Key on-chain data reveals an unexpected trend – despite Bitcoin prices lingering near record highs, major stakeholders are not transferring their cryptocurrency to exchanges. This, according to a post shared on July 23 by CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain, indicates a firm belief in the longevity of Bitcoin’s price surge.

The Bitcoin Flow Pulse (BFP) indicator displays a notably low volume of Bitcoin moving towards exchanges, even after the digital currency recorded a milestone high of $123,091 according to CoinMarketCap. Traditionally, a rise in BTC inflow to exchanges hinted at a potential sell-off, increasing supply and often leading to a price decline. The lack of such a surge now is seen by Arab Chain as a positive sign of steadfast holders.

Bitcoin’s price trajectory reflects this balance between confidence and caution. Although the digital asset has risen 16.2% over the past month and 8.9% in the past two weeks, it has entered a consolidation phase following its all-time high nine days ago. CoinGecko data shows it trading between $118,042 and $120,222 in the past 24 hours, with resistance near the $123,000 mark.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant highlights a surge in retail selling pressure, especially on Binance. Inflows from smaller traders have significantly increased on the exchange, and Net Taker Volume has turned negative, likely indicating a bearish sentiment among this group. However, whales in the market are snapping up everything, with on-chain data showing that $200 million in BTC was withdrawn from exchanges yesterday. This suggests that big investors are taking advantage of the fear among retail traders.

The market currently teeters on a precarious balance. While low exchange inflows suggested by the BFP indicate strong conviction among holders, there are also signs of profit-taking and increased retail selling that introduce near-term obstacles that need to be considered.

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While BTC experienced a dip down to $116,500 this week, ETH saw daily gains and hit a new weekly high of $3,090. This price momentum for ETH is speculated to be driven by capital rotation from Bitcoin, as noted by Swissblock, an analytics firm. Bitcoin’s previous four bullish phases lasted from 15 to 30 days, and with the current rally hitting day 12, there could be a move towards profit-taking in Bitcoin, thereby channeling more capital to altcoins like ETH.

ETH’s strength is also evident in the ETH/BTC pair dynamics. For the first time since May 24, the one-day ETH/BTC chart revealed a bullish structure break that signals a trend reversal. More importantly, ETH/BTC has managed to stay above its 200-day moving average for the first time in a year, indicating medium to long-term strength.

Ted Pillows, an ETH advocate, highlighted that the relative strength index (RSI) for the ETH/BTC weekly chart has finally broken a three-year downtrend. The presence of an upcoming golden cross further strengthens the case for a significant trend shift.

With Bitcoin’s dominance decreasing, these combined signals point to a promising altseason where Ether could potentially outpace Bitcoin in the weeks to come.

A fractal analysis by crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader suggests that ETH could follow a path similar to Bitcoin’s 2018–2021 market cycle. This could turn the rally from April’s $1,550 low into a 1,110% “vertical phase,” potentially driving ETH up to approximately $18,205.

However, it’s crucial to remember that while intriguing, fractal analysis is speculative in nature and lacks empirical, peer-reviewed validation. Its interpretive nature also makes it challenging to predict exact outcomes. Yet despite these limitations, bullish ETH supporters continue to remain hopeful.

From a technical perspective, analyst Daan Crypto suggests the immediate target for ETH lies at $4,000 after moving into the upper half of an 18-month cycle range. The trader mentioned, “ETH has moved into the upper half of its massive cycle range. $2.8K & $4K are the only levels you’ll need on the higher timeframe.”

As always, every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should do their own research before making a decision.

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Renowned crypto analyst MIRZA, in a recent TradingView post, raised the possibility of a significant Bitcoin crash that could further destabilize the market. He highlights the increasing vulnerability of Bitcoin and the emergence of bearish patterns on its price chart.

One key bearish progression was Bitcoin’s failure to rise beyond $111,000, despite being close last week. This resistance level coincides with the previous all-time high, indicating that the digital asset lacks the power necessary for continued growth. This lack of momentum resulted in a decline towards the $103,000 mark as bears regained control.

This pessimistic decline implies the formation of a potential double top or a lower high structure – both negative indicators suggesting the end of an upward trend. MIRZA anticipates a liquidity grab at lower levels, with a potential crash of over 15%, pushing it under $90,000 and possibly as low as $85,000 before finding a bottom.

However, not all hope is lost. If Bitcoin manages to rise above $107,000 and maintain it, the upward trend might still continue. Another analyst, RLinda, echoes this sentiment, suggesting that Bitcoin could range between $102,500 and $106,200 for some time before deciding its direction.

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However, the market’s ecstasy soon dwindled, and BTC experienced a sharp correction, plummeting below $77,000. Bettors in a $5.4 million Polymarket betting pool recently projected a 61% chance of BTC reaching $110,000 in 2025. This would be a substantial gain from the March Bitcoin price, albeit not significantly more than the January record.

The decentralized betting pool also anticipates a 68% chance that BTC will crash to $70,000 in 2025. Despite the potential price fluctuations, seven prominent financial technology businesses from traditional finance and the blockchain sector predict Bitcoin’s market cap will continue to thrive. They attribute this growth to the constant expansion of the dollar supply by the Federal Reserve and anticipate a Bitcoin “melt up” through 2030.

These notable companies include Standard Chartered, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Block, Coinbase, BlackRock, and Ark Invest, each of which holds optimistic views on Bitcoin’s potential growth. They anticipate significant price increases, with some predicting values of up to $1.5 million by 2030.

These predictions reflect the increasing institutional interest in cryptocurrencies and the growing recognition of Bitcoin’s potential to revolutionize the financial sector. As traditional financial players continue to embrace cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin’s market position is expected to strengthen, potentially leading to high returns for investors.

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Bitcoin demonstrated a commendable recovery wave that exceeded the $81,000 benchmark. Currently, it’s trading above $81,500 and the 100 hourly Simple Moving Average. However, a short-term bullish trend line support at $83,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data from Kraken) was broken.

If Bitcoin manages to clear the $82,500 and $84,000 levels, it might trigger another increase. Despite a steady price above $78,000, BTC had to face resistance near $84,000 from the bears. After reaching a high of $84,200, the price adjusted to some gains, dipping below the $83,000 level.

In the event of a close above $85,000, Bitcoin’s price could skyrocket further, potentially testing the $86,500 resistance level. If gains continue, the price might even reach the $88,000 or $96,200 mark.

Should Bitcoin fail to surpass the $82,450 resistance zone, a new decline could be on the horizon. The first significant support level is near $79,600 or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $76,818 low to the $84,200 high. If losses extend, the price might even reach the $77,000 support in the short-term, with the main support sitting at $76,500.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is gaining momentum in the bullish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 mark.
Major Support Levels – $80,500, followed by $79,600.
Major Resistance Levels – $82,450 and $84,000.

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ETH Approaching Key Breakout Point

Trader Tardigrade highlights that Ethereum has been following a clear ascending trendline and has recently formed a symmetrical triangle pattern. Historically, these patterns often signal major price breakouts in the cryptocurrency markets. The analyst points out that Ethereum has experienced several breakouts from such triangles before, leading to explosive price rallies.

For instance, prior to April 2023, Ethereum broke out from a symmetrical triangle and surged by 70.73%. Another breakout occurred from October 2023 to early 2024, where the price skyrocketed by 140.4%. According to Trader Tardigrade, Ethereum is now on the verge of a third breakout, which could potentially result in a 280% price increase, surpassing previous gains. If this projection holds true, Ethereum’s price could reach $10,000.

Price Decline and Market Sentiment

Despite these bullish projections, Ethereum has been under considerable pressure, recording a 2.20% decline in the past 24 hours and a 4.1% drop over the past week, as per CoinMarketCap data. This downward trend has frustrated many investors, with some labeling Ethereum as one of the most underperforming assets of the previous cycle. At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $2,517, and if it fails to hold the 0.038 BTC/ETH level, further declines are possible, potentially affecting other altcoins as well.

Conclusion

While Ethereum’s short-term performance may seem bleak, analysts like Trader Tardigrade are optimistic about a potential breakout to new all-time highs. If the symmetrical triangle pattern plays out as expected, Ethereum could soon rally toward the $10,000 mark, offering hope for long-term investors.

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Bitcoin and Ethereum: Movements and Recoveries

In other news, the cryptocurrency market saw significant movements with Bitcoin experiencing a slight dip as the infamous Mt. Gox exchange moved over $7 billion worth of Bitcoin, affecting its price. Meanwhile, an Ethereum user regained 80% of their funds lost in a re-staking exploit, highlighting issues of security and recovery within the blockchain space. This event has sparked discussions about the safety measures and vulnerabilities associated with crypto assets.

Argentina and El Salvador: Learning from Bitcoin Adoption

On the regulatory front, Argentina is seeking insights from El Salvador’s pioneering move to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender. The engagement aims to understand and possibly replicate Bitcoin’s integration into their financial systems, reflecting a growing trend of countries exploring cryptocurrencies as part of their economic strategies.

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The American blockchain titan Paxos Trust Company has officially ceased the issuance of Binance USD (BUSD) as of February 21, 2023. Although the company has stopped minting new BUSD tokens, it will continue to manage the coin’s dollar reserves. Furthermore, Paxos assures customers that its decision doesn’t have any negative impacts on its long-term business strategy or financial health. The company maintains its strong commitment to providing top-notch services to both new and existing clients.

New York’s financial watchdog, the New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS), had a significant role to play in this decision. However, Paxos has reassured its customers that all BUSD stablecoins are and always will be backed on a 1:1 ratio with US dollar reserves. These reserves are stored in bankruptcy-remote accounts, offering an extra layer of security to token holders.

For those looking to exit their BUSD holdings, Paxos is providing two convenient options. Customers can either redeem their BUSD for American dollars or convert them to Pax Dollar (USDP), another stablecoin issued by Paxos and pegged to the U.S. dollar. The firm pledges to support BUSD conversions until at least February 2024.

Binance’s Stance on the Termination of BUSD

Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) assures BUSD holders that there’s no reason for concern. According to CZ, Paxos will continue to manage redemptions and maintain full reserves for BUSD. As for Binance, the company plans to make necessary adjustments to its product offerings, which may include shifting away from using BUSD as the main trading pair.

CZ further clarified that Binance isn’t directly involved in the ongoing dispute between Paxos and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Therefore, Binance’s services and operations remain unaffected by the recent turn of events.

The larger crypto market felt the repercussions of NYDFS’s decision, with Binance Coin (BNB) experiencing a noticeable dip. However, experts predict that this setback is merely temporary, and BNB will recover its lost ground sooner rather than later.

SEC’s Increasing Scrutiny on Crypto Operations

This isn’t the first time that the SEC has trained its eyes on crypto enterprises. Previously, the Commission had initiated an investigation into the American cryptocurrency platform Kraken for potential violations. Soon after, Kraken ceased the questioned offerings and paid a hefty sum in penalties and prejudgment interest.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has voiced concerns about the SEC’s stringent policies, labeling them as a “terrible path” for the American economy. Armstrong also emphasized the benefits of staking services, citing improved security and scalability, along with a reduced carbon footprint.

Binance’s Road to Resilience and Growth

For Binance, this is far from a setback. The company has always been known for its resilience and adaptability in the face of challenges. The termination of BUSD minting by Paxos is not a hurdle; rather, it’s an opportunity for Binance to explore new avenues and partnerships. With its robust infrastructure and innovative spirit, Binance is likely to find alternative solutions that not only meet regulatory standards but also offer value to its global user base. In the grand scheme of things, Binance is poised for further growth and success, solidifying its position as a leader in the cryptocurrency market.

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The Longevity Question of Meme Coin Copycats While there’s undeniable buzz around meme coin copycats like XShiba Inu, the real question lies in their staying power. Riding the coattails of Shibarium’s Layer 2 protocol reopening, XShiba Inu has seen considerable investor interest. However, the sustainability of this hype is a topic that has yet to be explored. Many similar projects flash across the crypto sky and then disappear, which puts the longevity of XShiba Inu into perspective.

Building Momentum on Unstable Grounds Shibarium may have a large and enthusiastic supporter base, but the protocol still has a long way to go before it solidifies its reputation as a Layer 2 solution on the Ethereum network. Future updates to the Shibarium protocol will likely trigger more meme coin projects to emerge. Despite the potential for exponential growth, the likelihood of encountering “bad actors” leveraging the smart contract network also increases. Therefore, it’s crucial for investors to exercise due diligence when considering projects like XShiba Inu.

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Ethereum’s London Hard Fork, a highly anticipated upgrade, has been successfully implemented. This upgrade, also known as EIP-1559, is a significant milestone in Ethereum’s journey towards becoming a more efficient and user-friendly platform. It introduces a new transaction pricing mechanism that aims to make fees more predictable and fair.

The London Hard Fork is part of Ethereum’s broader plan to transition from a Proof-of-Work (PoW) to a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus mechanism. This transition, known as Ethereum 2.0, is expected to significantly increase the network’s scalability and efficiency.

Implications for Transaction Fees

The primary feature of the London Hard Fork is the modification of Ethereum’s transaction fee model. Previously, users had to participate in a bidding war to have their transactions included in the next block, leading to highly unpredictable and often exorbitant transaction fees.

With the new upgrade, Ethereum introduces a “base fee” for transactions that adjusts up or down depending on network congestion. This base fee is burned, or removed from circulation, which could potentially lead to Ethereum becoming a deflationary asset over time.

The Future of Ethereum

The successful implementation of the London Hard Fork marks a significant step forward in Ethereum’s evolution. By addressing the long-standing issue of high and unpredictable transaction fees, Ethereum has enhanced its usability and appeal to a broader range of users and developers.

The burning of the base fee could also have profound implications for Ethereum’s economic model, potentially leading to a decrease in supply and an increase in the value of the remaining Ether. This could further solidify Ethereum’s position as a leading platform for decentralized applications and smart contracts.

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