According to a report by Santiment, this behavior is typical of retail traders who need to identify a singular cause for significant crypto market fluctuations. The report highlights the surge in social media discussions linking the crypto market decline to the US-China tariff tensions.

Crypto Market Decline: Beyond the Tariffs

While the tariffs were a catalyst, analysts from The Kobeissi Letter argue that the crypto market decline stems from broader issues, including excessive leverage and risk, which have exacerbated the situation. With a substantial long bias in the market, approximately $16.7 billion in long positions were liquidated, compared to just $2.5 billion in shorts, reflecting a nearly 7-to-1 ratio.

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a severe drop, falling over 10% within a day. The BTCUSDT futures pair on Binance plummeted to as low as $102,000 following the tariff announcement.

Impact of US-China Developments on Crypto Market

As per Santiment, future developments between the US and China will be crucial in shaping retail traders’ strategies. Positive outcomes from dialogues between Trump and Xi could improve market sentiment, while escalating tensions might lead to more pessimistic forecasts. The prediction of Bitcoin falling under $100,000 could gain traction if conflicts intensify.

Amidst the crypto market decline, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures market sentiment, dropped to a “Fear” level of 27, down from Friday’s “Greed” level of 64. This 37-point decline marks the lowest sentiment level in nearly six months, underscoring the market’s current volatility.

Overall, the crypto market decline highlights the interconnectedness of global geopolitical events and financial markets. As traders navigate these challenges, understanding the multifaceted reasons behind market movements becomes essential for informed decision-making.

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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June witnessed a 2.7% increment year-on-year, slightly surpassing the forecasted 2.6% increase.

The core CPI, which excludes the volatile sectors such as food and energy, remained consistent with the predicted 2.9%. The month-on-month CPI growth also matched expert estimations at +0.3%.

Reports suggest that the fall in gas prices and a slow-down of inflation in the housing sector were advantageous in the preceding months. However, the situation has pivoted, with Trump’s tariffs starting to show their impact.

Bitcoin’s price displayed an instant response to the release of the data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. An initial dip from $117,000 to $116,400 was quickly followed by a recovery back to the original amount.

Although Bitcoin’s price fell by $6,000 from the previous day, it has risen by over $10,000 since the past week, even hitting a new record high of over $123,000.

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Despite the weekend, the crypto markets were able to sustain the gains from last week and even showed signs of further ascension on Monday morning in Asia. Should the US inflation reports coming out this week prove to be positive, this upwards trend could potentially continue.

Just last week, former President Trump declared 30% tariffs on the European Union and Mexico, but the crypto markets seemed unmoved by this development. US stock futures, however, showed signs of nervousness, dipping slightly as an initial response to this latest batch of tariff letters from the White House.

Meanwhile, the start of the second quarter earnings season is imminent, and the July Federal Reserve meeting is just a fortnight away.

On Tuesday, the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released, one of the two main indicators of inflation relevant to policymakers, businesses, and consumers alike. This data, reflecting price trends, shapes consumer spending and sentiment and directly impacts the Fed’s rate decisions.

Experts predict that June’s CPI will increase by 0.23% to 0.25%, with persistent inflationary pressures, particularly in the energy sector and selected goods, due to tariffs. More inflation data will follow on Wednesday with June’s Producer Price Index (PPI). This report indicates the costs for producers and manufacturers, and measures the cost of producing consumer goods, hence influencing retail prices and serving as a leading indicator of inflation.

The Retail Sales report for June, to be released on Thursday, will provide insights into consumer spending on durable and non-durable goods and serve as a key economic health indicator.

The week will conclude with the release of July’s Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Inflation Expectations reports on Friday, which will summarize a monthly survey measuring consumer confidence and long-term inflation expectations.

Thierry Wizman, a global foreign-exchange and rates strategist at Macquarie Group, stated, “Investors have become more relaxed about the overall inflation outlook over the past few months. The market has not exactly shifted toward a disinflationary mode, but it’s certainly less anxious about inflation.”

The earnings season for the big banks will commence this week with reports from JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs.

The total capitalization of the crypto market showed a slight increase on Monday morning, reaching $3.8 trillion, the highest level since mid-January. Bitcoin, which added an additional 1.7% and hit a new all-time high of $119,750 during the morning’s Asian trading session, primarily drove this rise. Ethereum managed to regain $3,000, while the altcoins were mostly in the green, with Stellar and Hedera making significant gains of more than 20%.

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According to The Block’s cryptocurrency price tracker, Bitcoin has risen by 1.16% within a day, currently trading at $109,362. Over the weekend, Bitcoin’s value had fallen to roughly $108,000, but it regained momentum as of Sunday.

On Sunday, Bitcoin closed at a weekly all-time high of $109,443 as per data from Yahoo Finance. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on Sunday that tariffs, initially proposed in April, would be imposed from August 1 on countries without a U.S. trade agreement. He cautioned that the tariff level would return to those of April if negotiations fell through by the deadline.

President Trump had previously suspended tariffs for 90 days in April, a pause set to end on Wednesday. BTSE COO, Jeff Mei, stated, “Markets seem to be rallying as it’s revealed that countries now have more negotiation time before tariffs kick in at August’s start.”

Mei also mentioned that the U.S. consumer price index release on July 15 would provide further details on whether inflation is low enough for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. A cut in interest rates could fuel a prolonged rally, potentially surpassing Bitcoin’s all-time high of $111,814.

“Bitcoin could enter a new price discovery phase once it exceeds its all-time high. Select altcoins might follow suit as DeFi protocols and AI companies increasingly cater to institutional demand,” says LVRG Research Director, Nick Ruck.

Other cryptocurrencies also saw gains in the past 24 hours. Ether increased by 2.41% to $2,577, XRP grew by 2.29% to $2.27, and Solana climbed by 2.96% to $152. The GMCI 30 Index, measuring the performance of the top 30 cryptocurrencies, is up by 2.2%.

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The dip might be a result of investors cashing in their profits before the weekend. At the time, Bitcoin was only 1.5% below its record peak. Investors are also concerned about the potential fallout of an international trade conflict, particularly after President Donald Trump of the United States confirmed the July 9 deadline for an increase in import tariffs.

Some investors believe that the market was spooked by the movement of a long-inactive Bitcoin wallet. Onchain analysts hypothesize that a miner from 2011 was behind Friday’s 80,009 BTC transfer, stirring up fears of a potential sale. Despite these fears, it’s not uncommon for large holders to move dormant coins. In fact, if the holder had plans to sell, shifting such a large number of coins could be counterproductive as it might affect the market price.

Moreover, even with an over-the-counter deal, it seems unlikely that a buyer would take on $4.3 billion in Bitcoin in one go. For context, Strategy accumulated 17,075 BTC over the course of June. Nevertheless, such large transfers often spark market fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD), which can exert short-term pressure on prices.

Historical data shows that this kind of isolated movement does not typically correlate with long-term trend reversals. For instance, addresses from 2013 transferred over 3,420 BTC in May 2025, and another wallet moved 2,000 BTC in November 2024 that hadn’t been touched for 14 years.

Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett from Bank of America Global Research suggests the recent dip in Bitcoin’s value is more likely due to growing macroeconomic worries. As reported by Bloomberg, Hartnett’s team noted a rise in “bubble risks” following the US government’s approval of a “$3.4 trillion fiscal package that cuts taxes”. The deteriorating fiscal outlook could dampen the demand for long-term government bonds, thereby affecting broader risk markets, including Bitcoin.

Adding to the economic uncertainty, the Trump administration has reportedly started notifying other countries about “setting unilateral tariff rates” should trade agreements not be finalized by the coming Wednesday. This global economic instability, rather than any specific crypto-related factor, might be the real reason behind Bitcoin’s struggle to maintain the $110,000 mark.

The post Bitcoin Takes a Dip to $107K Despite $1B Inflow into BTC ETFs: Unraveling the Reasons Behind the Slide appeared first on Crypto Market Insights: Dive In with CryptoUpdate.io.

Swyftx’s chief analyst, Pav Hundal, conveyed his concerns to Cointelegraph, stating, “The primary risk for bulls at this moment is the potential stagnation over the forthcoming two months, as we seem to be ensnared in this continuous cycle of infinite tariff ultimatums.”

Hundal suggested that US policymakers might postpone monetary loosening until they obtain “concrete data” on the ramifications of Trump’s tariffs, which could potentially trigger a “slowdown in growth”. On May 7, the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee retained the rates within the 4.25% to 4.50% bracket due to the escalating risks of increased unemployment and inflation.

Hundal expressed concerns that maintaining this uncertainty could overshadow risk-on markets. He added, “If bears have their triumphant moment, Bitcoin could potentially slump below $100,000.”

When Trump first broached the topic of tariffs in early February, Bitcoin experienced a drop below $100,000, with its volatility influenced by decisions regarding trade policy, pauses, and announcements. It hovered below this level for more than three months until May 8.

On May 28, the US Court of International Trade restrained Trump from imposing his tariffs, arguing that he transgressed his authority. Nevertheless, Trump recently amplified tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum to 50%.

Hundal voiced that this uncertainty might have put the inflation target for the year in jeopardy. He remarked, “Just six months ago, a 2% inflation target seemed achievable; now, it’s under long-term risk from tariffs.”

However, Hundal noted that the ideal outcome would be the cessation of “tariff posturing”, which could pave the way for Bitcoin to attain $120,000 in June. Bitfinex analysts had previously predicted that Bitcoin might skyrocket to new peaks above $115,000 in July if institutional purchasing persists and US job data underperforms expectations.

The analysts opined that a “less than anticipated” report could bolster the “disinflation narrative” and prompt the Federal Reserve to contemplate reducing interest rates earlier, which would be advantageous for Bitcoin.

Disclaimer: This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

The post Crypto Analyst Warns of Bitcoin’s Threat Amidst Unsettled Tariff Disputes appeared first on Crypto Market Insights: Dive In with CryptoUpdate.io.

However, despite the potential negative effects of President Trump’s tariff policy changes on the U.S. Dollar and its supremacy, continuous modifications to U.S. cryptocurrency policy and legislation could serve as a counterbalance. This perspective is backed by President Trump’s statements expressing his support for the growth of the crypto industry, made shortly before the previous month’s “Liberation Day” tariff increase announcement.

Although the White House has been relatively silent on crypto matters since tariff discussions took precedence, Binance CEO Richard Teng believes another wave of transformation for the crypto space is imminent. Teng opines that the forthcoming wave of proposed legislation may accelerate institutional adoption of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency assets, potentially boosting prices.

While President Trump’s indications about new cryptocurrency-related policy changes and legislation may have been somewhat vague, Teng’s insights lend credibility to the optimistic outlook on further institutional adoption of Bitcoin and other digital currencies.

At the recent Token2049 conference, Teng shared his experiences from recent meetings with U.S. regulators and key government officials. He expressed confidence in the future of crypto in the U.S., stating, “The enthusiasm and optimism in the U.S. are very real. I believe the U.S. will introduce very enlightened, pro-industry, and smart regulations that support the industry while managing the risk simultaneously.”

Previously, pro-growth regulatory changes like the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs have resulted in major financial institutions embracing crypto. Teng is of the view that clear regulatory guidelines will trigger another wave of institutional adoption, potentially offsetting the short-term fear and uncertainty currently plaguing the space.

Despite the focus on tariffs, it’s evident that the Trump administration still has a keen interest in cryptocurrency. Based on the President’s statements in March, it’s clear that a pro-crypto agenda is still a priority for Trump and his administration.

Trump, speaking at the Digital Asset Summit 2025, shared his vision for America’s role in promoting the growth of the crypto and blockchain economy. He stated that the industry could “improve our banking and payment system,” leading to “an explosion of economic growth.” He also highlighted how stablecoins pegged to the U.S. Dollar could help “expand the dominance” of the world’s primary reserve currency.

The bottom line is, while some of Trump’s statements may be taken with a pinch of skepticism, others should be considered seriously. Only time will reveal the impact of stablecoins on U.S. Dollar dominance, particularly in the face of potential shifts away from American hegemony due to tariff changes. However, given Richard Teng’s recent comments, the Trump administration appears poised to introduce another game-changer for the crypto industry later this year.

The post “U.S. Pro-Cryptocurrency Regulations Poised to Reinforce U.S. Dollar’s Strength” appeared first on Crypto Market Insights: Dive In with CryptoUpdate.io.

President Trump’s recent decision to postpone proposed tariff increases for 90 days could potentially influence a BTC trend reversal. This decision, made on April 9, also introduced a reciprocal 10% tariff on all countries excluding China. Despite this gesture of goodwill, Trump also escalated the trade war with China by increasing tariffs on Chinese imports to the US by 125%, citing their lack of “respect for world markets.” This action initiated a significant market rally, with Bitcoin rising over 7% to $82,000 as investor anxiety was alleviated.

However, China’s retaliatory tariffs of 84% on US imports, effective from April 10, hint at an intensifying conflict. If talks fall through and the US-China trade war worsens post the 90-day hiatus, Bitcoin may experience another dip as markets recoil from the uncertainty.

Inflation fears and possible recessions are also contributing to Bitcoin’s potential downfall. Bitcoin has shown an increasing correlation with tech stocks and the overall market sentiment, experiencing sharp dips during periods of market unrest. For instance, Bitcoin suffered a nearly 10% dip from its highs earlier this year, slipping below $80,000, when Trump’s initial tariff announcements caused a stock sell-off.

Experts suggest that if trade tensions escalate further or central banks tighten monetary policy to counteract inflation, investors may abandon risky assets like Bitcoin, causing its price to drop. This implies that an unexpected economic shock, such as a Federal Reserve rate hike or a global growth slowdown, could trigger another crash, particularly if Bitcoin fails to break its current trading range of $80,000-$90,000.

Traders are currently watching the April 10 CPI data closely, which could shift the focus back onto the domestic economy. A weaker print would be advantageous, helping to offset the inflationary influence introduced by the blanket tariff policy.

Although one Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled in the interim, interest rates are unlikely to decrease before June. The chances of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged at the May 7 meeting are 81.5%. If crucial price levels do not hold, this could further dampen Bitcoin’s appeal and potentially push its price down even more.

From a technical standpoint, important Bitcoin levels to observe include the 111-day moving average (MA) at $93,000, the 200-day MA at $87,000, and the 365-day MA at $76,000. As highlighted in Glassnode’s latest Week’s On-chain report, the price must now hold above the 365-day MA to avoid another downturn.

If Bitcoin fails to hold above $80,000, it could be on a downward trajectory again. In such a scenario, critical levels to observe below the 365-day EMA include the active realized price at $71,000 and, in extreme cases, the true market mean of around $65,000. If the tariff wars and stock market unrest persist, Bitcoin risks another dip to five-month lows at $71,000.

Reminder: This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making a decision.

The post Could Bitcoin’s Value Plummet Once More? An In-depth Analysis appeared first on Crypto Market Insights: Dive In with CryptoUpdate.io.

There are four primary types of tariffs:

• Ad valorem tariffs: These tariffs are percentage-based on the value of goods. For instance, a 20% tax might be imposed on goods worth $100.
• Specific tariffs: These tariffs are fixed fees based on the quantity of goods. For instance, a $5 tariff might be imposed on each imported kilogram of sugar.
• Compound tariffs: These tariffs are a combination of specific and ad valorem duties applied to the same imported goods. The total tax is determined by calculating both tariffs together. For instance, a country may impose a tariff on imported wine at $5 per liter plus an additional 10% of the wine’s cost.
• Mixed tariffs: These tariffs apply either a specific or ad valorem duty, based on predefined conditions. For instance, for imported trucks, a country may charge either $5,000 per vehicle or 15% of the vehicle’s value, whichever is higher.

The objective of these policies is to influence international trade flows, protect domestic industries, and respond to unfair practices by foreign countries. When a tariff is applied to an imported good, it raises its cost, making domestically produced alternatives more attractive to customers in terms of price.

In the US, the Trump administration used reciprocal tariffs as a significant instrument to influence the trade policies of other nations. Reciprocal tariffs are trade duties that a country imposes in retaliation to tariffs or barriers set by another country. The aim of this policy is to correct trade imbalances and safeguard domestic industries.

Did you know? Some countries use tariff-rate quotas, which allow a specified quantity of a product to be imported at a lower tariff. Once the quota is exceeded, a higher tariff is imposed. This system balances domestic protection with access to global markets, particularly in sectors like agriculture and textiles.

The trade conflict between the US and China wasn’t just a bilateral spat. It signaled a structural rethinking of trade policy in a multipolar world. The trade war began after the US imposed sweeping tariffs under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, citing unfair trade practices, intellectual property theft, and forced technology transfers by China.

Over time, the US levied tariffs on more than $360 billion worth of Chinese goods. China retaliated with tariffs on $110 billion of US exports, targeting critical sectors like agriculture and manufacturing.

The conflict disrupted major supply chains and raised costs for American businesses and consumers. American farmers were hit hard by retaliatory Chinese tariffs on soybeans, leading the US government to provide billions in subsidies to offset losses.

While the Phase One Agreement in 2020 eased tensions and required China to increase purchases of US goods and enforce intellectual property protections, many tariffs remained in place. The Biden administration retained most of the economic measures imposed by the first Trump administration, signaling bipartisan concern over China’s trade practices.

As of April 10, 2025, Trump had imposed 125% tariffs on China, while for 75 countries, he had paused the imposition of tariffs for 90 days.

When a tariff is applied — for example, a 30% tax on imported steel — it raises the price of that good for importers. They, in turn, pass these added costs to downstream businesses, which further transfer these costs to consumers.

Overall, while tariffs aim to protect domestic industries, their impact is felt across the economy through altering prices, trade flows, and business strategies. Tariffs influence everyone — from factory owners to workers and everyday shoppers.

Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2 triggered a sharp sell-off in both equities and Bitcoin (BTC), with BTC plunging 10.5% in a week. According to analysts, institutional investors increasingly treat BTC as a risk-on asset closely tied to policy shifts. While some view Bitcoin as digital gold, recent behavior shows it reacting more like Nasdaq stocks — falling during global uncertainty and rallying on positive sentiment.

Did you know? Tariff exemptions can be highly strategic. Governments may exclude specific industries or companies, allowing them to import goods tariff-free while competitors pay more. This creates an uneven playing field and can spark domestic controversy.

Whether used defensively or offensively, tariffs shape the balance between protectionism and global engagement. This makes tariffs a matter not just of economics, but of national strategy and global influence.

The post Decoding Tariffs: Their Functionality and Impact on Global Economy appeared first on Crypto Market Insights: Dive In with CryptoUpdate.io.

Data sourced from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTCUSD achieving $86,000 for the first time since April 2. The digital currency responded positively to the announcement that US President Donald Trump had chosen to exclude certain crucial products from his ongoing trade tariffs against China.

Traditional markets remain closed over weekends, leading to less liquidity in the crypto markets and an increased likelihood of price fluctuations. Bitcoin subsequently fell below $84,000.

However, even with this dip, BTCUSD was still up 7% for the week, recovering from an earlier descent to five-month lows. Many traders remain skeptical about the strength of Bitcoin’s price.

The ongoing relationship with the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $85,000 was noted by Daan Crypto Trades. He mentioned the expectation of another volatile week ahead due to tariff-related news and upcoming big tech earnings.

The rebound from the lows, according to trader Peter, appears “more corrective than it does impulsive.” Meanwhile, Rekt Capital, a well-known trader and analyst, noted that the real challenge for a Bitcoin bull market resurgence lies in a persistent long-term daily downtrend.

“Bitcoin has Daily Closed above the Downtrend. Thus, breakout confirmation is underway,” he explained in one of his recent X updates. This was accompanied by a chart for clarity. He also pointed out the need for a successful retest, which is currently in progress.

As previously reported by Cointelegraph, overcoming the daily downtrend, which has been in place since late 2024, is a crucial barrier for the bulls.

RSI bullish divergence is still in play, with Bitcoin forming another higher low on the RSI while registering lower lows on the price. Rekt Capital concluded that “Each Bull Div preceded reversals to the upside.”

This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading actions involve risk, and readers should perform their own research before making a decision.

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