Bitcoin experienced a minor setback from its record peak near $123,200. The value slipped below $119,500 and the 100 hourly Simple Moving Average. However, a rising channel is noted, with support at $118,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data sourced from Kraken). A potential upswing could be on the horizon if Bitcoin can overcome the $120,000 resistance zone.

Bitcoin began a slight downward correction after hitting the all-time high of $123,200. BTC fell below the $122,000 and $120,000 support levels, entering a brief bearish phase. However, the fall was tempered, and support was discovered near the $115,800 zone, preventing a dip below $118,000.

The cryptocurrency held steady above the 50% Fib retracement level of its ascent from the $108,636 low to the $123,140 high. As of now, Bitcoin is trading below $119,500 with a rising channel forming at $118,200 support on its hourly chart. The immediate resistance stands at the $119,200 level, with crucial resistance at the $119,500 and $120,000 levels.

Should the $120,000 resistance be broken, Bitcoin might see another rise. In this scenario, the cryptocurrency could test the $121,200 resistance level, and further gains could take it to $122,000, with the main target being its previous high of $123,200.

However, if Bitcoin fails to break the $120,000 resistance, it could continue its downward trend. Immediate support is situated at the $118,200 level and within the channel. The first significant support is near the $116,500 level, with the next support at the $115,500 zone. Further losses might take the value down to $113,500, and the main support is at $110,500, below which Bitcoin might continue its downward trajectory.

Technical indicators:
Hourly MACD – The MACD indicates a slowing momentum in the bearish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is currently below the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – $118,200, followed by $115,500.
Major Resistance Levels – $120,000 and $122,000.

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The recent price movement indicates a recovery from former lows but still stays within a narrow band, hinting at investor skepticism amid prevailing macroeconomic uncertainties. CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan, sheds light on a developing trend, juxtaposing Bitcoin’s present behavior with prior adjustment cycles.

In his latest QuickTake post, “Cryptocurrency Market Reflects the 2024 Adjustment Period,” Dan scrutinizes the market’s speculative dynamics by examining the actions of short-term holders. His study implies that the recent slowdown could imitate patterns detected during the past year’s correction phase.

Dan suggests that a reliable indicator of market overheating is the share of Bitcoin supply held for one week to one month. A rise in this metric often flags speculative excitement, which can lead to corrections.

Dan observes that the current cycle shows this metric has once again reached an area previously linked with market bottoms—the same ‘yellow box’ that coincided with the 2024 low during the correction phase. He theorizes that speculative excess has largely diminished, paving the way for potential price growth if macroeconomic conditions keep improving. However, he stresses that further consolidation might be needed before a significant trend alteration takes place.

Adding to this analysis, CryptoQuant contributor Mignolet highlighted a significant change in coin movement behavior. He pointed out that approximately 170,000 BTC recently moved from the 3–6 month holding group. This group usually consists of mid-term holders, and major activity from them has historically foretold increased price volatility.

Mignolet emphasized that while the direction remains undetermined, the heightened activity serves as an early alert that traders should be prepared for a potential breakout or breakdown in the near future.

The post Bitcoin Hovers Around $84K: Analyst Predicts 2025 May Reflect Last Year’s Surge appeared first on Crypto Market Insights: Dive In with CryptoUpdate.io.