During this 12-day conflict, Bitcoin experienced a temporary dip below the $100,000 mark, causing market instability. However, after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, global risk sentiment improved, sparking a Bitcoin rally. This resurgence saw Bitcoin surpass the $106,000 mark on Wednesday.

The latest data analysis suggests that amid continuing geopolitical uncertainty, Bitcoin could potentially surge to $120K. This prediction comes after Bitcoin successfully reclaimed its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a critical technical indicator often used as support during broader bullish trend corrections.

Historically, when Bitcoin dips below this level and swiftly regains it, the market typically responds with a speedy 10-20% price surge. This trend seems to be recurring, with Bitcoin closing above the EMA for three consecutive days, signaling strengthening bullish momentum.

Market analysts at CryptoQuant suggested that this recovery could catalyze a new upward trend in the current cycle, although they warned of potential short-term volatility due to geopolitical factors. They emphasized the importance of maintaining a risk-managed approach and avoiding excessive leverage in such circumstances.

Despite the geopolitical instability, the reclaiming of the 50-day EMA represents a significant milestone for Bitcoin, reinforcing the possibility of a rally towards the six-figure mark.

On-chain metrics, particularly the behavior of short-term holders, also support Bitcoin’s current momentum. The Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP) is acting as a critical psychological and technical support for Bitcoin. Currently standing at $98K, each increase fortifies the six-figure mark as the new perceived ‘fair value.’

Bitcoin’s spot price is $106.4K, a 7.2% premium over STH-RP, suggesting reduced market ‘froth.’ As long as Bitcoin maintains above STH-RP, the trend of higher lows and higher highs remains intact; a dip below could indicate a potential correction.

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