BTC Price Analysis: Technicals by Shayan

The Daily Chart

Despite moving towards its all-time high of $111K, Bitcoin exhibits declining bullish momentum. Factors such as consistent profit-taking and enhanced selling pressure at this psychological level have resulted in muted volatility in recent sessions. Additionally, on-chain indicators expose distribution among long-term holders, adding more supply and fortifying resistance near the ATH.

Nevertheless, the ongoing consolidation phase below $111K can act as a springboard for a breakout, given there is fresh demand in the market. A bullish breakout might trigger a short-squeeze, pushing the price towards the $120K mark and potentially setting a new record high.

The 4-Hour Chart

On a smaller timeframe, Bitcoin made an attempt to climb but faced resistance at the upper boundary of a descending wedge around $108,000. This has led to a low-volatility sideways structure, with the pattern’s upper trendline playing the role of strong resistance.

If the price fails to reclaim this level, another rejection is probable, possibly pulling Bitcoin back towards the $100K support at the wedge’s lower boundary. On the flip side, a significant breakout above $108K could spur a fresh bullish wave, aiming for the $111K ATH again. Although momentum seems slow, market structure and pattern formation suggest Bitcoin is gearing up for a breakout, with only the timing left uncertain.

On-chain Analysis by Shayan

Chart data gives vital insights into the volume of Bitcoin’s supply being spent or reactivated by different age bands. Amid the current static price action between $100K and $111K, many are curious as to why the market’s momentum is fading. This data might provide a lucid explanation.

Long-term holders, those who have kept their coins for over three years, seem to be the main contributors to the ongoing selling pressure. These investors are cashing in on substantial profits, often many times their initial cost basis, thereby placing consistent resistance on the price’s ability to climb further.

As long as this profit-taking wave persists, upward momentum is likely to remain restricted. However, if these holders slow their selling and fresh demand enters the market, Bitcoin could burst above the $111K barrier, triggering a potential short-squeeze and paving the way for further price discovery.

The post Deciphering Bitcoin’s Future: A Key Level to Surpass for a Leap Towards $120,000 appeared first on Crypto Market Insights: Dive In with CryptoUpdate.io.

As reported by CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost, BTC funding rates on Binance switched from positive to negative. This change occurred despite the leading cryptocurrency trading above the $100,000 threshold at the time of reporting.

The sudden funding rate reversal, from +0.003 to -0.004, is believed to be a result of the public disagreement between Trump and Musk on social media platforms. Following this change in sentiment, BTC’s price fell from the mid-$100,000s to a low of $100,984, as per CoinGecko data. Over the last fortnight, the digital asset’s value has dropped by 4.1%.

However, this dip might present a golden opportunity for investors. A strong BTC rebound could lead to increased buying pressure, potentially triggering a short squeeze that could further elevate BTC’s price.

Darkfost indicated that there have been three instances in the current market cycle where BTC experienced such deep negative funding. Each instance was succeeded by a significant upward price movement. For instance, on October 16, 2023, and September 9, 2024, BTC rallied from $28,000 to $73,000 and $57,000 to $108,000, respectively following a dip into negative funding territory. The most recent case was on May 2, 2025, with BTC jumping from $97,000 to a new all-time high (ATH) of $111,000.

Bitcoin whales, or large BTC holders, continue to accumulate the digital asset. New whales have reportedly added BTC worth $63 billion to their holdings, signalling strong confidence in the cryptocurrency’s future performance.

Backing this bullish outlook, a recent analysis by QCR Capital suggests that large investors predict BTC could reach as high as $130,000 by the end of Q3 2025. Furthermore, the realized cap held by long-term holders has exceeded $20 billion, further bolstering positive sentiment.

Despite this optimism, some analysts are preaching caution, predicting a BTC crash below the $100,000 mark before a bullish resurgence. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $104,069, down 0.5% in the last 24 hours.

The post Is Bitcoin Gearing Up for a Short Squeeze Amid Negative Funding on Binance? appeared first on Crypto Market Insights: Dive In with CryptoUpdate.io.