BTC Price Analysis: Technicals by Shayan

The Daily Chart

Despite moving towards its all-time high of $111K, Bitcoin exhibits declining bullish momentum. Factors such as consistent profit-taking and enhanced selling pressure at this psychological level have resulted in muted volatility in recent sessions. Additionally, on-chain indicators expose distribution among long-term holders, adding more supply and fortifying resistance near the ATH.

Nevertheless, the ongoing consolidation phase below $111K can act as a springboard for a breakout, given there is fresh demand in the market. A bullish breakout might trigger a short-squeeze, pushing the price towards the $120K mark and potentially setting a new record high.

The 4-Hour Chart

On a smaller timeframe, Bitcoin made an attempt to climb but faced resistance at the upper boundary of a descending wedge around $108,000. This has led to a low-volatility sideways structure, with the pattern’s upper trendline playing the role of strong resistance.

If the price fails to reclaim this level, another rejection is probable, possibly pulling Bitcoin back towards the $100K support at the wedge’s lower boundary. On the flip side, a significant breakout above $108K could spur a fresh bullish wave, aiming for the $111K ATH again. Although momentum seems slow, market structure and pattern formation suggest Bitcoin is gearing up for a breakout, with only the timing left uncertain.

On-chain Analysis by Shayan

Chart data gives vital insights into the volume of Bitcoin’s supply being spent or reactivated by different age bands. Amid the current static price action between $100K and $111K, many are curious as to why the market’s momentum is fading. This data might provide a lucid explanation.

Long-term holders, those who have kept their coins for over three years, seem to be the main contributors to the ongoing selling pressure. These investors are cashing in on substantial profits, often many times their initial cost basis, thereby placing consistent resistance on the price’s ability to climb further.

As long as this profit-taking wave persists, upward momentum is likely to remain restricted. However, if these holders slow their selling and fresh demand enters the market, Bitcoin could burst above the $111K barrier, triggering a potential short-squeeze and paving the way for further price discovery.

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