The analysis commences with a widely accepted belief across the crypto industry: Bitcoin operates in well-defined cycles, typically around four years, primarily linked to its halving cycles. Severino’s technical view is based on Bitcoin’s cycle indicator on the monthly candlestick timeframe chart, which traces back to 2013. As depicted in the chart below, Bitcoin has experienced four distinct cycles in its history. According to Severino, these cycles should be examined from “trough to trough.” The troughs, or market lows, also represent the highest financial opportunity. As the cycles progress, Bitcoin moves through phases of growing optimism, eventually reaching what Severino terms the “cyclical peak.” These peaks, marked in red on his chart, are when Bitcoin hits its maximum financial risk.

Bitcoin reached its peak in the current market cycle shortly before hitting its all-time high of $108,786 in January 2025. If previous cycles are any indication, the next few months could reveal if a top has already been hit.

However, Bitcoin might not be out of the woods yet. Severino points out that previous cycles have seen “right-translated” peaks, where Bitcoin continued to rise slightly even after crossing the peak. Notably, the 2017 bull run was the most right-translated, with price action remaining strong for some time after the red-zone peak. Meanwhile, other cycles began reversing soon after reaching this point of maximum risk.

Based on Severino’s model, Bitcoin appears to have already crossed the red peak, but this doesn’t definitively confirm a top. Rather, it suggests that the margin for error is quickly decreasing. The longer BTC continues to correct after this point, the higher the risk of a bearish phase becomes.

As of writing, BTC is attempting to regain bullish momentum, trading at $87,300 after a 3.6% increase over the past 24 hours. Several other analysts argue that the Bitcoin price could still reach higher levels this year before a definitive top is confirmed.

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