“The current influx of public organizations embracing crypto treasury operations ushers in a new phase of financial engineering. This is akin to the Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs) in the ’80s or Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the ’90s,” Chung stated in a recent report. He further noted that this trend is primarily misunderstood outside the crypto industry and is often overly simplified as a mere ‘leveraged ETF trade.’

Chung elaborated that these companies are raising funds, or attempting to do so, to buy bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies in order to maximize shareholder value. This model, inspired by Strategy’s playbook, has gained traction, particularly in the U.S., which is favored by its deep capital markets and experienced institutional investors.

The companies typically restructure themselves as former operating firms, SPACs, or shell companies, repurposed to serve as conduits for crypto accumulation. They choose funding methods like private investment in public equity, at-the-market offerings, convertible bonds, or perpetual preferred shares, which are suited to their maturity stage and investor base, with the goal of efficiently leveraging crypto market volatility without pledging assets as collateral.

The quick rise of crypto treasury companies has raised alarms about their leveraged positions possibly causing a new wave of forced liquidations if crypto markets turn bearish. Chung pointed out two main risks: collateral liquidation risk and activist-driven liquidation. However, he argued that these risks are more contained than those that triggered past crypto cycle collapses.

The second concern is that crypto treasury companies trading at a discount to their net asset value could become targets for activist investors aiming to force asset sales. However, Chung explained that in reality, activists usually prefer less aggressive tactics, with liquidation used only as a last resort due to its cost and complexity.

Currently, 228 companies have adopted some form of crypto treasury strategy for bitcoin alone. High-profile names like Twenty One, Nakamoto, Trump Media, and GameStop have recently joined the ranks, following the bitcoin acquisition model pioneered by Strategy and its co-founder, Michael Saylor.

However, managing these strategies is a complex task. Newer, less experienced entrants may stumble in a downturn, especially if they mismanage liquidity or overextend their balance sheets. But this doesn’t necessarily make the crypto market riskier overall, Chung said, as crypto treasury companies reflect the same liquidity challenges faced by large retail holders.

The post Analyst Highlights Nuanced Risks of Emerging Corporate Crypto Treasury Bubble appeared first on Crypto Market Insights: Dive In with CryptoUpdate.io.

Bitcoin Vector, a market pulse aggregator supported by Swissblock, indicates that the fall is not solely macro-driven but also a result of seasonal weakness and a decrease in onchain network growth. This points to a reduction in spot demand. The past day saw over $434 million in BTC futures being liquidated, highlighting that the current move is largely driven by leverage with traders choosing safety over new exposure.

Despite the dip, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index – a metric that compares BTC prices on Coinbase and Binance – has mostly been positive throughout June, indicating consistent spot demand from US investors. However, this demand has had a limited effect on the price due to overall market caution.

Additional pressure came from profit-taking activities among “mid-cycle holders” (6–12 months), who realized $904 million in profits on Monday, Glassnode reports. This group made up 83% of the total realized gains, a significant shift from the longer-term holders who had previously led profit realization. This shift implies a change in market dynamics, with more reactive participants securing gains during recent highs.

Nevertheless, long-term investor behavior still gives an optimistic outlook. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. observed that long-term holders (LTHs) are still holding back from large-scale spending, a pattern that has historically been bullish. With a healthy MVRV Z-score indicating that BTC remains fundamentally undervalued, and positive Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) momentum suggesting selective profit-taking rather than panic, similar scenarios in the past have led to 18–25% rallies within 6–8 weeks. This indicates a potential $130,000 price target by the end of Q2.

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin appears to be nearing a short-term bottom between $102,000 and $104,000, where a dense liquidity pocket and a historical order block intersect. The Bollinger Bands are also indicating an imminent volatility spike, with the middle band acting as dynamic resistance near the $106,000 mark. A successful reclaim and close above $106,748 could validate a bullish reversal toward $112,000. However, a clean break below $100,000 could nullify this setup and target $98,000.

Data from Alphractal also identifies $98,300 as the key support level where Short-Term Holders (STHs) remain profitable. If this threshold is breached, it could lead to a deeper correction. As Alphractal noted, the market can still be considered bullish as long as Bitcoin stays above the STH Realized Price. A significant drop below the $98K level could trigger a more substantial downfall.

Please note that this article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, making it essential for readers to conduct their own research before making a decision.

The post Bitcoin Predicted to Surge 25% Post-Correction, History Might Repeat Itself appeared first on Crypto Market Insights: Dive In with CryptoUpdate.io.

Reports suggest that the current price pattern from $61k to $104k closely mirrors the 2020-2021 “distribution zone”, when Bitcoin fluctuated between $31,000 and $64,000 for nearly a year. The subsequent slide was swift and brutal: Bitcoin soared to a peak of about $69,000 in November 2021, then plummeted to a low of $15,600 by November 2022. This represented a nearly 78% drop.

Michaël van de Poppe’s analysis revealed that Bitcoin’s attempts to maintain a level above $106k this month were unsuccessful. His chart displayed a swift rejection at this threshold, leading to long-side liquidations. After failing to push higher, the price retreated to the $104k – $105k zone. Each failed breakout is perceived as a red flag of distribution by traders.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt expressed that strong market fundamentals often appear most promising just before a market peak. He highlighted that if Bitcoin’s current trend results in a similar 78% decline from the $105k band, it could potentially drop to around $23,600. His calculation reflects the previous cycle’s fall from approximately $69k to $15,500.

Despite the technical obstacles, some believe that the floor is more solid now due to reports of spot ETFs and increasing purchases by institutions and governments. Bitcoin has been attracting significant investment flows like never before. However, the failure to breach the $105k barrier has raised concerns among some analysts.

Trader Tardigrade pointed out that Bitcoin’s 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages recently formed a golden cross. This pattern has led to gains of 50%, 125%, and 65% in past cycles. It suggests a potential rally if buyers step in at the current levels.

It’s clear that Bitcoin is caught between caution and optimism. Pattern observers warn of a significant fall if support breaks, while influential players could help prevent a steep decline and trigger a rally. Investors should closely watch the $104k – $105k range for signs of either weakness or strength. A drop below could pave the way for a fall towards $23,500, while a clean break above $106k may indicate the start of the next upward trend. Regardless, volatility is expected to remain high, emphasizing the importance of risk management.

Featured image from Imagen, chart from TradingView, CryptoNewsBTC

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In January, Intesa Sanpaolo, the largest bank in Italy, embarked on what its CEO Carlo Messina called “an experiment”, purchasing digital assets worth 1 million euros in Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency. The bank had established a proprietary trading desk for digital currencies in 2023, and began facilitating spot trades with crypto assets last year.

However, Panetta expressed worries that those who hold crypto assets may not completely comprehend their nature, potentially mistaking them for conventional banking products. He warned that such misconceptions could lead to negative impacts on the trust in the credit system, especially if losses occur.

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Senate Bill 1373 was among the disputed bills. The bill proposed the creation of a strategic reserve fund from confiscated crypto assets. However, Governor Hobbs vetoed it. She stated in her veto letter that she has already endorsed legislation in the current session permitting the state’s interaction with cryptocurrencies without jeopardizing the general fund.

Hobbs pointed out that the “current volatility” of cryptocurrency markets does not make them a suitable fit for general fund dollars. Aside from the vetoed bills, the Governor recently signed House Bill 2749 into law, which sets up a reserve fund for unclaimed digital assets that can be accessed for future use with legislative approval.

SB 1024 was another vetoed bill. The bill proposed to allow state agencies to accept cryptocurrency as a form of payment for fines or civil penalties. Governor Hobbs rejected this bill as well, citing the “high risk” associated with tying state agencies to digital currencies. This concern was recognized by lawmakers from both political spectrums.

Earlier this month, Hobbs vetoed SB 1025, which would have permitted the state’s treasurer and retirement systems to invest up to 10% of their funds in digital assets. On the other hand, Hobbs approved HB 2387, which imposes strict risk-disclosure requirements for crypto kiosk operators.

HB 2387 mandates that crypto kiosks provide clear warnings about consumer fraud, obtain customer acknowledgment of risks, and provide detailed transaction receipts. It also sets a daily transaction limit of $2,000 for new customers and requires 24-7 live customer service. This is aimed at preventing scams, especially those targeting the elderly.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet providing news, research, and data. Foresight Ventures, a majority investor of The Block as of November 2023, also invests in other crypto-related companies. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

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The ETF named FT Vest Bitcoin Strategy Floor15 (BFAP) aims to mirror Bitcoin’s performance up to a limited upside while curtailing the risk of drawdown to approximately 15%, as per First Trust’s announcement.

“Investors have shown a significant appetite for Bitcoin-linked ETFs over the past few years, but the potential for severe drawdowns has kept many away,” noted Ryan Issakainen, an ETF strategist at First Trust.

The other fund, FT Vest Bitcoin Strategy & Target Income ETF (DFII), is an actively managed fund that seeks to provide partial Bitcoin exposure while generating a yield that surpasses short-dated US Treasurys by at least 15%, according to the asset manager. The DFII fund “aims to leverage bitcoin’s high volatility to produce income by selling call options,” said Issakainen.

Bitcoin ETFs, launched in January 2024, became one of the most sought-after investment products of the previous year. As of April 4, spot BTC ETFs collectively manage approximately $93 billion in assets, as per Bitbo data. There is also a growing interest in other types of ETFs that offer tailored exposure to Bitcoin’s performance.

For instance, Grayscale, a crypto-focused asset manager, launched two Bitcoin strategy ETFs on April 2. Similar to First Trust’s ETFs, these instruments use financial derivatives for downside risk mitigation and income generation.

In March, Bitwise, another asset manager, introduced an ETF that holds stocks of companies with substantial Bitcoin treasuries. Spot BTC ETFs witnessed nearly $100 million in outflows on April 3 amid the increased market volatility following US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement on April 2.

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The analysis commences with a widely accepted belief across the crypto industry: Bitcoin operates in well-defined cycles, typically around four years, primarily linked to its halving cycles. Severino’s technical view is based on Bitcoin’s cycle indicator on the monthly candlestick timeframe chart, which traces back to 2013. As depicted in the chart below, Bitcoin has experienced four distinct cycles in its history. According to Severino, these cycles should be examined from “trough to trough.” The troughs, or market lows, also represent the highest financial opportunity. As the cycles progress, Bitcoin moves through phases of growing optimism, eventually reaching what Severino terms the “cyclical peak.” These peaks, marked in red on his chart, are when Bitcoin hits its maximum financial risk.

Bitcoin reached its peak in the current market cycle shortly before hitting its all-time high of $108,786 in January 2025. If previous cycles are any indication, the next few months could reveal if a top has already been hit.

However, Bitcoin might not be out of the woods yet. Severino points out that previous cycles have seen “right-translated” peaks, where Bitcoin continued to rise slightly even after crossing the peak. Notably, the 2017 bull run was the most right-translated, with price action remaining strong for some time after the red-zone peak. Meanwhile, other cycles began reversing soon after reaching this point of maximum risk.

Based on Severino’s model, Bitcoin appears to have already crossed the red peak, but this doesn’t definitively confirm a top. Rather, it suggests that the margin for error is quickly decreasing. The longer BTC continues to correct after this point, the higher the risk of a bearish phase becomes.

As of writing, BTC is attempting to regain bullish momentum, trading at $87,300 after a 3.6% increase over the past 24 hours. Several other analysts argue that the Bitcoin price could still reach higher levels this year before a definitive top is confirmed.

The post Unravelling Bitcoin’s Cyclicality: What Do Cyclical Peaks Indicate About a Potential BTC Apex? appeared first on Crypto Market Insights: Dive In with CryptoUpdate.io.

Published on March 17, this insight was part of CryptoQuant’s “Quicktake” blog series. The deleveraging event comes after Bitcoin hit its current all-time high in mid-January, causing a shift towards risk-aversion among Bitcoin derivative traders.

CryptoQuant’s data, which is derived from several leading crypto exchanges, shows that aggregate open interest on futures dwindled by $10 billion in merely three weeks, between February 20 and March 4.

“On January 17th, Bitcoin’s open interest peaked at over $33B, implying that market leverage had reached unprecedented levels,” writes Darkfost, a CryptoQuant contributor. He believes the decline represents a natural market reset, a crucial step towards maintaining a bullish trend.

An included chart clearly demonstrates the 90-day rolling change in aggregate open interest, shedding light on the market’s drastic reversal after reaching all-time highs. “At present, the 90-day change in Bitcoin futures open interest has plunged sharply, now standing at -14%,” concludes Darkfost.

Meanwhile, Kriptolik, another CryptoQuant contributor, points to a growing activity in derivative markets since November 2024, with an increase in stablecoin reserves across these exchanges. However, he warns that this does not necessarily translate to a price increase.

“Despite the rapid growth in total stablecoin supply since November 2024, it hasn’t significantly benefited the market or investors,” another blog post explains. Kriptolik highlights a “demand crisis” in spot markets and advises against high-leverage, high-risk trades until the distribution normalizes.

Please note: This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision involves risk. Readers should conduct their own research before making a decision.

The post Bitcoin Futures’ Deleveraging Event Triggers $10 Billion Dip in Open Interest appeared first on Crypto Market Insights: Dive In with CryptoUpdate.io.

The Bitcoin Perceived Demand metric by CryptoQuant reveals a severe drop to a negative 142 on March 13. Following a positive trajectory since September 2024 and reaching a peak around December 2024, the demand dipped considerably and remained on the decline since March 2025.

Concerns over an extended trade conflict, geopolitical instability, and persistently high inflation rates above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target are prompting traders to withdraw from risky assets and seek refuge in safer options like cash and government securities.

Post-election enthusiasm has fizzled out in the wake of the White House Crypto Summit on March 7, which left investors with mixed sentiments. The realities of economic uncertainty and political machinations are hitting home.

Contrary to the underwhelming CPI inflation data released on March 12, Bitcoin’s price fell sharply after the announcement. Crypto Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have seen four consecutive weeks of outflows since February, with traditional financial investors seeking safer investment avenues.

Data from CoinShares indicates that crypto ETFs have seen an outflow of $4.75 billion over the past month, including $756 million from BTC investment vehicles alone.

Miserable market sentiment coupled with recession fears have spurred a panic sell-off, causing a significant drop in crypto prices. Since President Trump’s inauguration on January 20, the Total3 Market Cap, excluding Ethereum (ETH) and BTC, has plunged over 27% from $1.1 trillion to around $795 billion.

Bitcoin’s price too has experienced a significant dip of over 22% from a peak of $109,000. Since March 9, Bitcoin has been trading below its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), with occasional dips below the 200-day EMA in February.

Bitcoin’s Average True Range (ATR), an indicator of volatility, now stands at over 5,035, suggesting considerable price fluctuations as the market contends with macro factors. According to crypto analyst Matthew Hyland, Bitcoin needs to secure a weekly close above $89,000 to avoid a further correction down to $69,000.

This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making a decision.

The post Bitcoin’s Perceived Demand Plummets to Record Low in 2025, CryptoQuant Reports appeared first on Crypto Market Insights: Dive In with CryptoUpdate.io.

Bloomberg’s crypto journalist, Emily Nicolle, shared her insights on Bitcoin as the pioneer cryptocurrency experienced a 13% drop and ventured into bearish territory. This could be attributed to macroeconomic instability and geopolitical issues.

During a Bloomberg TV interview, Nicolle stated that the current trends in Bitcoin are intrinsically linked with shifts in the macroeconomic environment. She suggested that happenings on Wall Street could have direct implications on the cryptocurrency market.

Nicolle emphasized that the influence of the macro environment on Bitcoin cannot be underestimated, remarking, “The effects on stocks reverberate within the crypto sphere.” She characterized Bitcoin as extremely speculative assets. She pointed out, “Bitcoin is affected by disruptions in the S&P 500. This is what’s propelling its current state.”

The analyst also noted that aside from the macroeconomic conditions, the cryptocurrency industry has been through a turbulent phase. She mentioned, “There was a $1.5 billion hack last week and political turmoil,” as contributing factors to the current state of Bitcoin.

Recently, Bitcoin suffered a blow when an estimated $1.5 billion worth of crypto was looted by a North Korea-based hacker group from Bybit, in what could be the largest cryptocurrency theft ever.

Regarding future prospects, Nicolle stated, “The future performance of Bitcoin remains uncertain, especially considering the current circumstances.”

Political instability also plays a role in pushing Bitcoin into bearish territory. Despite promises from the U.S. President Donald Trump to establish clear regulations on cryptocurrency, these have not been implemented. Nicolle pointed out that these unfulfilled promises could act as catalysts for potential Bitcoin growth in the coming weeks.

She concluded by saying that the macro environment is a significant determinant of Bitcoin’s potential. “Without any positive developments elsewhere, Bitcoin’s decline is likely to continue,” she predicted.

According to Nicolle, crypto traders are keenly watching the $70,000 mark, which is seen as a crucial psychological and technical support zone. She also noted that Bitcoin’s movement influences other cryptocurrencies. “When Bitcoin rises, other cryptocurrencies follow suit. However, smaller cryptocurrencies are more vulnerable during market volatility,” she explained.

The post Bitcoin’s Instability Persists, Crypto Expert Observes appeared first on Crypto Market Insights: Dive In with CryptoUpdate.io.