What Drives the XRP Network Surge?

The total volume of payments, the number of transactions between accounts, and overall transaction throughput have all risen considerably. Despite these positive metrics, the price chart of XRP presents a less optimistic scenario, posing a potential risk for investors moving forward.

Network throughput has indeed improved, with daily payments often hitting the upper end of their multi-month range. Spikes in payment volume indicate a growing value movement across the network. However, this momentum does not seem to mirror the market structure, as XRP price remains caught in a pronounced downward channel, continually failing to surpass declining resistance levels.

Persistent Bearish Indicators

Indicators such as the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages all slope downward, highlighting a persistent bearish environment. Although there was a brief anomaly with a vertical liquidation wick in October, the price action quickly reverted to the broader downtrend, underscoring the structural weakness rather than disproving it.

This is where the reality of the situation and the narrative of a surge meet head-on. Increasing network usage is often an early sign of strength for emerging ecosystems. However, in XRP’s case, consistent growth in transaction numbers has not translated into heightened market demand.

Understanding the Discrepancy

A significant portion of XRP’s activity is driven by automated processes, arbitrage opportunities, and institutional routing rather than speculative accumulation. As such, even in periods of poor price performance, the ledger continues to process high volumes.

While transaction growth can signify an ecosystem’s robustness, for XRP, it does not inherently equate to price appreciation. Thus, despite the XRP network surge, investors must remain cautious, as the price might not follow the trajectory of on-chain activity.

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Although many in the crypto sphere are optimistic for a market rebound, Coin Bureau’s recent findings suggest that the on-chain data might tell a different story.

Analysts See Unlikely $3 XRP Target Amidst Decreasing Network Activity

In a post published on June 20, Coin Bureau pointed out that XRP’s path to reclaiming its bullish stance seems arduous due to dwindling network engagement. Specifically, Glassnode data reveals a significant drop in new wallet creations on the XRP Ledger, from over 30,000 daily in January to currently under 5,000 daily.

Interestingly, Glassnode charts show a strong correlation between price movements and network growth. The late Q4 2024 spike in wallet creation coincided with a sharp price rise, pushing XRP to a high of $2.71. However, as the influx of new users began to wane, XRP’s price followed suit, entering a period of consolidation and gradual decline.

In addition to these observations, Coin Bureau also underscores the dramatic fall in XRP’s daily active addresses, from 557,000 to just 34,000, hinting at dwindling retail investor interest in the XRP ecosystem. According to market analysts, this sharp decrease in network engagement suggests that XRP might not have enough market demand to support a bullish climb towards the crucial $3 resistance zone.

However, another theory proposes that the previous network activity highs seen in Q4 2024 and January were associated with widespread market euphoria following the US general elections. This theory argues that the decline is a part of social trends and is overstated by Coin Bureau.

XRP’s Price Outlook

At the moment, XRP is trading at $2.13, reflecting a 1.33% decrease in the past day. Meanwhile, the asset’s daily trading volume has risen by 22.29%, reaching a value of $2.25 billion. Based on data from prediction site CoinCodex, investors remain largely bearish towards XRP, although the Fear & Greed Index is neutral at 54.

CoinCodex analysts anticipate that XRP will remain in consolidation in the short term, with a projected value of $2.12 in a month. However, they predict a slow but steady long-term bullish recovery, with estimates of $2.45 in three months and $3.03 in six months.

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Story Protocol’s volume spike is far from subtle, drawing the attention of traders and market observers around the globe. In just 24 hours, trading activity has escalated from being fairly quiet to significantly high. This type of sudden increase usually points to new market entrants, large-scale transactions, or whale activity. However, despite the uptick in volume, why is the IP price descending?

Here’s the intriguing part: as the trading volume of Story increases, its price is, in fact, on a downward trajectory. This contradictory behavior could potentially signal a distribution phase, where large holders are selling amidst growing demand, or a sell-off following a recent price pump. Other possibilities include profit-taking by early investors, token unlock events, or impending milestones. High volume coupled with a declining price usually indicates bearish pressure, raising questions about the future direction of the IP price rally.

Presently, the price momentum remains largely bearish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating an oversold market. This confirms the bearish dominance and could result in price consolidation within the lower range of the descending parallel channel. If this trend continues, the price could move towards the channel’s support at around $2, potentially triggering a rebound. If not, Story’s price may hit new lows.

The recent volume surge coupled with a price dip sends mixed signals to traders. It shows strong market interest on one side, while possibly indicating smart money exiting as retail interest grows. Consequently, the Story IPUSDT price is expected to squeeze out all short positions and potentially trigger a robust upswing.

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Trading Signals from Triangle Pattern

Market analysts have identified a symmetrical triangle pattern, with the price being squeezed between approximately $0.54 and $0.74. Such a squeeze suggests that the next significant move could be substantial. If Pi were to rise above $0.74 and maintain that level, it might trigger a race back to, or even beyond, the $1 mark.

$0.40 Support Level: A Critical Juncture

The $0.40 area has been acting as a cushion for Pi for several weeks, causing a price bounce each time it hits that low. A definite close below $0.40 might invite deeper losses. Conversely, holding steady at this point could ignite a much-needed rally.

Impending Pi2Day and Possible Triggers

With Pi2Day nearing on June 28, anticipation is mounting. Any positive development—be it smoother upgrades, a calming Federal decision, or a significant partnership announcement, could provide the necessary spark for Pi. Early adopters are hoping that this “Day of High Expectation” transforms the current frustration into a Fear of Missing Out (FOMO).

The Pressure on Pi Explained

An influx of newly minted coins has surpassed the actual demand, and due to a lack of clear use cases, many initial investors have liquidated their holdings. This oversupply is mainly responsible for Pi’s recent downturn. Until the mining pace slows down and practical uses come into play, price fluctuations are likely to be skewed.

The Future Outlook

If Pi can effectively control the supply and demonstrate tangible utility, a return to $1 is still a possibility. However, the network will require more than just optimism—it necessitates real-world adoption and patient investors. At present, all attention is focused on the triangle squeeze and the outcomes of Pi2Day to determine whether Pi’s next major move is a climb or a descent.

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Renowned crypto analyst Dark Defender has taken to X (the platform formerly known as Twitter) to suggest that the ongoing price consolidation of XRP could soon end. His analysis, based on the monthly price charts, indicates that this could be the last phase of consolidation before XRP experiences a price breakout.

According to Dark Defender’s 5-Wave analysis, the end of the consolidation phase could trigger a bullish trend. The first wave, termed the ‘Impulsive Wave 1’, is expected to push the price to $3, followed by a bearish second wave that could drop the price back to $2.2. However, the third wave could usher in a new all-time high, with a price target of $5.

The fourth wave, another bearish phase, could result in a 30% crash, pulling the price back to around $3. Yet, this could set the stage for the final and most powerful fifth wave. If the 5-Wave analysis holds true, the fifth wave could propel XRP to a new all-time high, with the price skyrocketing over 100% from the fourth wave’s low point, potentially surpassing $6.

Dark Defender’s major price targets during these wave actions are $3.75 and $5.85. The key support and resistance points to watch are $1.88, $1.63 (support) and $2.22, $2.30 (resistance).

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Bitcoin’s price has dipped under $85,000, and it is also trading below the 100 hourly Simple Moving Average (SMA). A bearish trend line with resistance at $84,800 is emerging on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair, based on data sourced from Kraken.

Despite the current trend, the BTC/USD pair could witness a surge if it manages to breach the $85,000 resistance level. After struggling near the $86,500 mark, Bitcoin’s price began to plummet, falling below the $85,500 and $85,000 thresholds, entering a bearish zone in the short term.

The price dipped as low as $83,171 before making some recovery. There was a rise above the $83,800 level and the price surpassed the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward move from the $86,401 high to the $83,171 low.

Immediate resistance on the upside is around the $84,750 mark, with a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $84,800. The first significant resistance is around the $85,150 mark or the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the drop from the $86,401 high to the $83,171 low, with the next significant resistance potentially at $85,500.

If Bitcoin manages to close above the $85,500 resistance, it could trigger a further rise in price. In such a scenario, the price could reach the $85,800 resistance level, and further gains could push the price towards the $86,400 mark.

However, if Bitcoin fails to break the $85,000 resistance zone, it could trigger another round of decline. Immediate support on the downside lies near the $83,900 mark, with major support near the $83,200 mark. Further losses could push the price towards the $81,500 support level in the near term, with the primary support resting at $80,800.

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TradingView analyst TehThomas has noted that XRP price is currently navigating an Ascending Channel, which could pave the way for a potential 20% upward shift. In the 4-hour timeframe, XRP has consistently respected this Ascending Channel, generating higher highs and higher lows—an important signal of an ongoing rally.

Particularly noteworthy is the Golden Pocket’s presence in XRP’s price action. This Fibonacci retracement area is commonly used to pinpoint potential support and resistance levels. It signifies an abrupt reversal in a cryptocurrency’s trend, heralding a potential aggressive rally.

TehThomas has suggested that XRP’s current Golden Pocket coincides with an imbalance zone, a sector of unfulfilled liquidity that prices generally revisit before resuming movement. The Golden Pocket for XRP is located between the 0.618 – 0.65 Fibonacci retracement level—a zone where the price often finds robust support before sustaining the trend.

As long as the XRP price maintains above the pivotal Fibonacci retracement level, which also serves as a critical resistance, the crypto’s bullish structure is likely to persist. If the bullish momentum continues, TehThomas anticipates XRP price to rally to a target between $2.8 to $2.9—a 29% price rise from XRP’s current price of $2.2.

However, TehThomas warns of short-term resistance on the 1-hour timeframe, which could trigger a significant pullback before the next upward leg. A confirmed breakout from the 1-hour imbalance timeframe could bolster XRP’s bullish momentum, aiding its projected move towards the Ascending Channel’s upper levels. But a failure could disrupt this bullish structure, causing a deeper correction toward lower support levels.

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Santiment, a leading on-chain analytics firm, recently shared a post discussing these two metrics. The “Supply Distribution” metric reflects the quantity of tokens held by investors in a specific group. Investors are classified into cohorts depending on their XRP holdings. For instance, the 1 to 10 coins group includes investors owning between 1 and 10 XRP.

Of particular interest are the ‘whale’ entities, defined by a cutoff of 1 million coins, with no upper limit. At the current exchange rate, this translates to roughly $2.5 million, indicating only large investors fit within this group.

The analytics firm shared a chart showing the trend in Supply Distribution for these key XRP investors. As seen in the graph, XRP whales have consistently increased their Supply Distribution over the past year, indicating continued accumulation despite price fluctuations. In the last few months alone, this cohort added another 2.82 billion coins to their holdings, a 6.5% supply increase.

Consequently, holders of 1 million+ coins now possess 46.4 billion tokens of the cryptocurrency. This sustained long-term accumulation by this group is a bullish signal for the asset’s price.

Santiment also shared data on the second relevant metric – Active Addresses. This indicator tracks the total number of XRP addresses participating in transaction activity on the blockchain daily. As the graph shows, the number of Active Addresses has seen a significant rise in March, reaching levels approximately six times higher than those in January and February.

This high activity level indicates elevated interest in the asset, leading to more users engaging with the network. It’s important to note that this metric represents the activity level of retail holders, who outnumber the large investors or ‘whales’.

Given these positive developments on the network, it will be interesting to watch whether XRP’s latest recovery rally will hold. At the time of writing, XRP is trading around $2.51, reflecting an over 8% increase in the past seven days.

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Bitcoin has initiated a promising recovery trend, rising above the $80,000 mark. The cryptocurrency is currently trading above $82,000, with the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing solid support. A bullish trend line is also being established with support pegged at $82,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair, according to data from Kraken.

If Bitcoin manages to clear the $84,000 and $85,000 resistance levels, we can expect another increase. The Bitcoin price stayed robust above $78,000, establishing a foundation before initiating a recovery trend above the $80,000 resistance level.

Bulls managed to push Bitcoin past the $82,000 resistance level, moving beyond the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the $91,060 swing high to the $76,820 low. However, the bears are currently active around the $84,000 resistance zone.

Bitcoin is now trading above $82,000 and the 100-hourly SMA. There’s also a bullish trend line with support at $82,000 on the BTC/USD hourly chart. Immediate resistance lies around the $84,000 level, and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the $91,060 swing high to the $76,820 low. The first significant resistance is around $85,000, with the next key resistance possibly at $85,650.

If Bitcoin manages to close above the $85,650 resistance level, it could trigger further price increase. In such a scenario, Bitcoin could test the $86,500 resistance level. Additional gains could push the price towards the $88,000 or even $96,200 level.

On the other hand, if Bitcoin fails to surpass the $84,000 resistance zone, a fresh decline could be on the cards. Immediate support on the downside is near the $82,000 level and the trendline. The first major support is around the $81,200 level, with the $80,000 zone as the next support level. Any further losses could push the price towards the $78,000 support in the short term, with the main support situated at $76,500.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining momentum in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $82,000, followed by $81,200.

Major Resistance Levels – $84,000 and $85,000.

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