Could BTC and XRP Be Ready to Change Course?

The famous investment advice from Warren Buffett – buying when others are fearful and selling when they are greedy, resonates deeply in the volatile cryptocurrency market, where investor sentiment often swings between these two extremes. Santiment, a big advocate of this investment philosophy, pointed out recent shifts in investor behavior in their latest post. Based on overall social dominance, they concluded that BTC and XRP have moved out of the greed zone, even after hitting new all-time highs just a week ago and presently trading slightly below them.

This shift is primarily due to BTC’s tumble from over $123,000 to under $115,000, and XRP’s decline from $3.65 to just below $3. According to Santiment, the markets typically move contrary to crowd expectations, suggesting that BTC and XRP might be prime “buy-low” options.

While Bitcoin and XRP are experiencing low greed levels, Ethereum’s impressive +147% gains since early April continue to keep traders bullish. However, this level of greed among retail investors may not bode well for it.

Galaxy Wraps Up Major Sell-Off

A significant sell-off initiated by Galaxy Digital on behalf of a third party may have contributed to BTC’s sharp price drop yesterday to a two-week low. Yet, late on Friday, Mike Novogratz’s firm announced the successful execution of “one of the largest national bitcoin transactions in the history of crypto on behalf of a client.”

“Galaxy completed the sale of over 80,000 bitcoin—valued at over $9 billion based on current market prices—for a Satoshi-era investor, marking one of the earliest and most substantial exits from the digital asset market.”

With such a significant sell-off now in the past and retail investors’ diminishing greed for BTC, the cryptocurrency could be poised for another surge, possibly exceeding its all-time high.

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Data from CryptoQuant indicates that these daily outflows have exceeded previous highs, hinting that miners are capitalizing on recent market gains. Such an influx in supply might affect the prices temporarily.

Record Miner Sales

Reports from CryptoQuant reveal that the leap to 16K Bitcoin was driven by miners’ intent to secure profits following Bitcoin’s recent surge. This surge in Bitcoin miner sales is the highest since April with the majority of it directed to exchanges as Bitcoin reached a new all-time high.

Earlier this year, during the price rise from $75K to just above $100K, miners unloaded approximately 17K Bitcoin in April alone. Now, as prices push past $120K, they have embarked on another round of sell-off.

Miners typically sell when their operational costs are met and they stand to gain sizeable profits. However, when all miners sell simultaneously, it can induce market instability.

Mid-Tier Holders Also Unload

Large miners aren’t the sole participants in this sell-off. Wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 Bitcoin have reduced their balances from 68K Bitcoin to 65K Bitcoin since mid-June, resulting in a decrease of about 3K Bitcoin in just a few weeks.

During the April rally, this same group sold approximately 5K Bitcoin before reverting to buying mode when prices stabilized in a range. Currently, they represent a significant source of additional supply as the latest rally catches their interest.

Exchange Inflows Rise

Simultaneously, the total amount of cryptocurrency sent to exchanges jumped from around 13K Bitcoin per day to about 58K Bitcoin this week. This fourfold increase indicates a rush of profit-seekers eager to unload coins.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $118,000, down by 0.3% in the past 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

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Arkham suggests that the eight transfers, each involving 10,000 Bitcoin (BTC) from eight wallets that had been dormant for over 14 years, could be the wallet owner transitioning from the original legacy wallet to a more secure, low-fee Native SegWit address.

“Yesterday’s $8 billion transfers might be linked to address upgrades, moving from 1-addresses to bc1q-addresses,” Arkham reported. The firm also revealed that all the Bitcoin was initially deposited into the wallets on either April 2 or May 4, 2011, and remained untouched for more than 14 years. The Bitcoin is now stored in eight new wallets and hasn’t been moved since.

Meanwhile, blockchain research firm 10x Research suggests, despite no clear evidence, that large amounts of Bitcoin are gradually being offloaded into ETF and corporate treasury demand.

Interestingly, Coinbase’s Head of Product, Conor Grogan, put forward a more concerning possibility. He speculated about the slight chance of a hack causing the $8.6 billion Bitcoin transfer, suggesting it could potentially be the biggest heist in human history.

The enormous transfers have drawn the attention of the wider crypto industry. Former Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao humorously commented, “I got into crypto too late,” after observing the 2011 whales effortlessly moving crypto they purchased for merely $0.1.

The post “Bitcoin Whale’s $8.6B Transfer Suggests Wallet Upgrade, Not Sell-off: Arkham Insights” appeared first on Crypto Market Insights: Dive In with CryptoUpdate.io.

In a recent post, Colin hinted at the increasing probability of Bitcoin revisiting the $100,800 level, which serves as the first significant support point. This prediction came as Bitcoin exited a bullish pennant for the second time, with a measured target of the pennant set at $150,000.

However, given the most recent downturn, Bitcoin is at risk of further decline before possibly reversing the trend. The crypto analyst suggests the next significant support levels below $100,800 are $97,600 and $92,800, from which a swift rebound is likely.

According to Colin, such a price trajectory is possible within the right shoulder of the larger inverse Head-and-Shoulders pattern, effectively balancing it with the left shoulder. This analysis followed his revelation of Bitcoin’s deviation from the global M2 money supply.

Despite this, Colin believes that the Bitcoin bull market has not concluded. He pointed out that such deviations occur 20% of the time and do not negate the overall trend. Essentially, Bitcoin’s price is set to rally higher, potentially hitting the $150,000 target. Market expert Raoul Pal echoed this sentiment, stating that the current price movements are not a cause for concern.

In a separate post, Titan of Crypto, another analyst, urged Bitcoin bulls to step up. He noted that Bitcoin, having been repelled at the Fair Value Gap around $106,000, is now retesting the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle.

If this lower boundary at approximately $104,000 fails, the next level would be the previous weekly low at $102,679. If Bitcoin fails to maintain this level, it could further descend to the liquidity pocket near $100,300.

As of now, Bitcoin is trading at about $103,500, reflecting a decrease over the last 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap data.

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Early Investment Reaps Significant Rewards

Delving deeper into the tale, it’s fascinating to consider the initial investment this investor made in Pepe. Sources reveal they spent merely around $2,184 to acquire a whopping 1.5 trillion Pepe tokens in the early days.

Now, having offloaded part of their holdings, this individual has raked in profits of $6.66 million, which equates to a staggering 4,718-fold return on their initial investment. Even after this massive sale, they still possess a substantial amount of Pepe tokens – about 493 billion, currently valued at approximately $3.64 million.

Price Takes a Hit

The news of this massive sale seems to have negatively impacted Pepe’s price. Over the last 24 hours, the coin’s value has fallen by about 4.59%, according to the transaction record. Some sources even report a slightly larger decrease, over 5%. Currently, one Pepe coin is trading at around $0.00006976, showcasing how market prices can be influenced by the actions of large-scale token holders.

Market Exhibits Signs of Instability

Beyond this major sale, Pepe’s price is also under pressure from a sluggish overall cryptocurrency market. Despite the lower price, Pepe continues to see active trading. The daily trading volume has in fact increased by about 3.90% to $421.28 million, indicating that interest in buying and selling the meme coin remains robust despite the price dip.

Technical Indicators Suggest Downward Trend

A look at some key technical charts reveals a gloomy outlook for Pepe at present. The MACD chart suggests a bearish signal, indicating a potential continued price drop. The RSI is in the so-called “oversold” territory at 24.55, usually a sign of significant selling pressure.

Data also indicates a consistent outflow of money from Pepe since mid-January, a negative sign for its price. Some market analysts predict that if Pepe’s price remains below a particular threshold, around $0.0000075, it could plummet another 20% to roughly $0.00000585.

Featured image from Gemini Imagen, chart from TradingView.

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Renowned crypto analyst Daan recently shared a technical analysis indicating that Ethereum is once again acknowledging the $2,800 resistance level but did not manage to breach it on its first attempt. This resistance level has been identified as a crucial point for bulls, as surpassing it is vital for any extended recovery. Daan points out that Ethereum’s future movements heavily depend on this $2,800 mark, which could either rekindle bullish momentum or lead to further consolidation and drops.

With the crypto market still reeling from uncertainty, attention is focused on Ethereum’s ability to recapture this pivotal level. Bulls need to stand their ground to ward off another round of sell-offs, as the upcoming days will likely shape Ethereum’s short-term path and its ability to sustain the recovery.

Currently, Ethereum is trading below the $2,800 mark, gearing up for a decisive move that will determine its short-term direction. The overall sentiment around Ethereum continues to be bearish, with frustrations mounting over its failure to recapture key levels. Hopes for a rally of the second-largest cryptocurrency are fading as the price action continues to disappoint.

Ethereum is presently trading at $2,640 after an unsuccessful attempt to push past the $2,700 mark since last Friday. The bulls seem to have lost momentum, with the price facing solid resistance between $2,700 and $2,800. This critical supply zone has restricted Ethereum’s upward movement, leaving the market in a state of uncertainty.

To regain bullish momentum, Ethereum needs a strong demand at current levels and a breakthrough above this critical resistance zone. Reclaiming these levels as support would be the first step toward reversing the bearish trend that has held the market since late January. Without such a move, Ethereum is exposed to further downside risks.

If Ethereum fails to maintain above $2,600 in the coming days, the price is likely to undergo a deeper correction. Falling below this level could push Ethereum into lower demand zones, testing support around $2,500 or lower. The $2,600 mark is being closely watched by traders and investors as a critical threshold for Ethereum’s next move.

For now, the outlook remains bearish, and the coming days will be critical in determining whether Ethereum can muster the strength to recapture key levels or whether further declines are imminent.

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These import tariffs are due to be enforced on Tuesday, enacted in response to what the US government perceives as inadequate measures by the three foreign governments to curb drug trafficking into the United States, according to the White House. In retaliation, Canada has announced its own set of tariffs, and Mexico and China have both pledged to take similar action. China declared on Sunday that it would lodge a formal complaint with the World Trade Organization over the tariffs.

The Block’s GMCI Solana Memes index, which monitors top Solana memecoins by market cap such as Dogwifhat and Bonk, has seen a decrease of over 13% in the last 24 hours, and a 30% plunge in the past week, as the market reacts to what the conservative Wall Street Journal editorial board has dubbed “the dumbest trade war in history.”

The official memecoin of Trump has also suffered, dipping 7% in the past day and 30% over the past week, as per The Block’s Official Trump Price page. Melania’s memecoin is experiencing similar hardship, down 5% in the past 24 hours and about 38% down on the week.

Almost all top memecoins by market cap, as listed by CoinMarketCap, have seen their prices drop by more than 20% in the past week (the single exception, Shiba Inu, is down 17.3% for the week). None of the site’s top 100 tokens by market cap, excluding stablecoins, have shown gains in the last 24 hours.

The Block’s GMCI 30 index, representing the top 30 tokens by market cap, has been the most resilient of The Block’s indices, experiencing a 7.15% decrease, in contrast to the double-digit percentage losses of most other indices. Consequently, Bitcoin’s price has slipped below the $100,000 threshold.

In a post on Truth Social early Sunday, Trump stated, “THIS WILL BE THE GOLDEN AGE OF AMERICA! WILL THERE BE SOME PAIN? YES, MAYBE (AND MAYBE NOT!). BUT WE WILL MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, AND IT WILL ALL BE WORTH THE PRICE THAT MUST BE PAID.”

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© 2024 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is intended solely for informational purposes. It is not meant to serve as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

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Bitcoin’s price has fluctuated between $70,000 and $54,000 over the past six months, maintaining a largely rangebound trading pattern. While this has frustrated some investors, Cipolaro points out that it demonstrates Bitcoin’s underlying strength. A significant factor influencing price pressure in Q3 was the resolution of major bankruptcies, including the Mt. Gox case. The redistribution of 204,000 Bitcoins (worth over $12.6 billion) and sales from U.S. and German governments also contributed to the pressure on the market. However, Cipolaro highlights that the fear of these coins hitting the market had a larger effect on prices than the actual sell-offs.

Traditional asset classes outpaced Bitcoin in Q3, benefitting from lower interest rates. Gold hit all-time highs, adding more competition to Bitcoin’s status as a store of value. Still, Bitcoin remains the best-performing asset in 2024, maintaining a lead over equities, gold, and real estate on a year-to-date basis.

Looking ahead, NYDIG is optimistic about Q4. Historically a strong quarter for Bitcoin, Cipolaro identifies catalysts like the upcoming U.S. presidential election as potential triggers for a price surge. According to NYDIG, a Trump victory could offer substantial gains for Bitcoin, but the cryptocurrency could also thrive amidst post-election market instability. Additionally, demand for U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, which pulled in $4.3 billion in total flows, continues to support Bitcoin’s price, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust leading inflows.

Cipolaro concludes that despite the headwinds, Bitcoin is positioned for a robust Q4, thanks to its low correlation with traditional assets, providing unique diversification benefits for investors.

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