On Thursday, both the global stock market and the dollar showed modest growth, and U.S. Treasury yields experienced a slight increase. Furthermore, U.S. stock futures showed minimal fluctuation, while Nasdaq futures showed a minor rise of 0.2%.

In Europe, early trade saw Stoxx Europe 600 surge by 0.8%, France’s CAC 40 by 1.1%, and Germany’s DAX by 0.9%. European industrial companies enjoyed a boost as ABB reported a record second-quarter order intake and Legrand elevated its guidance. ABB and Siemens saw their shares rise by over 8% and nearly 4% respectively. The U.K. FTSE 100 also increased by 0.3%, although EasyJet shares dropped by over 7% due to higher fuel prices and strikes by France’s air traffic controllers impacting its pretax profit outlook.

Asian markets closed higher, largely driven by technology-related stocks. Japan’s Nikkei rose by 0.6%, despite shares of Seven & I Holdings plummeting by 9.2% after Alimentation Couche-Tard pulled its $47 billion bid to acquire the Japanese owner of 7-Eleven. South Korea’s Kospi also saw an increase, boosted by a 3.1% rise in Samsung Electronics following the clearance of its chairman of criminal charges by the country’s top court.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported record profits in Q2, largely fueled by robust chip demand for artificial-intelligence applications. This news assisted in driving broader gains in the sector. In Europe, ASML rose by 2.5%, while smaller peers ASM International and BE Semiconductor Industries surged by 3.3% and 3.5%, respectively. STMicroelectronics also grew by 3.4%.

After a significant dip on Wednesday due to concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. dollar recovered. The DXY dollar index rose by 0.2% against a basket of major currencies, reaching 98.591 after dropping to 97.714 on Wednesday. According to Tradeweb, the two-year U.S Treasury yield increased by 2.6 basis points to 3.910%, while the 10-year yield grew by 2 basis points to 4.474%.

Oil prices traded within a narrow range as investors evaluated U.S. demand signals and monitored global trade developments. Brent crude fell slightly by 0.2% to $68.39 a barrel, while WTI remained flat at $66.35 a barrel. Due to a stronger U.S. dollar, gold prices also experienced a minor decrease.

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The Fed’s decision comes amidst growing pressure from former U.S President Donald Trump, who recently threatened to dismiss Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell accusing him of being tardy in reducing rates.

On May 7, Powell highlighted that the rates in the 4.25% to 4.50% range were held due to potential risks of increased unemployment and inflation. He noted that inflation has decreased significantly, though it’s still surpassing their 2% long-term goal.

The Fed chair pointed out that surveys from households and businesses showed a significant drop in sentiment, primarily due to concerns over Trump’s trade policies. Despite these uncertainties, Powell maintains that the economy continues to be in a strong position.

According to data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the futures market expected very little chance of a rate cut prior to the announcement. Powell further noted that the unemployment rate is low, and the labor market is operating at or close to maximum employment. The market anticipates the Fed to lower the Fed funds rate to 3.6% by 2025’s end.

Bitcoin’s value briefly fell to $95,866 from below $97,000 after Powell’s speech, but it quickly rebounded, hitting $98,000 for the first time since February 21. Bitcoin’s momentum is on the rise, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index returning to “Greed” territory. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen inflows of nearly $4.41 billion since March 26.

Network economist Timothy Peterson warned on March 9 that if the Fed refrains from rate cuts in 2025, it could trigger a wider market crash, possibly pushing Bitcoin down to $70,000. Peterson issued this forecast after Powell’s declaration in March that there’s no rush and they’re well-prepared to wait for more clarity.

This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move comes with risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.

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Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have been vocal about their desire for reduced borrowing costs. Yet, Powell’s public comments on April 16 framed monetary policy as “in a wait-and-see mode,” asserting that while the labor market is “in decent shape,” the Fed’s “duty is to ensure longer-term inflation expectations are firmly anchored and to prevent a one-time price level increase from becoming a persistent inflation issue.” This suggests that the central bank continues to prioritize price stability amidst signs of a slowing economy and a potential shift to easing in the latter half of the year.

For Bitcoin, the discussion is less about whether the Fed will change course and more about how algorithmic liquidity and discretionary positioning will respond to Powell’s press conference. Crypto trader, Josh Rager, advised his followers to “Expect chop until FOMC tomorrow. Then after the rate cut announcement, expect volatility. With a reversal during Powell’s speech. That’s my FOMC playbook at the moment.”

Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) provided a more probabilistic perspective, highlighting that his patented FOMC-reversal model has “consistently predicted reversals with over an 85 percent chance. If the trend continues this month, we could see a significant downswing.”

However, he also cautioned that the ongoing quarterly uptrend in Bitcoin could dilute the signal. Columbus (@columbus0x) has his eyes on the microstructure for verification. Should Powell adopt a hawkish tone, Columbus anticipates “a deviation below the range low / a retest of the 200-day SMA, closing the CME gap between $91.8k and $92.4k – or possibly even dipping into the high $80’s. Nonetheless: the trend is up.”

As of the press time, BTC is trading at $94,097. The critical determinant will be Powell’s forward-guidance language and its effect on terminal-rate pricing. Tomorrow’s decision might appear binary on the surface, but the real story lies in the market’s reaction to the Fed’s near-term inflation mandate.

The post Predicting Bitcoin Prices: Crucial Factors for the Upcoming FOMC Decision appeared first on Crypto Market Insights: Dive In with CryptoUpdate.io.

In a recent interview, Elon Musk has said that governments cannot destroy cryptocurrencies despite desperate attempts. “It is not possible to, I think, destroy crypto,” he said. 

Elon Musk has long been a strong proponent of cryptocurrencies. Earlier in the year, he promised that Tesla would accept Bitcoin payments for its electric cars in the US. However, he later backtracked on his decision drawing flak from crypto enthusiasts from across the globe.  

As the US awaits the final approval of the over trillion-dollar infrastructure Bill, the debate around crypto regulations is once again ignited. Moreover, with China banning cryptocurrencies altogether, many policymakers in the US are seeing it as an opportunity while others warn caution. 

Earlier last week, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that they have no plans to ban crypto. The statement came after China’s extreme crackdown on crypto assets and service providers. When he was asked if he has plans to ban crypto, as China did, he said the US has no such intention. 

Elon Musk has come out and his statements coupled with what the US Federal Reserve  Chair said earlier has helped the market sentiments. While Bitcoin showed temporary resistance and traded in green, the other altcoin prices reverberated the same. 

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