primarily dictated by fundamental factors. Lau emphasized that macroeconomic aspects such as tariffs and potential trade war are significantly swaying investor sentiment. The increasing risk of a recession has reportedly contributed to the uneasiness, causing higher-risk crypto-linked stocks to exhibit even more volatility than Bitcoin itself.

The current status of the cryptocurrency market starkly contrasts the optimistic sentiment that dominated the scene at the year’s beginning, post-Trump’s election. Bitcoin hit an all-time high of over $109,000 on Inauguration Day. However, Bitcoin prices took a hit after Trump announced a strategic reserve for the leading crypto, but failed to allocate taxpayer money to expand it. Now, Bitcoin trades around $83,000, still above pre-election numbers, but far from its record high.

Despite the downturn, the cryptocurrency industry continues to gain traction in Washington and is progressively aligning with traditional financial systems. Yet, this increasing influence hasn’t resulted in a market rebound. Connor Loewen, a cryptocurrency analyst at 3iQ, expressed doubt about the current investor sentiment, stating, “What we saw a couple of months ago, I don’t know how much crazier it can get than that. I think we’re going to have to be looking for new catalysts.”

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In a recent discussion, Severino suggested that Bitcoin’s price is at risk of a more significant crash due to the S&P 500’s monthly LMACD starting to display bearish tendencies. This change is critical, as data from IntoTheBlock indicates that Bitcoin and the stock market continue to have a positively correlated price trajectory.

Severino believes that if the Bitcoin bulls can diverge from this bearish setup within the next 20 days, it could result in a bullish trend. However, if they fail to do this, Bitcoin could suffer a severe decline, potentially worse than what it has already endured.

If this bearish setup is confirmed by the end of the month, it could signal the beginning of a bear market or a Black Swan event. This scenario has happened twice in the past when similar crossovers occurred. It’s important to note that Bitcoin has already dipped to a low of $76,000 recently, raising concerns that a bear market may already have begun.

Despite this, crypto authorities like BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believe that the bull market still holds for Bitcoin. Hayes pointed out that Bitcoin has experienced a 30% correction from its most recent all-time high (ATH), which is not unusual during a bull run. Hayes anticipates that Bitcoin will bounce back once the US Federal Reserve starts to relax its monetary policies.

Even in light of the recent crash, Kevin Capital, a crypto analyst, is optimistic about Bitcoin’s future. He insists that Bitcoin is still performing as expected and that the currency could potentially test the range between $70,000 and $75,000, which he believes would be acceptable.

According to Capital, Bitcoin’s price could stay afloat if it maintains a key market structure and if the 3-day MACD resets. He suggested that positive macro data could assist Bitcoin in remaining above critical support levels. Today, the US CPI data will be released, and if it indicates a slowdown in inflation, it could provide some market relief. In Capital’s view, a single positive inflation report could reverse the current situation.

At the time of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $81,860, representing a 2% increase in the last 24 hours, as per CoinMarketCap data.

The post “Bitcoin’s Price Danger: Further Downturn Looms as S&P’s Monthly LMACD Turns Bearish – 20 Days for Bulls to Act” appeared first on Crypto Market Insights: Dive In with CryptoUpdate.io.

Recent market instability has adversely affected Bitcoin’s valuation, leading to less than optimistic forecasts from top tier analysts. On March 6, Severino used X (previously known as Twitter) to caution that Bitcoin could be on the brink of a substantial pullback, potentially setting new record lows. He anticipates a drop to between $84,800 and $83,600.

This bearish prediction is reinforced by the recent emergence of an LTF Head and Shoulder pattern on the Bitcoin chart. This pattern, recognizable by its three peaks on a price chart, is a commonly used indicator of a possible shift from a bullish to a bearish trend.

As per Severino’s chart, Bitcoin’s price trajectory appears to form a symmetrical triangle with an internal wave-like structure labeled A-B-C-D-E. The triangle suggests a pattern of lower highs and higher lows, while the internal waves hint at sideways movement with a slight bias towards completing the triangle.

If the Head and Shoulder pattern holds true, Bitcoin’s price might descend to the triangle’s lower boundary around the mid $80,000 region. This would likely test the next crucial support area and complete the D wave of the chart.

Despite this potential drop, Severino also forecasts a possible rebound to new highs. After reaching the mid-$80,000 mark, Bitcoin could rally towards the E wave in the triangle, which is positioned around $90,000.

However, another deeper pullback may follow this rebound to $90,000. An arrow on the right side of Severino’s chart indicates a potential decline towards $83,600 to $80,200 after the E wave rally.

While some view this steep drop as the start of a bear market, others see it as a potential bear trap. ‘Crypto Caesar’, another market expert, suggests that this drop could merely be a bear trap, shaking out weak hands before a final bull run, with Bitcoin potentially peaking above $110,000 as the bull market concludes.

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XBTETH.P: +0.65%

Bitcoin closed August 2024 with its second-worst monthly performance of the year, registering an 8.6% decline. This loss trails only April’s dramatic 14.76% plunge. As this red monthly close alarms investors, the crypto community holds mixed expectations for September. While some anticipate a Bitcoin price recovery, others foresee continued bearish momentum, with one analyst predicting a major drop in price.

Will September See Another Bitcoin Price Decline?

A crypto analyst, known as @thedefivillian on X (formerly Twitter), has hinted at a potential price crash for Bitcoin this September. According to the analyst, the last two months have experienced significant price drops for the leading cryptocurrency, and September is likely to follow the same pattern.

In particular, the analyst points out that the 5th day of each recent month has triggered a Bitcoin price crash. On July 5, the price plummeted below $55,000, and on August 5, it fell further, dipping below $50,000.

With September’s bearish trend looming, the analyst suggests that another crash could be imminent. “September 5 is approaching fast. Are you ready for another traumatic event?” the X post ominously states.

If the trend continues, Bitcoin might experience another significant crash on September 5. Based on recent patterns, where each crash has been more severe than the previous one, a potential drop on September 5 could drive the BTC price below $40,000.

A Historically Bearish Month

Historically, September has been a notably bearish month for Bitcoin. This sentiment is further supported by the fact that the month has already started in the red, with BTC struggling to reclaim the $60,000 level, as per data from Coinglass.

September stands out as one of the most bearish months on average, being one of the only two months with consistent negative returns in both average and median metrics. Over the past 12 years, September has closed negative for Bitcoin nine times. If this trend persists, September 2024 might be even more challenging than August.

However, there is hope for Bitcoin investors. Historically, September has often been the final bearish month before the onset of a bull market. This suggests that investors might only have to endure one more month of losses before a potential bull run begins.

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