Impact of Bitcoin Veterans Cashing Out

According to noted gold investor Peter Schiff, Bitcoin is experiencing its “IPO moment.” When experienced holders become sellers, the market supply surges, potentially leading to deeper selloffs in the future. Schiff emphasizes that the transition of Bitcoin from strong hands to weak ones not only boosts the available float but also suggests that upcoming selloffs might intensify.

Schiff’s perspective has been echoed by bearish analysts over the years, but now it coincides with significant on-chain activities and large ETF outflows. Traders observe that when confident, long-term holders start trimming their positions near market peaks, a collective sell-off can result in dramatic price fluctuations.

Whale Movements and Major Sales

Recent reports indicate that during October, whales and early Bitcoin wallets moved over 400,000 BTC, contributing to substantial selling pressure. Owen Gunden, an early investor, reportedly liquidated his entire 11,000 BTC holdings during October and November. Similarly, renowned retail investor Robert Kiyosaki sold Bitcoin worth approximately $2.25 million, sharing that he initially bought at around $6,000 and sold near $90,000, intending to reinvest the proceeds into income-generating businesses.

ETF Flows and Retail Sentiment

Analysts at Bitfinex highlight two primary factors for the recent price drop: sales by long-term holders and leveraged liquidations in derivatives markets. When margin positions unwind, prices may decline further before stabilizing. Bloomberg data reveals that investors withdrew nearly $1 billion from Bitcoin ETFs in a single session, marking the second-largest daily outflow among 12 funds. BlackRock’s IBIT led with $355 million in withdrawals, while Grayscale’s GBTC and Fidelity’s FBTC witnessed around $200 million each.

Despite these outflows, there was a notable reversal, with ETFs recording $238 million in inflows recently, illustrating the market’s unpredictable nature. Schiff’s warning underscores Bitcoin’s vulnerability when major holders decide to sell. Even with institutional purchases, transferring coins from long-term holders to casual investors could result in more severe and rapid future price declines.

Market observers will likely focus closely on the actions of these veteran holders, as their decisions might dictate the severity of the next potential market downturn.

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XRP Volume Marks Significant Movement

The recent spike in XRP volume is drawing significant attention. Amid a broader market sell-off, XRP’s trading volume climbed 71% to $7.4 billion. This uptick in activity suggests that traders see XRP entering a “good buy” zone, with the cryptocurrency’s price dropping nearly 5% to $2.10 before stabilizing at $2.18.

According to on-chain analytics firm Santiment, XRP’s active wallets over the past 30 days have exhibited an average performance of -10.2%, marking it as a potential attractive buy. The lower the MVRV ratio, the greater the likelihood of a swift recovery.

Market Sentiment and Future Resistance Levels

The current market environment is characterized by “extreme fear,” with the Fear & Greed Index hitting lows not seen since July 2022. This atmosphere of fear increases the probability of a relief rally. If a rebound occurs, XRP could face resistance at $2.50 and $2.63, with the $2 level serving as a potential support point.

Dogecoin Price Poised for a Rebound

Dogecoin’s trading volume has surged by over 43%, signaling a possible price rebound. CoinMarketCap data shows that the Dogecoin price is buoyed by this increased activity, with volumes rising 43.5% to $3.1 billion. This surge suggests a strong interest from both buyers and sellers, often a precursor to notable price movements.

The Dogecoin price has historically benefited from high trading volumes, driven by retail hype and whale accumulation. This latest volume increase could herald a bullish shift, especially given Dogecoin’s reliance on social media virality.

Shiba Inu Faces a Selling Wave

Shiba Inu (SHIB) is witnessing significant exchange inflows, indicating mounting sell-side pressure. With the price around $0.0000087, the market is bracing for a potential sell-off as approximately 120 billion SHIB tokens have moved onto exchanges, preparing for a possible price dip.

The SHIB market remains in a downward trend, with the token trading below critical moving averages. This influx of tokens onto exchanges typically signals an intent to sell, further compounding the bearish outlook.

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This occurrence has sparked an ongoing debate: does this signal a local bottom, or could Bitcoin face further declines? The significance of the Bitcoin Death Cross cannot be underestimated in the current market climate. As of now, Bitcoin trades near $93,646, having dipped below the $94,000 mark for the first time since May 5.

What is a Bitcoin Death Cross?

In technical analysis, a Death Cross emerges when the short-term moving average crosses below a long-term moving average, indicating potential downward pressure. The current market sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish, reflected in the Fear & Greed Index plummeting to 10, signaling extreme fear. Whale activity and spot ETF outflows have intensified the downward trend.

Nevertheless, analysts caution that a Death Cross does not guarantee an imminent crash. Historical data from 2014 to 2025 presents mixed short-term outcomes but suggests strong medium- to long-term rebounds in several cycles.

Historical Performance: Short and Medium-Term Insights

According to data from Mario Nawfal and on-chain analysts, the immediate aftermath of a Death Cross varies:

• 1–3 weeks post-cross: Returns are approximately 50/50 between gains and losses, with median returns slightly positive (0.25–2.35%).
• 2–3 months post-cross: Average gains increase to 15–26%, indicating potential recovery if historical patterns hold true.
• 12 months later: Outcomes differ significantly, with some cycles achieving 85%+ gains, while others experience substantial drawdowns.

Experts like Benjamin Cowen and Rekt Fencer assert that previous Bitcoin Death Crosses often marked local lows instead of market peaks. The timing of Bitcoin’s next bounce will be crucial; if a rally does not occur within 7 days, analysts warn that another decline could precede a larger recovery.

Future Outlook for Bitcoin Investors

Technical and macro indicators highlight critical levels:

• Support range: $60,000–$70,000, a potential floor if selling pressure intensifies.
• Bullish confirmation: Regaining the 200-day moving average as support may signal renewed upward momentum.

Analyst Brett suggests that the 50-week moving average (MA) serves as a more significant long-term indicator than the Death Cross alone. Historical cycles reveal that Death Crosses during bull markets often precede rallies toward new all-time highs, whereas those in bear markets tend to be short-lived.

Investors should closely monitor short-term price actions, as historical data implies: a bounce within a week could indicate the bull cycle is intact, while failure to bounce might trigger another decline. Despite the cautionary signal of a Bitcoin Death Cross, past trends show that Bitcoin often rebounds after such events.

Traders are advised to remain vigilant, observe key support levels, and be prepared for short-term volatility, even as potential medium- and long-term gains remain within reach.

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On Sunday, XRP’s price fell by 1.34%, reaching $2.22. This marks the sixth consecutive day of decline, dropping from a high of $2.56 on November 11 to a low of $2.18. According to TradingView, XRP’s weekly performance has plummeted by 5.97%, marking three straight weeks of declines. The loss of a crucial weekly support, the 50-day moving average at $2.543, underscores the challenges XRP is facing.

XRP Downtrend and the Massive Short Position

One of the primary drivers of the XRP downtrend is the opening of a massive short position by a crypto trader associated with Roobet and Stake. This trader has leveraged maximum shorts not only on XRP but also on Bitcoin and Zcash, creating a total position size of $196 million. Specifically, a 20x short position on XRP involves 12.34 million XRP, valued at $27.4 million.

This strategic shorting coincides with an uptick in whale activity within the XRP market. According to data from Lookonchain, considerable whale transactions have been observed, with nearly 200 million XRP sold in just 48 hours. This activity has undoubtedly contributed to the pressure on XRP’s price.

Whale Activity and Market Sentiment

The increased whale activity is a double-edged sword for XRP. While it signifies interest and movement, it also indicates potential sell-offs that can drive prices downward. The launch of the Canary XRP ETF, which recorded an impressive $58 million in day-one volume, has been a significant event. However, it also marks a period of volatility and uncertainty.

Crypto analyst Ali reports 716 large whale transactions, each surpassing $1 million. This is the highest activity level recorded in four months. Additionally, Whale Alert has tracked two transactions, each moving 45 million XRP between unknown wallets, totaling over $101 million.

Implications for Traders

For traders, the XRP downtrend and associated whale movements present both challenges and opportunities. The current market sentiment is cautious, as the potential for further declines looms. However, for those willing to navigate the volatility, there may be opportunities to capitalize on price swings.

As the market digests these developments, traders will be keenly observing whether this massive short position will trigger further declines or if a reversal is on the horizon.

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Following a notable market rally last Friday, the mood in the crypto sphere shifted towards optimism, fueled by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole economic symposium. Powell hinted that the first rate cut of 2025 might occur as early as September.

Understanding the Fed Rate Chatter

Santiment’s recent report highlights that the spike in social media discussions related to the Fed and interest rate cuts has reached its highest point in 11 months. Historically, such heightened activity around a singular bullish narrative can often prelude a market top, suggesting that euphoria might be reaching unsustainable levels.

Why Crypto Investors Should Be Cautious

While anticipation of a rate cut is currently buoying the market, Santiment advises caution. Powell’s recent speech indicated that adjustments to the Fed’s monetary policy might be necessary given current inflation and labor market conditions. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, a substantial 75% of market participants anticipate a rate cut in September.

Many crypto analysts have been closely watching the Fed’s decisions, drawing correlations between interest rate changes and market movements. While some experts view a rate cut as a bullish trigger, opinions remain divided.

Perspectives from the Crypto Community

Prominent crypto trader Ash Crypto expressed optimism, predicting that the Fed’s actions could lead to a dramatic increase in market liquidity. He forecasted that “trillions will flow into the crypto market,” potentially igniting a parabolic phase where altcoins might witness exponential growth.

Conversely, Markus Thielen from 10x Research suggested that expecting immediate bullish movement might be premature. He warned of potential short-term pressures due to recession fears, despite the long-term opportunities for Bitcoin (BTC).

Timothy Peterson, a network economist, provided another perspective, noting that if the Fed refrains from taking action this year, it could spell challenges for crypto markets. He cautioned that a lack of rate cuts in 2025 might trigger a broader market downturn.

The Road Ahead for Crypto Investors

As the crypto community grapples with the implications of the Fed rate chatter, investors must remain vigilant. Understanding the nuances behind these discussions and the potential market impacts will be crucial in navigating the evolving landscape.

In conclusion, while the prospect of a rate cut may seem promising, the elevated social media buzz serves as a reminder to approach the market with caution. Staying informed and prepared for various scenarios will be key for investors aiming to thrive in the dynamic crypto environment.

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The offering, based on the sale of 30 million shares, has valued Bullish at approximately $5.41 billion. Originally, the company aimed to price its shares between $32 and $33, but the final pricing surpassed these expectations. This remarkable achievement showcases the growing confidence and interest in cryptocurrency exchanges.

Understanding the Impact of Bullish IPO

The Bullish IPO is not just a win for the company; it is a reflection of the resurgence in U.S. equity capital markets. After a prolonged period of stagnation, initial public offerings (IPOs) are making a robust comeback, with Bullish leading the charge.

Several factors have contributed to this renewed interest. The success of Bullish IPO is reminiscent of other recent market debuts, such as the upsized IPO of stablecoin issuer Circle Internet and the spectacular market entry of design software maker Figma, whose shares surged by 250% shortly after their debut.

Key Factors Driving Bullish IPO Success

The Bullish IPO’s success can be attributed to several key factors:

• Strong Backing: Bullish is supported by influential backers, including billionaire investor Peter Thiel, which adds credibility and attracts investor interest.
• Market Resurgence: The resurgence of IPOs in the U.S. signals renewed investor confidence in the equity markets.
• Cryptocurrency Appeal: With the growing acceptance of cryptocurrencies, exchanges like Bullish are positioned to capitalize on this trend.

These elements combined have created a fertile ground for Bullish to not only meet but exceed its IPO goals.

Future Implications for Cryptocurrency Exchanges

The successful launch of the Bullish IPO serves as a beacon of optimism for other cryptocurrency exchanges considering going public. It underscores the potential for high valuations and investor interest in the sector.

As the market continues to evolve, exchanges that can demonstrate strong fundamentals and secure backing are likely to follow in Bullish’s footsteps, paving the way for further growth and innovation in the industry.

In conclusion, the Bullish IPO represents a significant milestone, not only for the company but for the entire cryptocurrency exchange landscape. This event highlights the dynamic and rapidly growing interest in the cryptocurrency sector, promising exciting developments in the future.

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The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for long-term holders (LTH) is one metric gaining attention. It has reached a new high for 2025, according to CryptoQuant analyst Gaah. This indicator measures the profitability of coins moved by owners who have held their Bitcoin for over 155 days. Current readings suggest that LTHs are starting to sell at a profit, but the SOPR is yet to reach the critical levels traditionally associated with market peaks.

Gaah pointed out that while the LTH SOPR has crossed the midpoint and is slightly above 2.5, it’s still far below the 4.0 level, which has historically signaled macro peaks in past cycles. This indicates that long-term investors are making profits, but not in a manner that suggests a market frenzy or widespread divestment. Higher SOPR readings above 4.0 in previous bull cycles marked the beginning of substantial corrections or cycle peaks.

The steady rise in profit-taking suggests a maturing market that still has upward potential. Gaah advises investors to view this as part of the natural progression of a bullish phase, although correction risks persist. The ongoing patterns of accumulation and realization by LTHs offer a glimpse into how confidence and caution can coexist in the market.

In related news, CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain pointed out the continual activity in the Bitcoin derivatives market. He noted that the total number of outstanding futures contracts, or open interest, remains high near $42 billion. Though slightly down from recent peaks, this level is near historical highs and shows robust trader involvement.

Arab Chain also underlined the impact of rising funding rates on market sentiment. Presently, these funding rates show a dominance of long positions, suggesting a bullish market. However, with high open interest and increasing leveraged trades, this could also indicate a higher risk of volatility. An unexpected price shift could trigger widespread liquidations if funding becomes unsustainable, forcing exchanges to close positions.

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As per CryptoWzrd, Litecoin concluded its daily trading with a bearish candle, mirroring Bitcoin’s price behavior. This correlation implies that LTC’s price is profoundly impacted by the wider market sentiment and Bitcoin’s directional shifts. The LTCBTC pair, however, ended the day inconclusively, providing no definite indication of strength or weakness against Bitcoin.

CryptoWzrd emphasized that for Litecoin to experience a consistent uptrend, healthier and more positive candles are required on the LTCBTC chart. Without this, expectations for a breakout remain uncertain. He added that a decrease in Bitcoin dominance would be a pivotal element in propelling altcoin growth, including Litecoin.

From a technical perspective, Litecoin is currently striving to break the $96 daily resistance. If successful, this could pave the way for a more robust rally, possibly stretching toward the $128 resistance area. However, this scenario hinges on supportive market conditions and renewed vigor in the altcoin market.

If things take a turn for the worse, the $80 mark emerges as the key daily support level. A dip below this threshold could spark a more profound correction and postpone any bullish prospects. Staying above this support level is crucial to maintaining the broader market structure and keeping upward goals within reach.

Looking forward, CryptoWzrd plans to keep an eye on lower time frames to identify potential short-term trading opportunities. His strategy involves dissecting intraday chart patterns to leverage brief price fluctuations as the broader market scenario develops.

In conclusion, CryptoWzrd pointed out that the day’s intraday chart for Litecoin was characterized by volatility and a bearish leaning, making it difficult to find clear-cut trading setups. He stressed the need for patience, advising traders to wait for a better trading location before entering any trades.

As per the expert, a climb above the $90 intraday resistance would be a positive sign and could present a potential long opportunity. However, if the price fails to surpass this level, it could apply additional downward pressure. For now, CryptoWzrd stressed the importance of patience, waiting for the market to present a healthier setup before making a move.

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As reported by CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost, BTC funding rates on Binance switched from positive to negative. This change occurred despite the leading cryptocurrency trading above the $100,000 threshold at the time of reporting.

The sudden funding rate reversal, from +0.003 to -0.004, is believed to be a result of the public disagreement between Trump and Musk on social media platforms. Following this change in sentiment, BTC’s price fell from the mid-$100,000s to a low of $100,984, as per CoinGecko data. Over the last fortnight, the digital asset’s value has dropped by 4.1%.

However, this dip might present a golden opportunity for investors. A strong BTC rebound could lead to increased buying pressure, potentially triggering a short squeeze that could further elevate BTC’s price.

Darkfost indicated that there have been three instances in the current market cycle where BTC experienced such deep negative funding. Each instance was succeeded by a significant upward price movement. For instance, on October 16, 2023, and September 9, 2024, BTC rallied from $28,000 to $73,000 and $57,000 to $108,000, respectively following a dip into negative funding territory. The most recent case was on May 2, 2025, with BTC jumping from $97,000 to a new all-time high (ATH) of $111,000.

Bitcoin whales, or large BTC holders, continue to accumulate the digital asset. New whales have reportedly added BTC worth $63 billion to their holdings, signalling strong confidence in the cryptocurrency’s future performance.

Backing this bullish outlook, a recent analysis by QCR Capital suggests that large investors predict BTC could reach as high as $130,000 by the end of Q3 2025. Furthermore, the realized cap held by long-term holders has exceeded $20 billion, further bolstering positive sentiment.

Despite this optimism, some analysts are preaching caution, predicting a BTC crash below the $100,000 mark before a bullish resurgence. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $104,069, down 0.5% in the last 24 hours.

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Key Insights:

On April 23, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index recorded a significant two-month high reaching the “Greed” zone. Despite Bitcoin’s persistent price hold, the sentiment score is slowly decreasing, leading to a growing skepticism among analysts regarding the rally’s longevity.

The crypto market continues to be dominated by Bitcoin, with its dominance over 64%. Additionally, strong ETF inflows and a low altcoin season score are recorded.

Bitcoin’s several-day spike above $90,000 led the crypto market sentiment to its highest point in more than two months on April 23. However, this trend seems to be gradually tapering off as analysts voice concerns about the sustainability of Bitcoin’s rally.

Despite Bitcoin’s trading range between $91,800 and $94,304 over the last two days, the sentiment within the “Greed” zone has been gradually fading, with the index dropping to 60 on April 25.

The slight decline follows cautionary advice from several crypto analysts, including Markus Thielen, Head of Research at 10x Research, who remains conservative about the Bitcoin rally.

However, others express a more bullish outlook. Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, suggested on April 24 that “buyers are likely going to step in, and then we’ll be continuing our path toward a new [all-time high].”

According to CoinMarketCap’s altcoin season index, the market is still heavily leaning towards Bitcoin over altcoins. Bitcoin’s dominance is recorded at 64.39% as per TradingView data.

Bitcoin sentiment has accelerated since it hit the mid-$80,000 price bracket. Crypto analytics firm, Santiment, noted that the tone of Bitcoin-related social media posts has turned bullish.

Meanwhile, an April 25 post by crypto analyst Trader T highlighted that US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen their third-best week of inflows since their launch in January 2024. In the past four trading days, spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $2.6 billion in net inflows.

Note: This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move entails risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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