Technical Analysis – The Daily Chart

In the daily chart, Bitcoin has managed to crack the $100K resistance barrier and is currently floating around the $103K mark. This surge followed a successful reclaiming of both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, as well as a retest of the ascending trendline respected over the preceding months.

Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is solidly in the overbought zone, currently exceeding 75. This suggests a robust bullish momentum, although it also signals a potential short-term slowdown. Should the breakout hold, the next apparent resistance level is situated around $108K, with the $99K area now serving as a new significant support.

Technical Analysis – The 4-Hour Chart

Delving into the 4-hour chart, the price has broken out from a rising wedge that had been developing for over a week. The price initially breached the $97K–$98K range, before rocketing towards the $103K mark. Momentum indicators like RSI confirm strength, but early indicators of short-term fatigue are emerging. This suggests a possible retest of the breakout zone around $100K or $98K before progression. However, the overall structure still suggests more upside, unless the $96K–$97K area fails to hold.

Onchain Analysis – Exchange Reserve

From an on-chain viewpoint, exchange reserves are consistently dropping, hitting a new multi-year low. This continuing decline strengthens the long-term bullish argument: lower BTC availability on exchanges generally indicates accumulation behavior and diminished selling pressure.

This also hints that long-term holders are not in a hurry to part with their coins, even at these elevated levels. The macro trend of shrinking exchange balances backs the current breakout and instills confidence in the rally’s sustainability, even if short-term pullbacks occur.

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