In a post made on March 19, Ju suggested that those who use only onchain metrics to monitor retail movements might be missing crucial information. “Retail investors are probably engaging via ETFs— the paper Bitcoin layer — which does not reflect onchain,” Ju stated. He further explained that this occurrence keeps the realized cap lower than if the funds were directly transferred to exchange deposit wallets.

He noted that 80% of Bitcoin spot ETFs are from retail investors, a trend that Binance analysts had already identified in October of the previous year. These analysts had suggested that most ETF purchases were likely from retail investors transitioning their assets from wallets and exchanges to funds that offer greater regulatory protection.

Ju’s comments were in response to criticism of his earlier prediction that the “Bitcoin bull cycle is over” as announced on March 17. “I’ve been advocating for a bull market for the past two years, even when indicators were borderline. I’m sorry for the shift in perspective, but it’s becoming quite clear that we’re transitioning to a bear market,” he said.

Ju clarified that when he declared the bull cycle over, he meant that Bitcoin could take “6-12 months” to surpass its all-time high, not that it was on the brink of crashing. He noted that various indicators are showing a dearth of new liquidity, which is likely influenced by macro factors.

Market participants frequently use retail investor activity as an indicator of market saturation or as a signal to begin selling when the market seems to be overheating. Tools like the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, Google search trends, and the popularity of crypto apps globally help gauge the level of retail interest in the market.

As of now, the Google search score for “crypto” stands at 38, a significant drop from its score of 100 during the period when Bitcoin hit its record high of $109,000. Currently, Bitcoin is trading 22% lower than its January peak.

Note: This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading actions come with associated risks, and individuals should perform their own research before making a decision.

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