Understanding the Bitcoin Profit-Taking Phase

According to Ki Young Ju, many investors who previously acquired Bitcoin at lower prices are now opting to sell, aiming to secure their profits. This behavior is affecting Bitcoin’s momentum, as increased selling pressure typically results in price stagnation or decline.

One of the indicators supporting this trend is the Bitcoin PnL Index, which examines the average purchase price of all Bitcoin holders. Young Ju has pointed out that the current market conditions resemble the onset of a bear market, where the selling momentum is driven by accumulated profits.

The Role of Macro Liquidity

Despite the ongoing Bitcoin profit-taking phase, Young Ju suggests that a significant influx of macro liquidity could disrupt this cycle. He draws parallels to the 2020 cycle, where an increase in liquidity led to price stabilization and eventual market recovery.

As Bitcoin trades around $83,589.18, with a modest 1.35% increase in the last 24 hours, the coin’s trading volume has decreased by 22.47% to $92.2 billion. This shift highlights the current market’s cautious stance.

Forecasting Bitcoin’s Price Movements

Analysts are keeping a close eye on Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is currently in oversold territory. This condition suggests that Bitcoin could potentially reach a price bottom of $78,000 before a full recovery ensues. Experts like Raoul Pal view the current market dynamics as a standard cycle reset for Bitcoin, emphasizing that the cryptocurrency has previously rebounded from similar situations.

In conclusion, while the Bitcoin profit-taking phase presents challenges, the potential for increased liquidity could pave the way for market stabilization. Investors and analysts alike are keenly observing these developments, anticipating how they may influence Bitcoin’s trajectory.

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The bull cycle so far had seen ETH underperform against BTC. The tables, however, are now turning. The ETH to BTC relative price has shot up from 0.018 to 0.031, a peak not witnessed since January 24. This alteration in ETH’s standing commenced post the ETH/BTC Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio plummeting into the extremely undervalued domain in April. ETH has since bounced back, outdoing BTC by a staggering 72%. CryptoQuant experts predict a further rise in this ratio if it crosses its 365-day moving average, resulting in ETH significantly outshining BTC.

With Ethereum now drawing more capital, its spot trading volume has surpassed that of Bitcoin, for the first time in over a year. Last week, ETH’s spot trading volume was recorded at $25.7 billion, slightly ahead of BTC’s $24.4 billion. This is the first occurrence since June 2024 of ETH’s weekly spot trading volume outpacing Bitcoin’s, signifying that the ETH/BTC trading ratio is above 1. The total altcoin trading volume, too, has soared to its highest level since March, standing at $67 billion on July 17.

Furthermore, there’s a noticeable surge in capital being invested into U.S. Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) compared to Bitcoin ETFs. The ETH/BTC ETF Holding Ratio has risen from 0.05 to 0.12. Additionally, the ETH/BTC exchange inflow ratio, a measure of selling pressure, decreased in May to its lowest since 2020, suggesting that ETH is experiencing much less selling pressure than BTC. This ratio, despite a recent increase, remains significantly below high levels, hinting a bullish scenario – ETH’s performance could continue to overshadow BTC.

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The current XRPUSD trading value is 13% less than its recent all-time highs, showing no signs of recovery after the sell-off. This has led to fresh concerns among investors about becoming the “exit liquidity” as Larsen continues to move large amounts of tokens to exchanges.

Responding to this situation, J. A. Maartunn, a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, advised XRP holders to avoid getting “dumped on”. He warned that the recent 50 million XRP outflows were just a fraction of the huge stash Larsen still possesses.

Maartunn further added, “Chris Larsen (Ripple co-founder) still holds 2.58B $XRP — that’s $8.83B. If $200M was just the warm-up… what’s next?”

Despite the recent sell-off, XRP remains a major altcoin that led the sector’s revival this month, following Bitcoin’s consolidation. As of now, XRPUSD is valued at $3.18, indicating a 13% correction according to Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

“Don’t get dumped on. Don’t be the exit liquidity. Protect yourself,” Maartunn advised. Other market participants, including trader ManLy, echoed these concerns.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin shrugged off a massive 80,000 BTC sale by a Satoshi-era whale, which caused a brief dip in BTCUSD to around $114,500 before it rebounded. During this volatility, 24-hour crypto liquidations surpassed $500 million, as per data from monitoring resource CoinGlass.

This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trading moves involve risk. Readers are advised to do their own research before making any decision.

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The Hash Ribbons signal cessation signifies the end of miner stress, according to the most recent analysis provided by CryptoQuant. This indicator comes into play when Bitcoin’s 30-day hash rate moving average drops below its 60-day average. It typically indicates that miners are under financial strain and may struggle to cover the costs of their operations.

This strain may force miners to deactivate unprofitable rigs temporarily or even sell Bitcoin to remain solvent. Historically, the Hash Ribbons indicator has often surfaced towards the end of miner sell-offs and usually sets the stage for Bitcoin’s bullish phases, while allowing for some market volatility. The latest signal ended as Bitcoin’s network hash rate began to recover, indicating a potential stabilization in mining activities.

Interestingly, the previous occurrence of this phenomenon was on June 5, when Bitcoin was inching closer to the $100,000 mark. While short-term corrections are still a possibility, CryptoQuant maintains that historical patterns suggest that investing during these signal periods often coincides with effective entry points, as miner capitulation ends and the hash rate begins to recover.

On July 15, Bitcoin’s network hash rate surged to a record-breaking 1.0322 zettahashes per second (ZH/s), as per data compiled by Bitinforcharts. This peak came after a sharp dip to around 658 EH/s on June 24, due to a severe summer heatwave that strained the US power grid and compelled many miners, particularly in heat-sensitive regions, to reduce or temporarily halt their operations.

Some market observers had previously suggested Iran as a potential reason for the drastic hash rate drop. However, the correlation seems weak. Iran harbors large-scale Bitcoin mining operations, and it has been reported that state-backed entities like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps may contribute to local power outages.

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Specifically, last week’s Ethereum spot trading volume reached a massive $25.7 billion, outperforming Bitcoin’s $24.4 billion. This notable shift has pushed the ETH/BTC spot volume ratio above 1, indicating a growing investor preference for Ethereum and altcoins.

Ethereum’s price ratio against Bitcoin has also seen a notable rise, jumping from 0.018 to 0.031, its highest point since January. Analysts attribute this to Ethereum’s recovery after hitting significantly undervalued levels earlier this year.

Data from US ETFs also suggests a shift in capital allocation, with more investments flowing towards Ethereum relative to Bitcoin. The ETH/BTC ETF holding ratio has doubled from 0.05 to 0.12. Moreover, Ethereum seems to be experiencing less selling pressure compared to Bitcoin, as indicated by lower exchange inflows. This suggests that Ethereum’s outperformance may continue.

The report also highlights a surge in altcoin spot trading volume, which reached its highest level since March, pointing towards a capital rotation. The spot trading volume for altcoins totaled $67 billion on July 17, reflecting renewed trader interest in these coins.

Despite a recent dip in Ethereum prices, many analysts predict a continued uphill trajectory due to sustained institutional and corporate buying pressure. Some even foresee a sharp ascent to $8,000 in the coming months.

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The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for long-term holders (LTH) is one metric gaining attention. It has reached a new high for 2025, according to CryptoQuant analyst Gaah. This indicator measures the profitability of coins moved by owners who have held their Bitcoin for over 155 days. Current readings suggest that LTHs are starting to sell at a profit, but the SOPR is yet to reach the critical levels traditionally associated with market peaks.

Gaah pointed out that while the LTH SOPR has crossed the midpoint and is slightly above 2.5, it’s still far below the 4.0 level, which has historically signaled macro peaks in past cycles. This indicates that long-term investors are making profits, but not in a manner that suggests a market frenzy or widespread divestment. Higher SOPR readings above 4.0 in previous bull cycles marked the beginning of substantial corrections or cycle peaks.

The steady rise in profit-taking suggests a maturing market that still has upward potential. Gaah advises investors to view this as part of the natural progression of a bullish phase, although correction risks persist. The ongoing patterns of accumulation and realization by LTHs offer a glimpse into how confidence and caution can coexist in the market.

In related news, CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain pointed out the continual activity in the Bitcoin derivatives market. He noted that the total number of outstanding futures contracts, or open interest, remains high near $42 billion. Though slightly down from recent peaks, this level is near historical highs and shows robust trader involvement.

Arab Chain also underlined the impact of rising funding rates on market sentiment. Presently, these funding rates show a dominance of long positions, suggesting a bullish market. However, with high open interest and increasing leveraged trades, this could also indicate a higher risk of volatility. An unexpected price shift could trigger widespread liquidations if funding becomes unsustainable, forcing exchanges to close positions.

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A recent Quicktake post on CryptoQuant by BorisVest points to early indicators that suggest a temporary correction may be on the horizon for BTC. The analyst warns that unless BTC gains positive momentum soon, it might struggle to sustain its bullish path.

Binance’s taker buy/sell volume recently showed a significant increase in aggressive buy orders, typically a bullish signal. However, the sell volume has also concurrently risen, effectively neutralizing much of the demand. Despite this surge in buy volume, BTC’s price has not shown a proportional response, indicating the possibility of distribution or selling pressure.

Moreover, Binance’s open interest has spiked during the recent price rally, indicating an influx of leveraged positions. Although rising open interest can support further gains, the muted price reaction raises questions about Bitcoin’s short-term strength.

Meanwhile, funding rates have remained relatively neutral throughout the rally. Yet, the recent push to a new ATH has seen BTC’s funding rates turn slightly positive, signalling increased long exposure and renewed bullish sentiment.

Simultaneously, the price breakout led to significant short liquidations, likely driving a short squeeze. According to Coinglass, over the past 24 hours, $521 million in positions were liquidated, with $448 million of those being short positions.

In conclusion, BorisVest argued that despite some cautionary signs, Bitcoin’s overall bullish structure remains unbroken. However, the market is beginning to show early signs of a potential short-term pullback, particularly due to the spike-driven nature of the recent move.

Other analysts, like Christian Chifoi, believe the current price action could be a deceptive move designed to ensnare bullish traders, potentially pushing BTC down to $97,000 before the final rally commences. Regardless, the recent weakness observed in the US Dollar Index (DXY) has spurred hopes for a capital shift towards alternative assets, including BTC. As of press time, BTC trades at $110,885, up by 1.1% in the past 24 hours.

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According to Adler’s July 8 post, Bitcoin’s Mayer Multiple, a tool used to measure the relative value of Bitcoin compared to its 200-day simple moving average, signals a promising future for the cryptocurrency.

Despite Bitcoin’s impressive 90% gains over the past year, taking its price close to $108,000, the Mayer Multiple is not indicating a BTC price top. The metric currently stands at 1.1x, within the neutral zone of 0.8 – 1.5x, and considerably below overbought thresholds of 1.5x.

Adler suggests that the current Mayer Multiple indicates Bitcoin is trading at a discount relative to its historical bull rallies and is more undervalued than overvalued. This could act as a reserve for a new upward price movement.

Though the Mayer Multiple doesn’t provide strict buying or selling signals, it is one of the many onchain metrics that have not yet indicated a bull market peak. In fact, CoinGlass, a monitoring resource, reports that thirty “bull market peak” indicators are 100% in “hold” territory.

Forecasts for when the current uptrend might reach its “blow-off top” are diverse. However, October 2025 is emerging as a popular target, flagged by renowned trader and analyst Rekt Capital, based on historical comparisons.

Other traders and analysts, like Jelle, also concur with the October 2025 timeframe. Jelle revealed that profit-taking had already started. However, some market participants believe that the cycle could extend into 2026 due to slower price action.

A reminder that this analysis does not represent investment advice and any investment or trading move involves risk. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making a decision.

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As burakkesmeci, a contributor to CryptoQuant Quicktake, recently revealed, the Bitcoin Network Value to Transaction (NVT) Golden Cross is exhibiting an upward trend. Crucially, this ascension is beginning to indicate potential market overheating.

The Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross is a technical tool that compares the short-term and long-term moving averages of the NVT ratio to pinpoint possible market peaks or troughs. When the short-term NVT surpasses the long-term average, it frequently indicates that Bitcoin is becoming overly valued and could be on the brink of a brief downturn.

This indicator has accurately forecasted three local peaks in 2025 to date. The first instance was on February 5, when the NVT Golden Cross reached 2.68 with BTC trading at $97,600, which was succeeded by a 23.65% downturn. On March 24, the marker topped at 2.87 with BTC around $87,500, resulting in a subsequent correction of 16.06%. Most recently, on June 16, it climbed to 2.21 with BTC exchanging hands at $106,800, followed by a 9.87% price reduction.

The NVT Golden Cross is currently at 1.98. Although it hasn’t yet surpassed the critical 2.2 threshold, its upward movement suggests that market overheating may be on the horizon. The CryptoQuant analyst elaborated:

“Breaking its previous high is moderately bullish and shows momentum is building. If the metric crosses 2.2 again, it may hint at a local top. But don’t rush to exit – historically, the metric has stayed above 2.2 for several days.”

In conclusion, burakkesmeci noted that while crossing the 2.2 level might suggest Bitcoin is heating up in the short-term, it could also signal a return of bullish momentum in the medium-term. That said, the opinion on BTC’s short-term price trajectory is largely divided.

The NVT Golden Cross suggests that BTC may still have room to rally before hitting a potential local top. However, some analysts foresee a short-term pullback before Bitcoin reaches new highs. For instance, noted crypto analyst Chistian Chifoi described the current BTC price action as a “deceptive setup,” warning it may trap bulls before a possible surge toward a new all-time high (ATH) of $160,000. Meanwhile, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode forecasts BTC’s short-term peak at $117,000. At press time, BTC trades at $108,204, down 0.1% in the past 24 hours.

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However, this upward trend began to lose steam upon the release of positive employment statistics from the United States. Despite expectations of bullish reactions to this data, Bitcoin’s price didn’t reflect this. Regardless, on-chain insights reveal a specific group of investors making a comeback in the market and wagering on the world’s leading cryptocurrency by market cap.

In a brief report on CryptoQuant, on-chain analyst Amr Taha underscored the growing divergence between retail and institutional behaviors within the Bitcoin market. Taha noted that Bitcoin futures Open Interest (OI) on Binance continues to hover below $11.5 billion, a price level that has acted as a robust resistance, with traders repeatedly closing positions near this threshold.

On the contrary, short-term holders (STH), primarily retail traders, have amplified their market presence by approximately 382,000 BTC, indicating renewed retail interest in Bitcoin. Contrarily, long-term holders (LTH) have reduced their holdings by a similar magnitude, which Taha suggests may be due to profit-taking or risk management.

Taha also reported that large holders (those holding over 10,000 BTC) shed approximately 12,000 BTC on July 3rd, hinting at potential profit-taking or strategic reallocation. Mid-sized whales (those holding between 1,000-10,000 BTC) also offloaded some of their holdings from June 30th, with roughly 14,000 BTC being sold.

The future of the Bitcoin market remains uncertain, hinging on the renewed confidence of larger players. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s value stands at $108,152, with no significant movement witnessed in the last 24 hours.

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