Key on-chain data reveals an unexpected trend – despite Bitcoin prices lingering near record highs, major stakeholders are not transferring their cryptocurrency to exchanges. This, according to a post shared on July 23 by CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain, indicates a firm belief in the longevity of Bitcoin’s price surge.

The Bitcoin Flow Pulse (BFP) indicator displays a notably low volume of Bitcoin moving towards exchanges, even after the digital currency recorded a milestone high of $123,091 according to CoinMarketCap. Traditionally, a rise in BTC inflow to exchanges hinted at a potential sell-off, increasing supply and often leading to a price decline. The lack of such a surge now is seen by Arab Chain as a positive sign of steadfast holders.

Bitcoin’s price trajectory reflects this balance between confidence and caution. Although the digital asset has risen 16.2% over the past month and 8.9% in the past two weeks, it has entered a consolidation phase following its all-time high nine days ago. CoinGecko data shows it trading between $118,042 and $120,222 in the past 24 hours, with resistance near the $123,000 mark.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant highlights a surge in retail selling pressure, especially on Binance. Inflows from smaller traders have significantly increased on the exchange, and Net Taker Volume has turned negative, likely indicating a bearish sentiment among this group. However, whales in the market are snapping up everything, with on-chain data showing that $200 million in BTC was withdrawn from exchanges yesterday. This suggests that big investors are taking advantage of the fear among retail traders.

The market currently teeters on a precarious balance. While low exchange inflows suggested by the BFP indicate strong conviction among holders, there are also signs of profit-taking and increased retail selling that introduce near-term obstacles that need to be considered.

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However, this upward trend began to lose steam upon the release of positive employment statistics from the United States. Despite expectations of bullish reactions to this data, Bitcoin’s price didn’t reflect this. Regardless, on-chain insights reveal a specific group of investors making a comeback in the market and wagering on the world’s leading cryptocurrency by market cap.

In a brief report on CryptoQuant, on-chain analyst Amr Taha underscored the growing divergence between retail and institutional behaviors within the Bitcoin market. Taha noted that Bitcoin futures Open Interest (OI) on Binance continues to hover below $11.5 billion, a price level that has acted as a robust resistance, with traders repeatedly closing positions near this threshold.

On the contrary, short-term holders (STH), primarily retail traders, have amplified their market presence by approximately 382,000 BTC, indicating renewed retail interest in Bitcoin. Contrarily, long-term holders (LTH) have reduced their holdings by a similar magnitude, which Taha suggests may be due to profit-taking or risk management.

Taha also reported that large holders (those holding over 10,000 BTC) shed approximately 12,000 BTC on July 3rd, hinting at potential profit-taking or strategic reallocation. Mid-sized whales (those holding between 1,000-10,000 BTC) also offloaded some of their holdings from June 30th, with roughly 14,000 BTC being sold.

The future of the Bitcoin market remains uncertain, hinging on the renewed confidence of larger players. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s value stands at $108,152, with no significant movement witnessed in the last 24 hours.

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Martinez believes that Bitcoin’s top market value during this bull cycle could reach $120,000, based on the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD). This on-chain metric gauges spending activity of long-term holders by tracking the total coin-days destroyed when dormant Bitcoin moves. A rise in CVDD usually signifies profit-taking by long-term holders, indicating an overheated market, while decreased CVDD indicates accumulation phases.

Renowned analytics firm CryptoQuant uses the CVDD to produce multiple layers, each representing different aspects of the bull market. The Accessing Tops layer, the black line, is currently around $120,000, suggesting this could be the next market peak. Another crucial layer is the Accumulating Phase 2, positioned at $90,000, acting as the first significant support line for bulls.

As Bitcoin’s price hovers around $103,242, Martinez warns that maintaining the $90,000 price support is crucial for Bitcoin’s bull structure and a potential climb to $120,000.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $103,573, with a slight market gain of 0.09% in the past day. According to Martinez, major positive developments will only occur if the price closes above $107,000. Bullish sentiments remain high, as demonstrated by the Bitcoin Spot ETFs, which registered a net inflow of $1.81 billion in the past week.

With a market cap of $2.04 trillion, Bitcoin maintains its position as the most valuable digital asset, holding about 62.8% of the crypto market.

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The Cumulative Value-Days Destroyed (CVDD) is an on-chain metric which evaluates the total coin-days destroyed when dormant Bitcoin is moved, thereby reflecting the spending habits of long-term holders. A rise in CVDD can indicate significant profit-taking by these holders, often a sign of an overheated market, while decreased CVDD suggests accumulation phases.

According to the chart Martinez provided, leading analytics company CryptoQuant projects Bitcoin’s current CVDD at $34,154 into several layers, each symbolizing different elements of the bull market. The ‘Accessing Tops’ line, for example, extends the CVDD to an upper band that the price has hit at major peaks—currently around $120,000. This suggests the next market peak could be at this level.

Another key layer in CryptoQuant’s CVDD projection is the ‘Accumulating Phase 2’, a support band that has consistently underpinned the price. Currently positioned at $90,000, this represents the first major support level for the bulls.

At the moment, Bitcoin is trading at $103,242. Martinez emphasizes that maintaining the $90,000 support level is crucial for Bitcoin’s bull trend, potentially paving the way for a rise to $120,000.

As of writing, Bitcoin trades at $103,573, a modest market gain of 0.09% from the previous day. However, daily trading volume has dropped by 17.92%, signaling a decrease in market activity. The next resistance level is expected to be around $105,000, but Martinez asserts that a meaningful rally will only occur if the price closes above $107,000. Despite these challenges, bullish sentiments remain buoyant, as demonstrated by the Bitcoin Spot ETFs’ strong performance, with a net inflow of $1.81 billion over the past week.

With a market capitalization of $2.04 trillion, Bitcoin continues to be the most valuable cryptocurrency, comprising about 62.8% of the crypto market.

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Boosting this budding optimism is on-chain data from IntoTheBlock, which reveals a steady exodus of ETH from centralized exchanges—a signal frequently linked with accumulation and a decrease in sell-side pressure. In the past week, net outflows have surpassed $380 million in Ethereum value, strengthening the belief that investors are bracing for a price increase.

However, the $2,000 level remains a significant psychological and technical hurdle. A definitive surge above this level could instigate a wider altcoin rally and mark the beginning of Ethereum’s next upswing. Until then, the market is cautiously hopeful as bullish forces probe the upper boundaries of this consolidation phase, seeking the momentum required to break free.

Ethereum Encounters Significant Challenge Amid Accumulation Trend

As Ethereum trades over 55% below its December highs, the $2,000 resistance zone continues to keep it in check. Despite signs of a broader crypto market revival, ETH is caught in a crucial standoff between overhead supply and revitalized buying interest. The current price pattern reveals some bullish progression in the lower time frames, as buyers try to build momentum. Yet, formidable resistance levels persist, and failure to breach them could provoke a downward move into lower demand zones around $1,700 or even $1,500.

Despite these technical hurdles, on-chain data offers a more optimistic outlook. According to IntoTheBlock, centralized exchanges have recorded net Ethereum outflows of approximately $380 million in the past seven days. This consistent shrinkage in exchange-held ETH indicates an increasing trend of accumulation, often seen as investors transferring coins to cold storage instead of priming them for sale. This action typically eases sell-side pressure and can set the stage for more durable rallies.

Market sentiment is diversified. While some analysts believe Ethereum is preparing for a breakout, with shifting momentum implying an impending surge, others remain wary, citing macroeconomic instability and volatile investor confidence as potential triggers for a deeper ETH correction. The forthcoming days will be instrumental in shaping Ethereum’s path.

ETH Price Analysis: Probing Crucial Resistance

Currently, Ethereum (ETH) is trading at $1,837 following several days of consolidation just beneath the $1,850 level. As depicted in the daily chart, ETH has been striving to build a short-term bullish pattern after bouncing back from April lows around $1,550. The price has been on a steady uptrend but now faces significant resistance near the $1,850 level—a level that has previously acted as both support and resistance.

Trading volume has remained relatively stable, albeit not convincingly robust, suggesting that while bulls are assuming control, they lack the strong momentum needed for a breakthrough. The 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,271 and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,456 remain distant goals above. Reclaiming these levels would serve as a major bullish indicator.

For the time being, ETH needs to close decisively above $1,850 to affirm this short-term trend reversal. Failure to do so may lead to another retest of support around $1,700 or even lower, especially if broader market sentiment takes a downturn. However, the price maintaining above recent swing lows and forming higher lows indicates that bullish pressure is incrementally building. A breakout above $1,850 could pave the way for a move towards the $2,000–$2,200 range.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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The ‘Supply Distribution’ measure, which among other factors, tracks the number of wallets belonging to a specific group, shows interesting trends for substantial holders of the cryptocurrency. These groups, or cohorts, are distinguished based on the quantity of tokens they hold.

For example, the cohort holding between 1 and 10 tokens is one group. However, the focal point here is the group possessing more than 10 tokens, with no upper limit. As per the current exchange rate, this translates to approximately $821,000, indicating that only significant investors qualify for this category, notably the ‘sharks’ and ‘whales’.

Entities with larger holdings have increased influence over the market. Therefore, trends regarding these ‘sharks’ and ‘whales’ are crucial to observe. The Supply Distribution provides one method of tracking these key investors. The recent chart presented by Santiment depicts the trend of this metric over the previous few months:

As shown in the chart, the Bitcoin Supply Distribution for the group holding more than 10 coins was on a slow downward trajectory in recent weeks. However, there has been a positive shift in the last day. This indicates that the number of ‘sharks’ and ‘whales’ is once again increasing.

This resurgence in large entities coincides with US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day suspension of tariffs for most countries. This decision, following the fear and uncertainty that led to a market crash, has resulted in a rebound for Bitcoin and other digital assets.

During this recovery, the number of wallets holding more than 10 coins has increased by 132, the largest surge since February 20. Santiment views this as a sign of heightened confidence among significant stakeholders in the crypto market.

It remains to be seen whether these high-value investors will continue to invest in Bitcoin in the forthcoming days. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at roughly $82,100, marking a 1% decrease over the past week.

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In a surprising turn of events, on-chain data analysis from Lookonchain suggests that a prominent whale in the crypto market recently sold all their holdings of the meme coin PEPE, possibly to break even. The whale’s actions involved selling over 1 trillion PEPE within the last 24 hours.

The blockchain tracking firm Lookonchain took to Twitter this morning to share this intriguing development. According to their post, the smart money investor exchanged 1.33 trillion PEPE for 1,162 Ethereum (ETH), which is approximately valued at $2.115 million. The average sell price was calculated to be around $0.000001595.

At present, PEPE’s price has experienced a 9.41% drop, leaving it at $0.000001546. This decline coincided with the whale’s sell-off and further affected the meme coin’s performance when compared to the leading cryptocurrencies Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Over the past 24 hours, PEPE lost 8.30% against BTC and 8.82% against ETH.

Market Performance and Price Analysis

PEPE’s trading volume also saw a significant decrease, dropping by more than 43%, which brings the total volume to $225,497,257 at the time of this report. Furthermore, the meme coin traded closer to its 24-hour low of $0.000001535 rather than reaching its daily high of $0.000001736.

In terms of price movement, PEPE briefly surpassed the resistance level at $0.0000016670 on Saturday evening, reaching a high of $0.0000015653. However, this upward momentum triggered profit-taking among investors and traders, leading to a slight pullback that closed the 4-hour candle at $0.0000017497.

Unfortunately, PEPE failed to maintain its position above the aforementioned resistance level and closed yesterday afternoon at $0.0000016282. Subsequently, its price dropped below the 9 EMA and 20 EMA lines on the 4-hour chart, where it remains at the time of writing.

Disclaimer: Do Your Own Research

Please note that the views, opinions, and information provided in this price analysis are presented in good faith. However, readers are strongly encouraged to conduct their own research and due diligence. Any actions or decisions made based on this analysis are solely at the reader’s own risk. Coin Edition and its affiliates cannot be held liable for any direct or indirect damage or loss resulting from such actions or decisions.

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