XRP’s Battle with the 33-Month EMA

According to crypto analyst Egrag Crypto, XRP’s recent dip below the 33-month exponential moving average (EMA) doesn’t necessarily spell the end of its current cycle. However, maintaining a monthly close above $1.60 is vital to avert a macro bearish confirmation.

As of now, XRP is trading near $1.65, after a volatile session that forced traders to reconsider its long-term structure. Egrag Crypto emphasizes that a monthly close below the 33 EMA could trigger a macro bearish transition, a pattern observed in past cycles.

Potential Price Scenarios for XRP

Historically, XRP has shown resilience, bouncing back from similar conditions without a confirmed bull market. Egrag Crypto presents two potential scenarios: First, a move reminiscent of 2021, where XRP could rally by 340%, targeting the $7 mark.

Second, a scenario akin to the 2017 cycle, suggesting a massive 1,600% surge, aligning with a $27 target. In both cases, these rallies emerged from oversold conditions, not from a solid bullish macro environment.

Critical Support and Resistance Levels

While a breakdown below $1.60 might incite panic and reinforce bear market fears, such conditions have historically led to upward volatility. Traders should closely monitor these levels to anticipate potential market movements.

Expert analysis and historical market data provide a comprehensive understanding of XRP’s price dynamics. Staying informed and vigilant can guide traders in navigating this uncertain period.

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Technical Analysis of Bitcoin’s Daily Chart

On the daily chart, Bitcoin has executed a robust rebound from a crucial order block, also known as a demand zone. This move highlights that buyers are maintaining control at this critical juncture. The rebound was further validated by a breakout above the 100-day moving average, a level that previously posed dynamic resistance.

This development signals a resurgence in bullish momentum. However, traders should remain vigilant for a potential short-term pullback to the broken moving average, near the $112K mark. Should this retest hold, Bitcoin’s broader structure would continue to support its upward trajectory toward the all-time high resistance zone.

BTC’s 4-Hour Chart Insights

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has shown a definitive Change of Character (CHOCH), marking a transition from a bearish to a bullish structure. After surpassing previous swing highs, Bitcoin is currently consolidating just below the $117K resistance level.

The green decision point zone at $112K remains a crucial level to watch. A retracement into this order block would not jeopardize the bullish outlook; rather, it could serve as a healthy correction before the next upward movement. Remaining above this base sustains the path toward retesting all-time highs.

On-Chain Analysis: Miner Behavior

Examining on-chain data reveals that the transfer of Bitcoin from miner wallets to exchanges often indicates supply-side pressure. Peaks in miner-to-exchange flows have historically aligned with market tops, as increased distribution heightens selling pressure.

Currently, the 30-day moving average of miner-to-exchange flow has decreased to its lowest levels recently. This decline suggests that miners are reducing their distribution and possibly accumulating Bitcoin instead. This trend aligns with Bitcoin’s recent surge above $115K, reinforcing bullish sentiment from miners.

In summary, the combination of a technical structure shift and miner accumulation paints a positive outlook. As long as the $112K support level holds, Bitcoin appears well-positioned to maintain momentum and potentially challenge its all-time highs once again.

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Understanding the Bitcoin Macro Correction

According to Casitrades, Bitcoin’s recent price movement has encountered the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level near $116,000. This is a pivotal point in its recovery. Although Bitcoin has experienced a sudden surge, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hasn’t yet indicated the exhaustion typical of a major peak. This might imply that the bullish momentum still has some steam, allowing buyers to push prices even higher.

The analyst highlights $118,000 as a vital level to watch. This figure aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and the 1.236 C-wave target within the developing Wave 2 structure. Should Bitcoin face a sharp rejection here, it might signal the end of the current bull run, reinforcing the idea of a Bitcoin Macro Correction.

Potential Scenarios for Bitcoin Price

Casitrades suggests that if Bitcoin forms a peak at this confluence point, it may indicate that the cryptocurrency isn’t ready for new all-time highs and might retrace. Downside targets could see Bitcoin slipping from its current above $115,800 levels to somewhere between $110,000 and $106,000.

However, if Bitcoin’s momentum persists, it might break into the $120,000 – $122,000 range. This area serves as the ultimate test for the macro correction hypothesis. It corresponds with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement, making it a robust resistance zone.

Final Test: The $122,000 Level

The $122,000 mark represents a critical juncture for Bitcoin’s macro correction narrative. If Bitcoin’s RSI shows signs of fatigue and a strong rejection occurs, it could trigger a significant downturn, affirming that the recent rally was merely corrective. Such a correction might reset Bitcoin’s structure, potentially paving the way for more stable long-term growth.

Conversely, should Bitcoin break through the $122,000 threshold, it could invalidate the current macro correction scenario, propelling the price to new highs between $122,000 – $124,000, as noted by Casitrades.

In conclusion, the coming movements in Bitcoin’s price will reveal whether the current trends will continue or if a macro correction is imminent. Investors are keenly observing these levels to strategize their next moves.

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Bitcoin Supercycle: Price Analysis and Predictions

The Bitcoin supercycle is becoming a focal point for analysts, with recent chart patterns indicating significant price movements. Specifically, Bitcoin has formed two inverse head-and-shoulders (IH&S) patterns on the weekly chart. This bullish formation consists of three troughs, with a lower “head” flanked by two higher “shoulders.” A breakout above the neckline typically signals a strong upward trend.

Currently, Bitcoin’s weekly chart showcases two IH&S patterns. The first, a smaller pattern, emerged in November 2024 and broke above the neckline in July at $112,000. This breakout suggests a potential rise to $170,000, marking a 49% increase from current levels.

A Larger Pattern and Potential Highs

The second, more extensive IH&S pattern has been in formation since March 2021, projecting even higher targets. Bitcoin surpassed the neckline at approximately $73,000 during a post-US election rally, reaching over $100,000. After retesting $74,400 in April, Bitcoin confirmed the breakout, hinting at a continued uptrend towards $360,000, a 217% increase from current prices.

Analyst Merlijn The Trader highlights this development, stating, “The Bitcoin inverse head and shoulders of dreams has now doubled. This isn’t a pattern. It’s the supercycle ignition.”

Institutional Demand and Bitcoin’s Growth

The potential for a Bitcoin supercycle is bolstered by renewed interest from institutional investors. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen significant inflows, with $1.15 billion recorded over three consecutive days. Wednesday alone accounted for $752 million, the highest since mid-July, indicating a resurgence in institutional demand.

According to market intelligence firm Santiment, “Money is moving back into Bitcoin ETFs at a rapid rate as retailers impatiently drop out of crypto. Previous crypto rallies were boosted by inflow spikes like this.”

As always, investing in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency involves risks, and investors are advised to conduct thorough research before making decisions.

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Ethereum Price Analysis: Challenges and Opportunities

Ethereum (ETH) has been on a rollercoaster ride recently, facing rejection at $4,800, which led to a significant pullback. This past fortnight saw ETH closing the week with a 7% loss. Despite this, Ethereum maintains strong support above $4,000, a crucial level after the recent breakout.

Investors remain optimistic, anticipating a challenge to break the all-time high (ATH) of $4,868. Should this occur, ETH might enter a price discovery phase, with potential targets of 6k and 7k.

Ripple’s (XRP) Bearish Momentum

Ripple lost its foothold at the $3 mark, resulting in a bearish close with a 9% loss. Current support lies at $2.7, a significant level to watch. A further dip could see XRP testing $2.5 unless buyers return to bolster the price.

The 3-day MACD suggests a continuing downtrend, urging caution among investors as lower price levels seem probable in the near term.

Cardano’s (ADA) Upward Potential

Cardano faced resistance above $1, slipping below $0.90. Despite the market’s bearish tone, ADA has a better trajectory than XRP, supported by a bullish 3-day MACD and increasing buy volume. The key support at $0.77 could be the foundation for a future rally toward $1.3.

Binance Coin (BNB) Sees New Highs

Binance Coin reached an ATH at $883, though it has retreated to $830 support. This level has withstood multiple tests, but continued pressure might signal bearish dominance. BNB needs to sustain above $800 to maintain its bullish outlook.

Hype (HYPE) Faces Downward Pressure

HYPE’s struggle above $50 continues, with recent attempts thwarted by seller resistance. The price closed with a 17% loss, nearing $41. A potential double top formation suggests further declines toward $30 if support at $37 fails.

In summary, while Ethereum and Cardano show promise, Ripple and HYPE face significant challenges. Binance Coin remains bullish, contingent on holding crucial support levels.

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Technical Analysis: Bitcoin’s Current Trajectory

On the daily chart, Bitcoin has maintained a robust bullish pattern, consistently achieving higher highs and higher lows within a defined ascending price channel. This pattern was reinforced as Bitcoin rebounded sharply from the channel’s lower boundary around $112K, sparking a rally towards the critical $123K resistance level.

This resistance zone, identified as a key supply area, is where market participants might engage in profit-taking, potentially leading to a brief consolidation. However, clearing this barrier could set Bitcoin on a path toward the highly anticipated $130K mark.

Short-Term Movements and Potential Retracements

In the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin’s recent surge past the $112K flag support confirmed a bullish continuation pattern. As BTC now tests the all-time high zone, a struggle between sellers and buyers has ensued. A failure to break above $123K might trigger a corrective move, revisiting the $116K–$117K region, which aligns with the 0.5 to 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels.

Conversely, achieving a breakout above the $123K level could initiate a short-squeeze, accelerating Bitcoin’s ascent toward new resistance levels and potentially reaching the $130K target.

On-Chain Analysis: Retail vs. Whale Activity

Recent on-chain data indicates a shift in market dynamics, with retail traders gaining a more prominent role. The metric measuring average order size in BTC futures markets shows a transition from whale-dominated activities to increased retail participation. This trend is marked by the emergence of red clusters, suggesting smaller trades are now more prevalent.

Previously, whale dominance was evident near market peaks, often leading to distribution phases. However, since late Q2 2025, there has been a noticeable decline in whale activity, indicating that large-scale investors might be holding positions or awaiting better entry points. This situation positions Bitcoin for a potential bullish breakout, barring any significant whale-induced sell-off.

Conclusion: As Bitcoin inches closer to its all-time high, market participants are keenly observing the resistance at $123K. Breaking through this level could propel BTC to $130K, fueled by both technical and on-chain momentum. Yet, vigilance remains essential, as market dynamics can shift swiftly with renewed whale activity.

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Ethereum’s Resilience and Market Dynamics

In a detailed analysis, Corvinus shared that a hidden bullish force is building momentum for Ethereum. Unlike Bitcoin, which has shown lower lows, ETH has maintained higher lows, suggesting inherent strength.

Corvinus pointed out a reduction in bearish volume, indicating that weaker players are leaving the market. He highlighted a key indicator, the Hidden Bullish Divergence RSI, which showed a lower low while Ethereum’s price achieved a higher low—classic signs of a robust continuation pattern.

Price Support and Future Projections

Despite being oversold, Ethereum’s price has remained above the July support level after two retests. Corvinus emphasized that this consolidation hints at a potential breakout to the upside rather than a reversal.

The analyst predicts that the current Ethereum price dip is not an end but rather a calm before an impending surge. He remains optimistic about Ethereum reaching between $7,000 and $8,000 in this cycle, indicating that the question is not if, but when this breakout will occur.

Potential Retest of Key Levels

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes also weighed in, suggesting that Ethereum might test the psychological $3,000 level before embarking on its next upward journey. Hayes attributed this potential dip to broader economic factors, such as the Trump tariffs and weak US job data.

He further noted the absence of rapid credit creation in major economies, potentially stalling liquidity influx needed to fuel Ethereum’s rally. Despite these challenges, the Ethereum market holds promise for those patient enough to wait for the breakout.

Currently, Ethereum trades slightly under $3,500, experiencing a near 5% drop in the past 24 hours, as per CoinMarketCap data.

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Following our ongoing ‘We Asked…’ series of crypto-focused inquiries, this time our curiosity was inclined towards the potential XRP holds in this cycle, especially considering it has already shattered its prior all-time high of $3.4 from January 2018, reaching over $3.6 last week.

The AI solutions offered a variety of price forecasts, from “realistic” to “ambitious”. Perplexity highlighted that most crypto analysts predict the asset will peak between $5 and $10. The chatbot, largely basing its projections on technical analysis, primarily confirmed its target, positioning it at $6 to $8, even potentially reaching $10 under favorable conditions.

Gemini’s moderate estimates suggest a peak of $6, whereas its “bullish but achievable targets” align with those proposed by Perplexity. Grok and ChatGPT proposed a less optimistic outlook for XRP’s potential in this cycle, projecting $5.50 to $7 as the “moderate” scenarios. However, in their aggressive approach, they both suggested the asset could exceed $10 and target $15.

Despite minor variations in their price ranges, the AI solutions collectively identified key factors that could propel XRP to these highs. They unanimously agreed that a Ripple ETF would significantly boost the underlying asset, mirroring recent developments with BTC and ETH. With a high probability of such a financial product gaining approval by year-end, a capital shift from Bitcoin to altcoins would further aid XRP, the second-largest altcoin.

Additionally, they pointed out that the incorporation of XRP Ledger in corporate/central bank settlement pilots and the ISO 20022 update are likely to benefit Ripple’s token. However, they emphasized the volatile nature of the market and urged caution, reminding that these are predictions, not guarantees.

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Ethereum Price Analysis: Technical Overview by Shayan

The Daily Chart

Ethereum’s upward momentum continues unabated, building on the bullish surge that pushed it beyond the significant $3K psychological barrier. This breakout represents a forceful move by the buyers, who have remained dominant since the asset triumphed over the crucial $2.8K level.

The market is now nearing a significant supply zone between $3.2K and $3.4K, historically linked to increased selling pressure. If Ethereum successfully navigates this order block, it could indicate further upward potential, with price targets at $3.7K and possibly $4.1K. Given the current rally, Ethereum seems to be preparing for a renewed push towards its all-time highs, though this would require confirmation from future price action developments.

The 4-Hour Chart

Even in the shorter timeframe, Ethereum’s robustness is conspicuous. The chart showcases a sequence of vigorous bullish candles, signalling an upsurge in buying activity. However, Ethereum has now hit a notable resistance zone around $3.5K. If the cryptocurrency cannot break the $3.5K barrier decisively, it may continue to oscillate within the $3K-$3.5K range in the short term. A breakout beyond this range could rekindle bullish momentum, while a rejection may extend the consolidation phase.

Onchain Analysis by Shayan

This chart illustrates the Binance Liquidation Heatmap, showing areas where major liquidation events are most likely to happen. These zones often act as liquidity targets, attracting price action due to the dense accumulation of leveraged positions.

Currently, the route toward the $4K region seems relatively free of significant liquidity pools. However, a substantial liquidation cluster lies just beyond the $4K mark, suggesting a high likelihood that Ethereum’s price could gravitate towards this crucial zone. If this prediction proves accurate, Ethereum could extend its bullish surge to this level, potentially setting the groundwork for a new all-time high. Nevertheless, brief periods of corrective consolidation are likely as part of the journey to that milestone.

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In a post on July 12, Martinez presented an optimistic technical forecast for the Solana market. He suggested that the altcoin is at a crucial price crossroads. The analyst identified a massive cup-and-handle pattern from the weekly chart, which often foreshadows a significant price surge. However, SOL must overcome a pivotal price resistance at the $170 mark.

The cup-and-handle pattern is a bullish chart configuration that signals the potential for significant price ascents. The pattern somewhat resembles a teacup, commencing with a bearish market, followed by a price recuperation of equal magnitude, as seen between the start of 2022 and 2025.

During this timeframe, Solana experienced a harsh drop from approximately $250 to a cycle low of $9.88 before gradually climbing back to a similar peak, forming the cup pattern. Following this, SOL underwent considerable price adjustments and rebounds, eventually forming a descending price pattern, symbolizing the handle of this formation.

Crucially, the cup-and-handle pattern only translates into a price surge after a decisive price breakout above the formation’s neckline. With its recent gains, Solana is nearing this neckline at the $170 price level. Martinez suggests that a successful weekly close above this resistance will confirm Solana’s bullish potential, inciting substantial market demand and setting the stage for higher price levels.

According to Fibonacci retracement and extension levels on the chart, the initial price target post-breakout is set at $295, which matches the current all-time high. However, the historical significance of breakouts from cup-and-handle patterns indicates higher price targets, potentially reaching $787, $1,314, and even a staggering $2,744.

However, if Solana faces rejection at the $170 mark, it may be forced to seek lower support levels around $135 or even $100, a significant demand zone in the past.

At the time of writing, Solana is trading at $162.58, reflecting the above-mentioned 0.58% decline. The asset’s daily trading volume has also dropped by 38.77% to $3.72 billion.

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