Peterson, who penned “Metcalfe’s Law as a Model for Bitcoin’s Value,” used the potential fall of Nasdaq to estimate the potential low for Bitcoin in the “next bear market”. According to his model, the bottom could take approximately seven months to form, with Nasdaq seeing a 17% fall over this period. Utilizing a “1.9” multiplier for Bitcoin’s drop, Peterson predicts a decrease of 33% in Bitcoin’s value, bringing it down to $57,000 from its current price of $86,199 as per CoinMarketCap data.

However, Peterson is optimistic that Bitcoin won’t plunge that significantly. He anticipates a floor closer to the low $70,000 range, based on past trends from 2022. He believes that once the market anticipates Bitcoin to reach $57,000, investors will step in, considering the price to be “low enough.”

Peterson recalls 2022 when Bitcoin’s low was expected to be $12k, but it only fell to $16k, 25% higher than expected. Applying this logic to the current scenario, he suggests a 25% increase from $57,000, which lands at $71,000. Bitcoin last traded at this price level on Nov. 6, following Donald Trump’s US election victory, before rallying and hitting $100,000 by Dec. 5.

Co-founder of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, offered a similar price prediction in January 2025, foreseeing a correction in Bitcoin to $70k to $75k. He predicts a mini financial crisis, followed by a resurgence of money printing, which could propel Bitcoin to $250k by the end of the year.

In December 2024, Blockware Solutions, a crypto mining firm, mentioned the “bear case” for Bitcoin in 2025 would be $150,000, given the Federal Reserve reconsiders its stance on interest rate cuts.

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