As per data from the online betting platform, Polymarket, there’s an 89% probability of the GENIUS Act, officially known as the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins, passing through the US Senate and House of Representatives, and being signed into law by the President before the year 2026.

Polymarket’s betting opened approximately 18 hours after the Senate approved the bill with a 68-30 vote on Tuesday. The bill’s future, however, remains uncertain as it is unclear whether it will garner enough support in the House in its current state, or whether lawmakers will propose amendments to address concerns related to Trump’s ties to the crypto industry, including World Liberty Financial’s stablecoin, USD1.

If the bill is passed, it could potentially pave the way for US companies to issue their own stablecoins for transaction settlements. Tech giants like Apple and Google are reportedly contemplating their own tokens, and two US senators have forwarded queries to Meta regarding their plans, should the bill become law.

President Trump has intimated that he would sign the GENIUS Act without any amendments, provided the House passes it promptly. The House, where Republicans hold a slim majority, might soon conduct a floor vote on a bill to establish a crypto market structure framework, the CLARITY Act, which could define the roles US financial regulators will play in digital asset oversight.

It’s important to note that the odds on Polymarket do not necessarily reflect the likelihood of US lawmakers passing the bill or Trump signing it into law, but rather display the extent to which some crypto users are willing to stake on various possible outcomes.

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The Blockchain Association, the Crypto Council for Innovation, the Digital Chamber, and the DeFi Education Fund, all significant players in the crypto industry, have expressed their readiness to assist lawmakers in maintaining the “positive momentum” necessary to move the bill forward. They collectively implored lawmakers in a joint statement on June 2 to stay focused on the primary objective of the bill: a comprehensive and targeted oversight of stablecoins.

Despite previous reservations due to perceived connections between President Donald Trump’s family and the crypto industry, many Democrats have re-endorsed the bill. However, an unrelated amendment concerning credit card fees could potentially disrupt the smooth passage of the stablecoin legislation. Senators Dick Durbin and Roger Marshall are seeking to attach their “swipe fee” legislation, the Credit Card Competition Act (CCCA), to the stablecoin bill, according to a report from Politico on June 2.

The amendment, which has faced strong opposition from banks and card networks, would mandate payment networks like Visa, Mastercard, and American Express to compete on transaction processing fees charged to merchants. Crypto advocates are fighting to prevent this unrelated amendment from derailing their efforts to gain regulatory clarity for stablecoins.

A variety of other amendments have been suggested, including new disclosure requirements for government officials holding stablecoins, restrictions on foreign ownership of stablecoin issuers, and reforms to the Bank Secrecy Act and Anti-Money Laundering rules. If no consensus is reached soon, the bill’s final passage could be delayed until the week of June 9.

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Recent days have seen a rise in political tensions as Republicans, supported by some Democrats, strive to pass bills that not only regulate stablecoins but also introduce comprehensive rules for the crypto industry. However, Trump’s engagement with digital assets, his memecoin, and high-profile dinners have caused a potential disruption to bipartisan hopes.

Democratic Senators, including Ruben Gallego, Mark Warner, Raphael Warnock, Lisa Blunt Rochester, Catherine Cortez Masto, and others, expressed multiple concerns about the stablecoin bill last weekend. They called for stronger requirements for foreign issuers and enhanced anti-money laundering measures.

On Thursday, Senator Warner stated that he couldn’t, “in good conscience ask my colleagues to vote for this legislation when the text isn’t yet finished.” He expressed hope that the bill would be ready for floor consideration the following week.

The Senate Banking Committee, led by Republicans, shared a statement titled “Myth vs. Fact: The Genius Act,” aiming to dispel some of the claims made by lawmakers. They described the bill as the outcome of extensive bipartisan negotiations and consultations with industry experts, academics, and government stakeholders.

The Genius Act, which was advanced by the Senate Banking Committee in March, demands that stablecoins have 100% reserve backing with U.S. dollars and other liquid assets, along with other requirements. It also bars foreign issuance in the U.S. but allows circulation of foreign-issued stablecoins in the U.S. secondary market.

Meanwhile, the House Financial Services Committee advanced a somewhat similar bill but differed in the regulation of issuers and foreign issuers like Tether. Democrats have also shown increasing concerns over President Trump’s involvement in cryptocurrency.

Trump’s family has actively participated in the crypto world, launching their memecoins just days before his inauguration and the launch of Trump-backed World Liberty Financial, which recently launched its own stablecoin. A recent crypto dinner hosted by Trump to raise funds for the MAGA Inc. super PAC saw plates priced up to $1.5 million, marking it as one of the most expensive political fundraisers in recent times.

During a planned joint hearing focused on crypto, several Democrats, led by ranking member Rep. Maxine Waters, boycotted the event, citing Trump’s crypto ownership as their reason.

The future of the bill remains uncertain as senators continue negotiations. Bo Hines, Executive Director of the Presidential Council of Advisers for Digital Assets, urged Democrats to make a decision for or against innovation, hinting at the potential for America to secure its position as the crypto capital of the world.

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Scott cited the Senate Banking Committee’s recent progress with the GENIUS Act, a detailed stablecoin regulatory bill approved in March 2025, as a clear sign of the committee’s commitment to cryptocurrency regulations. In a discussion with Fox News, Scott remarked:

“Innovation should precede regulation. Ensuring that digital asset innovation is nurtured domestically is vital for maintaining America’s global economic supremacy.”

The anticipated timeline for the crypto market bill aligns with the predictions of Kristin Smith, the CEO of the Blockchain Association – a leading advocate for the crypto industry. She also projects the enactment of market structure and stablecoin laws by August.

The Trump administration has underlined the importance of comprehensive cryptocurrency regulations in safeguarding the value of the US dollar and positioning the country as a global leader in digital assets, thereby attracting investment into US crypto enterprises.

There is bipartisan agreement among US lawmakers and officials on the need for clear cryptocurrency policies, with expectations for these policies to be enacted into law in 2025. Speaking at the Digital Assets Summit in New York City on March 18, Democrat Representative Ro Khanna expressed his confidence that both the market structure and stablecoin bills would be passed this year.

Khanna also highlighted that a substantial number of his fellow Democrats (around 70-80 representatives) grasp the significance of creating clear digital asset regulations in the US. He further emphasized the Democrats’ support for stablecoins pegged to the dollar, attributing the growth in global demand for the US dollar on the internet to the influence of these dollar tokens.

Bo Hines, the Executive Director of the President’s Council of Advisers on Digital Assets, also predicted at the conference that the stablecoin legislation would be signed into law within 60 days. Hines emphasized the shared bipartisan goal of asserting US dominance in the digital asset space.

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