A recent weekly analysis by Binance, the world’s leading cryptocurrency exchange, revealed a marginal drop in Bitcoin’s dominance during this recovery period. Nevertheless, this doesn’t necessarily suggest that an altcoin season is imminent.

Binance’s report indicates that Bitcoin’s robust recovery signals a potential shift towards riskier assets as the macroeconomic environment shows signs of improvement. After a widespread shakeup caused by geopolitical tensions, both traditional and BTC assets ended the week on a positive note. Bitcoin, in particular, reaffirmed its position as an emergent hedge asset amidst geopolitical uncertainty, bouncing back to $107,000 from a low of $98,000 at the week’s start.

Similarly, Ethereum traced a comparable route, showing more downside volatility and a less pronounced recovery. Ethereum’s performance suggests it’s yet to establish itself securely as a hedge asset, closing the week below its opening price at $2,480 after dipping to $2,130 on Monday.

However, as both digital assets strive to maintain above specific support zones, the hope for an altcoin season in this cycle seems to be waning. Investors are increasingly questioning when this altcoin season will commence.

Historical data shows that altcoin seasons usually follow strong Bitcoin rallies, becoming more distinct when the leading asset enters a consolidation phase. During these periods, capital typically shifts from Bitcoin to more volatile, small-cap altcoins with a higher speculative appeal.

Binance analysts, however, argue that in this cycle, the overflow of new projects in the market may dilute any fresh capital inflow into altcoins. Therefore, a significant catalyst is necessary to trigger an altcoin season as capital rotation and industry narratives alone are no longer sufficient.

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During this 12-day conflict, Bitcoin experienced a temporary dip below the $100,000 mark, causing market instability. However, after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, global risk sentiment improved, sparking a Bitcoin rally. This resurgence saw Bitcoin surpass the $106,000 mark on Wednesday.

The latest data analysis suggests that amid continuing geopolitical uncertainty, Bitcoin could potentially surge to $120K. This prediction comes after Bitcoin successfully reclaimed its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a critical technical indicator often used as support during broader bullish trend corrections.

Historically, when Bitcoin dips below this level and swiftly regains it, the market typically responds with a speedy 10-20% price surge. This trend seems to be recurring, with Bitcoin closing above the EMA for three consecutive days, signaling strengthening bullish momentum.

Market analysts at CryptoQuant suggested that this recovery could catalyze a new upward trend in the current cycle, although they warned of potential short-term volatility due to geopolitical factors. They emphasized the importance of maintaining a risk-managed approach and avoiding excessive leverage in such circumstances.

Despite the geopolitical instability, the reclaiming of the 50-day EMA represents a significant milestone for Bitcoin, reinforcing the possibility of a rally towards the six-figure mark.

On-chain metrics, particularly the behavior of short-term holders, also support Bitcoin’s current momentum. The Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP) is acting as a critical psychological and technical support for Bitcoin. Currently standing at $98K, each increase fortifies the six-figure mark as the new perceived ‘fair value.’

Bitcoin’s spot price is $106.4K, a 7.2% premium over STH-RP, suggesting reduced market ‘froth.’ As long as Bitcoin maintains above STH-RP, the trend of higher lows and higher highs remains intact; a dip below could indicate a potential correction.

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Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a consolidation phase throughout the week, only to take a nosedive on Friday due to escalating conflicts between Israel and Iran. Global markets, including risk assets like BTC and equities, have been plagued by increased volatility since the week’s onset.

Initially, Bitcoin and other equities managed to rally, brushing off the negative impacts of geopolitical news. However, by midweek, BTC had fallen to $103,500. Investors started leaning towards defensive assets amidst growing concerns over potential geopolitical repercussions in the Middle East.

Binance’s analysts highlighted that despite the shift from risk-on to risk-off, the structural demand for BTC remained firm. The US spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) market saw inflows amounting to $2.4 billion in an eight-day streak that lasted until June 18. This trend suggests that long-term investors are buying the dip.

Spot Ethereum ETFs also witnessed significant positive flows, crossing the $605 million mark during the same period. On-chain metrics for Ethereum remained optimistic, with staked Ether (ETH) reaching a record 34.9 million ETH, about 28.9% of the circulating supply. More than 500,000 ETH of the staked amount was added just within the first two weeks of June.

In a significant regulatory development, the U.S. Senate approved the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act with a 68-30 vote on June 17. This bill, the first of its kind, aims to create a regulatory framework for fully-reserved, anti-money laundering (AML)-compliant stablecoins. The Act now awaits approval from the House of Representatives to become law.

Despite marking progress in stablecoin regulation, the Act has sparked concerns about the risk concentration within the traditional banking system, given that it requires stablecoin reserves to be held exclusively by federally regulated entities. Notwithstanding, stablecoin usage has hit record highs, with total supply growing by 22.5% since the end of 2024 to surpass $250 billion, and on-chain transfer volumes exceeding $20 trillion.

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While the political climate has seen some improvement, with the US securing deals with several nations including its primary adversary, China, recent events have brought about fresh waves of uncertainty. The situation has become particularly grim due to the deadly Operation Rising Lion launched by Israel on June 13, targeting numerous strategic military and nuclear locations in Iran. The latest reports indicate an alarming death toll nearing 100, including top-ranking commanders and scientists, with over 300 injured.

In retaliation, Iran executed Operation Vow of Truth 3, launching a barrage of missiles at central Israel, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and other northern targets. The reported casualties from this assault stand at a minimum of three, with dozens injured. The initial attacks by Israel were dubbed as “preemptive” by Israel and Trump, aiming to hinder Iran’s nuclear development as the nation refuses to sign any such agreement. Iran, on the other hand, justified its retaliatory actions as a defense of its sovereignty against direct aggression.

Similar to the trade war period, Bitcoin’s price responded swiftly after Israel’s attack. It plunged from a daily high of $108,500 to under $103,000 within hours. Although it has regained some ground and currently trades around $105,000, the uncertainty continues and the situation could worsen, potentially causing further complications.

Ali Martinez, a popular crypto analyst, cautioned that Bitcoin needs to maintain a six-digit price range; else there is a risk of it falling back to under $80,000. Whales, or large Bitcoin holders, have also started to show signs of change in attitude, with some beginning to trim their positions. If these sell-offs continue or escalate, it could not only increase the selling pressure on Bitcoin but may also influence smaller investors to follow suit.

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The price of gold has surged to its highest-ever level following the United States central bank’s recent interest rate cut, while Bitcoin rallied to a month-high, crossing the $64,000 mark.

According to GoldPrice.org, gold reached a record-breaking $2,629 per ounce on Sept. 23. The precious metal has seen a significant 5% growth over the past two weeks, bolstered by a Federal Reserve rate cut of 0.5% on Sept. 18.

This move made assets tied to Fed-set interest rates, such as government bonds, less appealing. Meanwhile, inflation hedges like gold became a go-to diversification option for investors.

Beyond Fed policies, the ongoing geopolitical tensions involving Russia, Ukraine, Israel, and Hamas, combined with the looming U.S. presidential election in November, have further fueled the demand for gold. Additionally, a Goldman Sachs report from Sept. 12 highlights that global central bank purchases of gold have tripled since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Wall Street researchers now predict that gold could hit $2,700 by early 2025, with further Fed rate cuts expected. However, some analysts, like Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Financial Group, point out that gold has not yet surpassed its inflation-adjusted peak of $3,200 from 1980.

While gold continues its ascent, Bitcoin (BTC)—often referred to as “digital gold”—is also on the rise. Following the Fed’s decision, BTC experienced an 8.5% increase, peaking at $64,660 on Sept. 23, according to CoinGecko.

Crypto analysts, such as Markus Thielen of 10x Research, are predicting a new Bitcoin all-time high by the end of 2024. “We are nearing the pivotal October-to-March window, and a major breakout is increasingly likely,” Thielen noted in a Sept. 22 investor note.

Despite the enthusiasm surrounding Bitcoin, gold advocate Peter Schiff remains skeptical. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Schiff remarked, “Gold has hit another record high, but investors remain distracted by Bitcoin. They’re missing out on the significance of gold’s rise.”

Will both Bitcoin and gold continue their upward trajectory in the coming months?

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Vladimir Putin, the Russian President mentioned that during the news conference he said that it is all set to work ahead with West de-escalate tensions upon Ukraine. However, Russia even decided to pull back partially the troops from various military districts that are bordering Ukraine.

Impact on Altcoins and Cryptocurrency

With the rise in Equities & cryptocurrencies, while the most traditional as well as safe havens like gold and U.S. dollar has also declined over last 24 hours.

On the other hand, the Altcoins which are also known as the alternative cryptocurrencies led the rally. This clearly indicate the renewed appetite for the risk among various crypto traders. On the other hand, ETH was also up for 8% for last 24 hours, as compared to the 4% increase in the BTC over similar set of period.

Yet, the trading volume in bitcoin spot market stays to be quite weak comparative to the previous price jumps. This can also point to restricted gains almost $46,000-$50,000 BTC as per the technical indicators.

Recently, traders also look quite indecisive. As, it is shown by market sentiment that are hovering between the greed and fear. Bitcoin which is also ranging between support level of $42,000 and resistance level of $46,000. In case there is any break in bitcoin or Altcoins breaks out from this range. We may also see enhanced market activity.

Bullish sentiment

The Fear and Greed Index of Bitcoin and altcoin took a dip back in the territory of “fear” as traders. They have also reacted to the macroeconomic along with the uncertainty in geopolitical way.

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Here, answer to first, is no; though the fortress gold has increased by 2.3% over last week. The Western warnings related to Russian aggression have also intensified, bitcoin lost almost 3%. This was worse as compared to 0.9% decline related to Nasdaq Composite index.

A Safe Heaven

I do not actually see any such evidence of the bitcoin known as the safe haven,” mentioned Chris Weston, which head related to research at the Melbourne-based as brokerage Pepperstone. However, Ukraine situation through Russia is actually quite hard to price, so in such kind of the situation, you must purchase the crude futures.”

Still, it’s quite early to simply dismiss argument which made by various bitcoin advocates that say cryptocurrency. Just in the teens, it is also distain to be the form of digital gold. It must also retain their value while the riskier assets like stocks simply tumble.

Slipping of Bitcoin

Though the bitcoin has also slipped towards the levels of almost $42,000 in last few days, it has not surrendered all such gains that has made from the lows of almost $32,950 hit during January.

There are few investors that even point about how comparatively trading has been.  During extreme geopolitical tension, Russia being mass above 100,000 troops close to Ukraine, though even rejecting the Western prophecies related to invasion known as “hysteria”.

The average Bitcoin with 30-day volatility also fallen to the level of 3.48%, against the 2021 average of almost 4.56%. This is as per the volatility index worldwide.

The Fear and Greed index measures the sentiments of market where 0 means extreme fear & 100 means greed.

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