Physical Gold ETF: Key Features

The Hang Seng Gold ETF stands as a passive fund, holding physical gold that adheres to the high standards of the London Bullion Market Association. HSBC, a globally recognized financial institution, ensures the security of these gold reserves by serving as the custodian, storing the gold in secure vaults located in Hong Kong.

This ETF is accessible to retail investors who can trade units on the secondary market, similar to ordinary shares. The fund’s structure allows the flexibility of in-cash and in-gold transactions for participating dealers. While it maintains a competitive ongoing charge of 0.40% per annum, retail investors should note that the fund refrains from dividend distributions, with returns tied to gold price movements.

Exploring Tokenization in Gold Investments

In an innovative move, Hang Seng is preparing to introduce tokenized units of this ETF. These digital tokens will represent ownership on a blockchain platform, potentially revolutionizing the way investors hold gold assets. Currently, these tokenized units await regulatory approval and will be managed by HSBC as the tokenization agent.

Initially, Ethereum is the chosen blockchain for recording transactions, with a possibility of adopting other secure public blockchains in the future. While these tokens open new avenues for investment, secondary market trading will not be available; transactions will occur solely through approved distributors.

Market Context and Future Prospects

Amidst global economic uncertainties, gold prices have witnessed a significant rise, with spot prices pushing to unprecedented levels. This surge underlines the growing demand for safe-haven assets, reinforcing the relevance of the Hang Seng Gold ETF.

Moreover, the financial landscape is rapidly evolving with tokenization gaining traction. For instance, the New York Stock Exchange is exploring tokenized securities, which highlights a broader trend towards blockchain-based financial infrastructure. As Hang Seng leads with its tokenized gold offerings, it sets a precedent in the evolving investment market.

Industry experts predict that by 2026, tokenization will become mainstream, with a significant portion of new bond issuances adopting this technology. Investors and financial institutions alike are closely watching these developments, poised to embrace the efficiencies brought by blockchain technology.

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Gold and Silver Dominate Social Media

In January, gold discussions surged, especially between Jan. 8 and Jan. 18, when the metal reached new highs. According to Santiment’s Sanbase data, this surge in interest was evident in the online traffic.

As crypto briefly regained attention from Jan. 19 to Jan. 22, traders attempted to capitalize on market dips. However, interest quickly returned to silver, which hit new all-time highs.

Precious Metals vs. Cryptocurrency

Santiment analysts noted that cryptocurrency traders frequently switch between different digital asset sectors. However, current trends indicate a broader shift toward sectors like gold and silver, as retail investors chase the latest market pumps.

Silver, in particular, has captured significant attention, peaking between Jan. 1 and Jan. 6, and again as it reached a record price of over $117. This surge was followed by a rapid correction, demonstrating the volatile nature of retail-driven markets.

Market Implications and Trends

Despite the focus on precious metals, Google Trends data show that crypto remains a hot topic. On Jan. 21, crypto searches peaked, with terms like “best crypto” and “crypto price” leading queries.

Comparatively, silver’s search interest peaked on Jan. 22, showcasing the dynamic interest shifts within investment communities.

Overall, these trends highlight the evolving landscape of retail investment preferences, signaling potential shifts in market dynamics.

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Gold Hits Record High Amid Global Uncertainty

Gold prices have surged to an unprecedented $5,080, marking a 17% increase this year alone. This surge is fueled by global trade tensions and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. government’s potential shutdown. According to the Kobeissi Letter, these factors have driven investors towards the safe-haven asset of gold.

Bitcoin Faces Challenges

In contrast, Bitcoin has faced a decline, dropping to around $86,000, a significant fall from its October peak of $126,000. This 30% decrease highlights the widening gap between Bitcoin and gold as investors seek stability in tumultuous times.

Market Dynamics and Investor Preferences

Jeff Mei, COO at BTSE exchange, notes that the market is currently pricing in the possibility of the Fed maintaining current interest rates, amidst strong economic growth. Traditionally, in uncertain periods, capital flows towards U.S. Treasuries and gold. However, due to recent tariff threats and potential government shutdowns, global investors are increasingly favoring gold over Treasuries.

Silver has also seen a significant rise, reaching over $107 per ounce, further indicating a shift towards precious metals.

As the financial landscape evolves, understanding the dynamics between gold and Bitcoin is crucial for investors looking to diversify and protect their portfolios. Keeping an eye on geopolitical developments and economic indicators can provide insights into future trends.

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Bitcoin-to-Gold Ratio: A Closer Look

During the span from December 2024 to the end of 2025, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio shifted from 40 to 20 ounces per BTC. This change was primarily driven by gold’s robust performance, fueled by sustained inflows as central banks accumulated 254 tonnes of gold by October, while global gold ETF holdings rose by 397 tonnes in the first half of 2025.

In contrast, Bitcoin demand softened in the latter half of the year. Spot ETFs’ assets under management (AUM) fell from $152 billion to $112 billion, and long-term holders sold over 500,000 BTC. This divergence highlights the broader macroeconomic dynamics influencing each asset.

Why Gold Outperformed Bitcoin in 2025

Gold emerged as the preferred store-of-value asset in 2025, boasting a year-to-date (YTD) gain of 63% and surpassing $4,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter. This rally was notable as it occurred despite restrictive monetary conditions, with US interest rates remaining high until the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in September.

Central banks were pivotal in this movement, with global purchases totaling 254 tonnes by October. The National Bank of Poland led this trend, adding 83 tonnes. Additionally, global gold ETFs saw significant growth, reaching a record high of 3,932 tonnes by November 2025.

Despite real yields averaging 1.8% across developed markets during the second quarter, gold’s appeal remained strong, with a 23% rally. This signaled a decoupling from its traditional inverse relationship with yields. Elevated geopolitical uncertainties further bolstered gold’s allure, as reflected in the increased volatility index (VIX) and geopolitical risk indexes.

Bitcoin’s Relative Underperformance

While Bitcoin did achieve six-figure returns in 2025, its performance paled in comparison to gold’s. The initial momentum in spot Bitcoin ETFs saw AUM rise from $120 billion in January to $152 billion by July. However, this momentum waned, with AUM dropping to $112 billion due to net outflows and reduced fresh capital influx.

On-chain data revealed significant distribution, with long-term holders realizing over $1 billion in profits daily during July, marking a major profit-taking phase. By October, long-term holders sold around 300,000 BTC, leading to a decrease in supply from 14.8 million BTC in July to approximately 14.3 million BTC.

High real yields throughout 2025 increased the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin. In contrast, gold benefited from safe-haven status and reserve-driven demand. This divergence explains the compression in the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, indicative of a cyclical repricing rather than a breakdown in Bitcoin’s long-term potential.

This analysis does not provide investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.

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Bitcoin Critic’s Bold Claims Against QE Impact

Schiff argues that if Bitcoin were truly “digital gold,” the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expansion should have led to a capital influx into BTC. Instead, funds have flowed into precious metals. The dollar index also weakened, while Bitcoin sold off alongside other risk assets.

Market Reactions and Bitcoin’s Struggle

The market’s reaction has become a real-time stress test that, according to Schiff, Bitcoin has failed. He claims this behavior proves Bitcoin acts more like a speculative trade rather than a monetary hedge when liquidity conditions shift.

As Schiff pointed out, “Now that QE is back, gold and silver are off to the races. Gold is up another $50 this morning, back above $4,325, and silver is up over 70 cents, trading above $64.20. Not only is Bitcoin not the fastest horse in the race, it’s not even running. Time to put it out to pasture.”

Bitcoin’s journey has been tumultuous. After reaching October highs near $120,000, it lost over 30%, dropping to the low $90,000s. Sellers pushed it further into November, but buyers defended the $80,600 area. The subsequent rebound appeared more technical than narrative-driven.

Bitcoin Critic Questions Media Focus

Schiff also critiques media coverage, noting that record movements in gold and silver are often downplayed, while Bitcoin’s price fluctuations dominate headlines. He argues this reflects investor psychology more than fundamental realities.

The longevity of Schiff’s predictions depends on future liquidity waves. If QE continues to favor metals, his assertions may gain traction. Conversely, if Bitcoin recovers and absorbs macroeconomic flows, his predictions may prove premature.

For those following the Bitcoin Critic’s insights, the unfolding economic landscape will either validate or challenge their stance on Bitcoin’s role as an inflation hedge.

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The monthly fund manager survey conducted by BofA Global Research highlights that a remarkable 43% of investors are now “long” on gold. This trend places gold ahead of even the renowned “Magnificent 7” group of leading U.S. technology stocks, which includes giants like Apple and Nvidia.

Gold Investment Surges Amid Market Uncertainty

The price of gold recently soared past the $4,100 mark, driven by a surge in demand for safe-haven assets. This increase is attributed to escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, coupled with expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month.

Market analysts note that while only 5% of surveyed investors cite the trade war as a primary “tail risk” for October, this figure has significantly declined from a peak of 80% in April. Despite this, concerns over an AI equity bubble have emerged for the first time in the survey’s history.

Investor Sentiment and Gold Allocation

According to the survey, a record 54% of investors believe that AI stocks are currently in a bubble, compared to 38% who disagree. When questioned about their gold allocation, 39% reported a position closest to 0%, whereas 19% had a 2% allocation, and 16% held a 4% allocation in gold.

BofA’s broad sentiment measure among fund managers rose to its highest since February, with stock allocations at an eight-month high and bond allocations at their lowest point since October 2022.

Key Insights from the BofA Survey

Several critical takeaways from the BofA survey include:

• Gold is the preferred safe haven amid geopolitical tensions.
• AI stocks are perceived as a potential bubble by a majority of investors.
• Gold allocations vary, with a significant portion of investors maintaining minimal exposure.
• Overall investor sentiment is on the rise, despite concerns over inflation and monetary policy independence.

As the financial landscape evolves, gold investment remains an attractive option for those seeking stability in uncertain times.

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Recent actions by President Trump indicate diminishing patience with Iran, with hints of potential U.S. involvement in Israel’s military actions. Trump’s Truth Social post stated that while the U.S. is aware of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s whereabouts, there are no current plans to remove him. The post also suggested a command of the Iranian airspace, though there’s no evidence that U.S. aircraft are involved.

There were slight increases in front-month WTI and Brent crude oil futures, which traded at $75.20 and $76.80 per barrel, respectively. Research analysts at CIMB Securities note that although oil price surges due to conflicts in the Middle East are typically short-term reactions, any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz shipping could have significant implications.

In uncertain times, gold is a popular safe-haven investment. However, as fears of a widening conflict increase, safe-haven flows have eased, resulting in a 0.2% decrease in spot gold prices. Bitcoin, which is often seen as a risk indicator, saw a slight increase of 0.2%.

Asian stock indexes are experiencing mixed trading patterns, affected by central bank decisions and country-specific factors. U.S. futures appear cautiously positive ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. Investors are keenly awaiting guidance from the central bank regarding the U.S. economy and future interest rate paths given signs of economic slowdown.

Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, highlighted that markets are expecting a larger escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict, with the U.S. expected to provide more than just technological and weapon support to Israel.

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Bitcoin was seen pulling back below the $103,000 mark as traders adopted a risk-averse stance in light of the burgeoning conflict between Israel and Iran. Gold, on the other hand, was on an upward trend. Traders, it seems, were shifting from riskier investments to traditional safe havens amid the growing geopolitical unrest.

Israel’s attack on Iran, which triggered fears of a wider conflict, led Bitcoin bulls to pause and secure recent gains. This move punctured the momentum that cryptocurrencies had been enjoying over the past few weeks. If the geopolitical situation worsens, the market could see increased volatility and a dwindling appetite for high-risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins.

Israel’s aggressive assault on Iran’s nuclear facilities and high-ranking military personnel, including the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, signaled a decisive strike rather than a warning. Iran retaliated by launching 100 drones at Israel, with reports suggesting many were intercepted outside Israeli airspace. As global markets brace themselves for a potentially protracted and dangerous war, Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei promises “severe punishment”.

Despite being touted as a hedge during crises, Bitcoin’s recent plunge shows its susceptibility to overall market sentiment. The war-induced narrative has led to a shift in capital flows towards defensive assets, away from the risk-prone crypto sphere. With no signs of the situation de-escalating, traders might opt to remain on the sidelines or move towards cash and gold. The current narrative underscores that crypto doesn’t fare well in chaos unless it’s financial – military chaos is a different ball game altogether.

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As reported on the Companies Market Cap website, this price hike lifted Bitcoin’s market capitalization to approximately $2.182 trillion. Bitcoin currently trails only behind tech behemoths Apple, NVIDIA, and Microsoft, and the conventional safe-haven asset, gold, which boasts a whopping capitalization exceeding $22 trillion.

Rob Nelson from The Street shared insights from a roundtable discussion held in February, featuring Gracy Chen Chen, Bitget’s Managing Director, who expressed optimism about Bitcoin’s prospects. Chen believes that with rising institutional adoption, changing regulations, and new practical applications, Bitcoin’s market cap will eventually surpass that of gold, possibly this year or in the next few.

Once referred to as “digital gold,” Bitcoin’s role has transformed substantially. Initially viewed as a risk-averse asset, it has become more intertwined with traditional financial markets, particularly with the expected approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024. Chen highlighted this shift, pointing to Bitcoin’s increased correlation with the US stock market.

Analysts are predicting a possible surge to $150,000, bolstered by positive regulatory developments in the US. Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of digital asset trading platform Nexo, sees the current market landscape as favorable for Bitcoin. He noted that we’re still in the fourth year of Bitcoin’s price cycle, a critical period following a halving event that has historically led to significant price hikes.

As of the time of writing, BTC is trading at $109,570, marking an increase of 3% and 25% over the 24-hour and 30-day periods, respectively.

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Bitcoin managed to maintain its pressure on the $108,000 target during the Wall Street opening on May 21. Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicate that BTC is moving closer to its daily high range as the US trading session begins. After its record daily close, Bitcoin is getting ready to face off with its all-time high just above $109,000.

Japan’s national debt issues have favored both Bitcoin and gold, with the latter reaching $3,320 per ounce, its highest since May 12. “Japan’s growing debt problem has been an underlying concern for a while, but it is now approaching a critical stage,” commented trading firm QCP Capital.

According to QCP, the recent Bitcoin gains seem to be driven by corporate accumulation, and a breakthrough of all-time highs could reignite retail interest. However, they also warned that “a slowdown in their buying could trigger profit-taking from other market participants and potentially reverse the prevailing uptrend.”

Concerns about the strength of the BTC price trend also arose from the BTCUSD chart. Prominent trader Roman cautioned that Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) now shows three bearish divergences simultaneously on daily timeframes.

Despite the bearish signals, numerous bullish BTC price targets are still in place, with $116,000 being a popular target once all-time highs are breached. Some have even predicted a price of $220,000 or more by 2025. Trader and analyst Aksel Kibar maintains the bull trend “remains intact” this week, with his chart indicating a $137,000 target.

QCP concluded, “Despite relentless macro headwinds including surging bond yields, tariff escalations, and mounting stagflation risks in the US for Q3 and Q4, BTC has demonstrated remarkable resilience over the past month. A breakout to new highs could ignite a fresh wave of FOMO, dragging in sidelined retail capital and pushing prices even higher.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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