As burakkesmeci, a contributor to CryptoQuant Quicktake, recently revealed, the Bitcoin Network Value to Transaction (NVT) Golden Cross is exhibiting an upward trend. Crucially, this ascension is beginning to indicate potential market overheating.

The Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross is a technical tool that compares the short-term and long-term moving averages of the NVT ratio to pinpoint possible market peaks or troughs. When the short-term NVT surpasses the long-term average, it frequently indicates that Bitcoin is becoming overly valued and could be on the brink of a brief downturn.

This indicator has accurately forecasted three local peaks in 2025 to date. The first instance was on February 5, when the NVT Golden Cross reached 2.68 with BTC trading at $97,600, which was succeeded by a 23.65% downturn. On March 24, the marker topped at 2.87 with BTC around $87,500, resulting in a subsequent correction of 16.06%. Most recently, on June 16, it climbed to 2.21 with BTC exchanging hands at $106,800, followed by a 9.87% price reduction.

The NVT Golden Cross is currently at 1.98. Although it hasn’t yet surpassed the critical 2.2 threshold, its upward movement suggests that market overheating may be on the horizon. The CryptoQuant analyst elaborated:

“Breaking its previous high is moderately bullish and shows momentum is building. If the metric crosses 2.2 again, it may hint at a local top. But don’t rush to exit – historically, the metric has stayed above 2.2 for several days.”

In conclusion, burakkesmeci noted that while crossing the 2.2 level might suggest Bitcoin is heating up in the short-term, it could also signal a return of bullish momentum in the medium-term. That said, the opinion on BTC’s short-term price trajectory is largely divided.

The NVT Golden Cross suggests that BTC may still have room to rally before hitting a potential local top. However, some analysts foresee a short-term pullback before Bitcoin reaches new highs. For instance, noted crypto analyst Chistian Chifoi described the current BTC price action as a “deceptive setup,” warning it may trap bulls before a possible surge toward a new all-time high (ATH) of $160,000. Meanwhile, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode forecasts BTC’s short-term peak at $117,000. At press time, BTC trades at $108,204, down 0.1% in the past 24 hours.

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“The Bitcoin treasury approach may have a shorter shelf life than many anticipate,” Check shared on a recent post. He further indicated that for numerous late entrants, “it might already be over,” emphasizing the importance of a sustainable product and strategy for long-term Bitcoin (BTC) accumulation rather than a race for size.

Check expressed concerns about the increasing struggle for new Bitcoin treasury companies to gain traction, as investors seem to prefer early birds in the sector. “The 50th Treasury company is not what anyone wants,” stated Check.

As per the data from BitcoinTreasuries, up to Friday, at least 21 entities adopted Bitcoin as a reserve asset in the last 30 days. The largest public Bitcoin treasury, spearheaded by Michael Saylor (MSTR), possesses 597,325 BTC, while MARA Holdings, in the second position, owns 50,000 BTC, roughly a tenth of MSTR’s holding.

While new Bitcoin treasury firms may draw in retail speculators, Check cautions that these firms don’t have “infinite money.” He noted that despite his bullish stance on Bitcoin’s price, which is currently trading around $107,990, the future seems uncertain for newer firms.

Check concurred with Udi Wizardheimer, co-founder of Taproot Wizards, that some companies might misuse the Bitcoin treasury strategy for fast earnings without appreciating its long-term goals. “Many raising funds see easy money but lack understanding of what they are getting into,” Wizardheimer remarked.

Recently, questions have arisen regarding companies adopting the Bitcoin treasury strategy. A report by venture capital firm Breed on June 29 suggested that only a handful of Bitcoin treasury firms will survive the harsh “death spiral” affecting BTC holding companies trading near their net asset value (NAV).

Fakhul Miah, managing director of GoMining Institutional, voiced his concern about “the copycats” in a conversation with Cointelegraph. He warned about companies attempting to establish Bitcoin banks without adequate protections or risk management, stating that if these smaller firms falter, Bitcoin’s reputation could suffer a blow.

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Although many in the crypto sphere are optimistic for a market rebound, Coin Bureau’s recent findings suggest that the on-chain data might tell a different story.

Analysts See Unlikely $3 XRP Target Amidst Decreasing Network Activity

In a post published on June 20, Coin Bureau pointed out that XRP’s path to reclaiming its bullish stance seems arduous due to dwindling network engagement. Specifically, Glassnode data reveals a significant drop in new wallet creations on the XRP Ledger, from over 30,000 daily in January to currently under 5,000 daily.

Interestingly, Glassnode charts show a strong correlation between price movements and network growth. The late Q4 2024 spike in wallet creation coincided with a sharp price rise, pushing XRP to a high of $2.71. However, as the influx of new users began to wane, XRP’s price followed suit, entering a period of consolidation and gradual decline.

In addition to these observations, Coin Bureau also underscores the dramatic fall in XRP’s daily active addresses, from 557,000 to just 34,000, hinting at dwindling retail investor interest in the XRP ecosystem. According to market analysts, this sharp decrease in network engagement suggests that XRP might not have enough market demand to support a bullish climb towards the crucial $3 resistance zone.

However, another theory proposes that the previous network activity highs seen in Q4 2024 and January were associated with widespread market euphoria following the US general elections. This theory argues that the decline is a part of social trends and is overstated by Coin Bureau.

XRP’s Price Outlook

At the moment, XRP is trading at $2.13, reflecting a 1.33% decrease in the past day. Meanwhile, the asset’s daily trading volume has risen by 22.29%, reaching a value of $2.25 billion. Based on data from prediction site CoinCodex, investors remain largely bearish towards XRP, although the Fear & Greed Index is neutral at 54.

CoinCodex analysts anticipate that XRP will remain in consolidation in the short term, with a projected value of $2.12 in a month. However, they predict a slow but steady long-term bullish recovery, with estimates of $2.45 in three months and $3.03 in six months.

The post XRP Sees a Sharp 80% Drop in New Daily Addresses in 2025: A Warning Bell of Prolonged Bearish Trend? appeared first on Crypto Market Insights: Dive In with CryptoUpdate.io.

The price of XRP has fallen 18% below its May peak of $2.65, and a combination of several indicators points towards a possible decrease to around $1.70. The inverted V-shaped pattern formed between April 7 and June 2 predicts a 20% price drop.

After an initial climb, XRP’s price surged 62% from a low of $1.61, but buyer congestion halted the sharp recovery at the $1.72 resistance level. Bears took profits during this rally, leading to a notable correction to the current levels. The relative strength index (RSI) has dropped from 68 to 41 since May 12, indicating a growing downward momentum.

A popular TradingView analyst, MasterAnanda, aligned with these sentiments, stating that decreasing bullish momentum and rejection from key support areas potentially threaten a drop to below $2.00 for XRP. He noted that XRP has broken below a rising channel, with three consecutive daily closes beneath the lower trendline, which suggests continued bearish momentum.

The bearish divergence between XRP’s price and the RSI is further reinforced by the daily chart, which shows a rise in the XRPUSD pair from November 2024 to June 2025, but a simultaneous decrease in its weekly RSI from 92 to 51.

The XRP Ledger has seen a significant decline in network activity over the past two months. Glassnode’s onchain data reveals that the daily active addresses (DAAs) are far below the peak recorded on March 19. With only about 31,200 DAAs currently, user transactions have significantly decreased, possibly indicating a lack of confidence in XRP’s short-term outlook.

Note: This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.

The post XRP’s Potential 20% Plunge to $1.70 – What’s Behind the Forecast? appeared first on Crypto Market Insights: Dive In with CryptoUpdate.io.

According to the Glassnode report from May 29, “The typical investor in the Ethereum ETFs from BlackRock and Fidelity is now notably in the red on their investment, with an average unrealized loss of approximately -21%.”

At present, Ether (ETHUSD) is trading at $2,601, as per data from CoinMarketCap. In contrast, the cost basis of BlackRock’s spot Ether ETF stands at $3,300, while Fidelity’s is slightly higher at $3,500.

Glassnode’s report highlights that the last time Ether traded above $3,000 was on February 2, before the crypto faced a downturn following the implementation of import tariffs on goods from China, Canada, and Mexico by then US President Donald Trump.

Glassnode further noted, “Net outflows started to speed up when the spot price fell below this average ETF investor cost-basis level in August 2024, and again in January and March 2025.” Ether hit its annual low of $1,472 on April 9, the very day when Trump’s comprehensive global tariffs came into effect.

Despite this, Ether has seen a 44.25% increase over the past month, and spot Ether ETFs have recorded nine straight days of inflows totaling $435.6 million since May 16, suggesting that the trade war concerns are starting to lose steam.

Since the launch of spot Ether ETFs in the US in July 2024, they have logged $2.94 billion in total inflows. On their launch day, Ether was trading around $3,536.

Glassnode also revealed that the ETFs had a minimal effect on Ether’s spot price, stating, “The Ethereum ETFs initially represented just ±1.5% of the trade volume in spot markets, indicating a rather tepid reception at launch.”

However, they experienced a period of stronger growth in November 2024, where the measure increased to over 2.5% – a rise in tandem with Trump’s election victory and a subsequent month-long crypto market rally that saw Ether peak at $4,007 on Dec. 8.

The report concluded with a note that Robbie Mitchnick, BlackRock’s head of digital assets, mentioned at the Digital Asset Summit on March 20 that the spot Ether ETF is “less perfect” without staking.

Disclaimer: This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Investing and trading involve risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.

The post Ethereum ETF Investors Incur Significant Losses, Reports Glassnode appeared first on Crypto Market Insights: Dive In with CryptoUpdate.io.

In a recent report, Glassnode highlighted that although the realized cap has reached a new peak, the monthly growth rate for this metric has slumped to just 0.9% month on month. This signifies a conservative sentiment in the market. The realized cap serves as a reflection of the total value of all Bitcoin at the price they were last traded, thus offering a glimpse into Bitcoin’s economic activity. The slowing growth rate underlines a positive yet diminishing capital inflow, possibly hinting at fewer new investors or less activity from existing ones.

In addition to this, Glassnode’s realized profit and loss graph demonstrated a drastic 40% drop, indicating significant profit-taking or loss realization. The analytics firm explained this as a sign of a potential slowdown in investor activity, often leading to a consolidation phase as the market seeks a new balance.

While newcomers may be waiting in the wings, it appears existing investors are adopting a cautious stance due to the current short-term holder’s realized price. Data from CryptoQuant suggests that the short-term realized price stands at $91,600. With BTC presently hovering below this mark, it suggests short-term holders are in a loss, potentially leading to increased selling pressure if they choose to cut their losses.

Furthermore, Bitcoin’s short-term holder market value to realized value has stayed below 1, a figure traditionally associated with buying opportunities. This further substantiates that short-term holders are operating at a loss.

Data reveals a split in sentiment between US and Korean Bitcoin traders. The Coinbase premium, reflecting US trading, recently surged, indicating robust US demand and potential Bitcoin price increases. In contrast, the Kimchi premium index dipped during the correction, suggesting a dip in retail engagement amongst Korean traders.

This uneven demand is reflected in Bitcoin’s recent price fluctuation, with the cryptocurrency’s price swinging between a narrow range of $85,440-$82,750 since April 11. On the 4-hour chart, BTC has managed to maintain the support of the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. However, on the 1-day chart, these indicators are posing resistance to the bullish structure.

This article is not intended as investment advice or recommendations. All trading and investment moves carry risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making a decision.

The post Bitcoin Buyers Testing the Waters Amid Uncertainty Until $90K Stands as Support appeared first on Crypto Market Insights: Dive In with CryptoUpdate.io.

Through the utilization of Cost Basis Distribution (CBD), a criterion that unveils the prices at which investors procured their assets, Glassnode has shed light on potential zones of resistance or support in the LINK market. According to the firm’s data, two key price levels, $16 and $14.6, demonstrate high accumulation activity and feature long-standing investors who have maintained activity since August-October 2024.

In an examination of transactions at the $16 price point, it was noted that investors have strategically repositioned by actively accumulating during downtrends. This trend was evident during the price depreciation from $29 to $19 in December, the correction to around $18 in February, and most recently when the price hit a new low of $12.70 on March 11. Such recurring transactions speak to the presence of high-conviction holders at $16.0 who have strong long-term confidence in LINK and are thereby less prone to selling their holdings.

On the other hand, LINK holders at $14.6 have demonstrated a less active but timely accumulation. These investors have increased their holdings during key phases such as when LINK traded at $17 and $28 in December, at $25 in January, and on March 15 following a significant price gain from $12. These findings indicate that current LINK holders are not swift money allocators but are patient and confident about future price accumulation.

At the time of writing, LINK is trading at $14.0, just below the key cluster level at $14.6. The closeness to this accumulation zone suggests the market is at a crucial crossroads. However, the data from Glassnode indicates that holders at the $14.6 level are not fast money traders and are likely to bolster their position through further accumulation. If this optimistic scenario plays out, LINK could reclaim the $14.6 and $16 levels, which could act as crucial support structures in a potential market rebound.

The post Chainlink (LINK) Investor Insights: Decoding Key Price Levels Amid Market Turbulence appeared first on Crypto Market Insights: Dive In with CryptoUpdate.io.

The Realized Price is a metric that represents the average cost basis of an investor or address on a given network, according to data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. When an asset’s spot price trades above this measure, it indicates that holders are netting unrealized profits. However, if the spot price drops below the Realized Price, it suggests that the average investor is incurring losses.

As depicted in the chart provided by Glassnode, SOL surpassed its Realized Price in 2023, yielding profits for investors. Although the price remained above this threshold throughout 2024 and the initial months of this year, a recent crossover has taken place.

Glassnode remarks, “For the first time in nearly three years, Solana has descended below its Realized Price.” Currently, the price is roughly 8% below this metric, which implies that the typical SOL holder could be experiencing an 8% loss.

As per the chart, the last time Solana witnessed such a crossover was in 2022, which marked the onset of a bear market. Consequently, the recent breakdown of the Realized Price could potentially signal a downturn for the cryptocurrency.

Historically, the Realized Price has functioned as a dividing line between bear and bull markets for various digital assets, including SOL. In another post, Glassnode shared Bitcoin’s version of this indicator, which is calculated based on the average cost basis of investors who bought their coins within the last 155 days. This variant of the indicator primarily serves to track short-term momentum shifts.

In light of the recent bearish market trends, Bitcoin’s short-term holders have also slipped into the red, hinting at potential further market drawdowns in the near future.

At the time of writing, Solana is trading at approximately $124, marking a nearly 9% decrease over the past week.

The post Solana’s Value Dips Below Realized Price: Analyzing Past Patterns appeared first on Crypto Market Insights: Dive In with CryptoUpdate.io.

As the final verdict on the Ripple lawsuit looms, expected on April 16, it appears that the XRP community is persevering through the widespread economic downturn. XRP’s Active Addresses Multiply Threefold in a Fortnight

On-chain data sourced from Glassnode reveals an impressive increase in active XRP addresses from February 21 to March 10. On February 21, XRP reported 89,606 active addresses, but by March 2, this figure had surged to an astounding 543,000.

Despite a minor slump following this, active addresses bounced back to 531,000 on March 7. As of March 10, XRP boasts over 370,000 active addresses—a significant leap from its earlier numbers.

Simultaneously, there’s been a noticeable drop in XRP’s exchange outflows from Binance. On March 7, XRP worth over $465 million exited Binance, marking the most substantial daily outflow in a month. However, the past three days have seen a marked reduction in outflows, hinting at a decrease in large-scale withdrawals from the exchange.

This discrepancy between price trends and network activity prompts important inquiries about market sentiment. A surge in active addresses typically signals elevated user engagement, implying growing demand or amplified transaction volume. The downturn in Binance outflows could suggest reduced pressure for accumulation or investors’ reluctance to shift assets away from centralized platforms, usually suggesting uncertainty about price trajectory.

Some experts propose that XRP’s price drop, despite robust network participation, may indicate short-term speculative trading rather than inherent weakness. The dip in exchange outflows could signify traders keeping their assets rather than offloading them. However, without a corresponding price surge, it indicates a balance where neither buyers nor sellers hold a clear upper hand.

While data highlights vibrant activity on the XRP Ledger, the market’s future remains uncertain. Whether this increased engagement will lead to future price recovery or ongoing consolidation is still up in the air.

The post XRP’s Active User Base Balloons Despite 10% Value Dip appeared first on Crypto Market Insights: Dive In with CryptoUpdate.io.

In a recent analysis by CryptoVizArt.₿, a senior analyst at Glassnode, there’s a deep dive into Solana’s Realized Price. This metric essentially tracks the average cost basis of an investor or address within a specific cryptocurrency network.

If the Realized Price is below the spot price of the asset, it indicates that the bulk of holders are likely in a profitable state. Conversely, if the Realized Price is higher than the coin’s value, it hints at a net loss across the market.

CryptoVizArt.₿ shared a graph that effectively illustrates the fluctuations in Solana’s Realized Price over recent years:

The graph reveals that Solana’s trading value has been higher than its Realized Price for the past year, thus implying that the average holder has been reaping profits. However, a recent market crash has impacted the entire digital asset landscape, including SOL, leading to a retraction of the coin’s price to its Realized Price. This suggests that holders are now hovering around their break-even point.

The Realized Price has always been a crucial point for cryptocurrencies, as investor reactions are often significantly influenced by movements related to their cost basis.

During bullish trends, the Realized Price can serve as a support level, fueling investors to buy during ‘dips.’ If this level is compromised, it indicates that holders have ceased accumulating at their break-even point. Looking at the historical data, the last time such a breakdown occurred was in 2022.

Back then, Solana managed to maintain above the Realized Price for about five months before eventually succumbing to a bear market. It was only in the final quarter of 2023 that the coin managed to bounce back above this critical line.

This time around, with Solana retesting this critical level, the path the cryptocurrency will take remains uncertain. As the Glassnode analyst points out, “Failure to sustain above this level may point towards a more severe market correction.”

At the time of writing, Solana is trading at approximately $133, marking a decline of over 25% over the past week.

The post Is Solana Nearing a Bearish Turn? A Realized Price Retest is Underway appeared first on Crypto Market Insights: Dive In with CryptoUpdate.io.