The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for long-term holders (LTH) is one metric gaining attention. It has reached a new high for 2025, according to CryptoQuant analyst Gaah. This indicator measures the profitability of coins moved by owners who have held their Bitcoin for over 155 days. Current readings suggest that LTHs are starting to sell at a profit, but the SOPR is yet to reach the critical levels traditionally associated with market peaks.

Gaah pointed out that while the LTH SOPR has crossed the midpoint and is slightly above 2.5, it’s still far below the 4.0 level, which has historically signaled macro peaks in past cycles. This indicates that long-term investors are making profits, but not in a manner that suggests a market frenzy or widespread divestment. Higher SOPR readings above 4.0 in previous bull cycles marked the beginning of substantial corrections or cycle peaks.

The steady rise in profit-taking suggests a maturing market that still has upward potential. Gaah advises investors to view this as part of the natural progression of a bullish phase, although correction risks persist. The ongoing patterns of accumulation and realization by LTHs offer a glimpse into how confidence and caution can coexist in the market.

In related news, CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain pointed out the continual activity in the Bitcoin derivatives market. He noted that the total number of outstanding futures contracts, or open interest, remains high near $42 billion. Though slightly down from recent peaks, this level is near historical highs and shows robust trader involvement.

Arab Chain also underlined the impact of rising funding rates on market sentiment. Presently, these funding rates show a dominance of long positions, suggesting a bullish market. However, with high open interest and increasing leveraged trades, this could also indicate a higher risk of volatility. An unexpected price shift could trigger widespread liquidations if funding becomes unsustainable, forcing exchanges to close positions.

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Technical Analysis by Edris Derakhshi (TradingRage)

From the daily chart, it’s clear that BTC’s price has experienced a consolidation period under the $108K level, and it’s currently breaking the $100K support, heading downward. If this support fails, we could see Bitcoin plummeting to the $92K level in the upcoming weeks. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) being under 50% supports this bearish projection.

On a more optimistic note, the 4-hour chart exhibits promising signs for a potential rally in the next few months. The asset is seen following a considerable bullish flag pattern. Right now, the price is approaching the pattern’s lower boundary. If it holds, a market surge and a break of the pattern upward could be in sight, marking a bullish continuation. But if the lower trendline breaks, the market could swiftly turn sour, sending Bitcoin tumbling down to $92K or even lower.

On-Chain Analysis by Edris Derakhshi (TradingRage)

The Long-Term Holder SOPR metric shows that Bitcoin’s price has been hovering around peak values in recent months, likely due to substantial profit-taking among investors. This metric represents the ratio of profits taken by investors who have held their BTC for over 6 months.

As indicated by this metric’s 30-day moving average, these long-term holders have been actively selling their BTC, leading to the market’s inability to rally further. However, these profit-realization statistics are still lower than those seen last summer when the market was trading at lower levels. This suggests that if selling pressure decreases, BTC has a high chance of climbing even higher.

The post Potential Bitcoin Drop to $92K: An Analysis of Current Market Trends appeared first on Crypto Market Insights: Dive In with CryptoUpdate.io.

At recent levels, even confidence of the hardened holders that appears to get faltering. This has not quite low after 2015 bear market. Also, during 2018 in the bear market with the event of December capitulation. It is the indicator which does not fall to levels at such moment. Here, metric is not yet noted by famous crypto analyst. They have also posted commenting that either one also has indicator that gets broken that zone for high timeframe bottoming.

An overview for Bitcoin capitulating!

The Bitcoin markets also not been across through the recession. One might even declare this later during the month following up two-quarters having the negative GDP figures. Different kind of the metrics like SOPR also known as long-term Spent Output Profit Ratio even have tanked to lows. Such kind of the indicator simply measures realized value of the divided by value at creation of the output. Also, in different words, price sold will get divided by price purchased.

As per the chart, the Bitcoin investors or holders for long term still are selling at a loss that simply suggests capitulation is happening recently.

Prices also have seen range-bound for last three weeks, there by oscillating between high $18,000 zone & also low $22,000 zone. Its realized the price, and aggregate basis of cost for supply.

The key event of capitulation is possibly to send down the prices to almost $12,000 that is 82%+ drawdown. It is also similar to those which observed in last two bearish markets.

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