Challenges Looming for Circle as Lockup Period Nears

Despite initially benefiting from favorable regulatory conditions for digital assets in the US, Circle faces historical challenges as it nears the end of its lockup period. This period typically restricts insiders from selling shares for 180 days post-IPO. As reported, Circle’s lockup period will expire shortly after it reveals its third-quarter earnings this Friday.

According to Dan Dolev from Mizuho, a detailed analysis of over 750 IPOs showed that companies exceeding $1 billion in market capitalization have a 58% chance of underperforming the S&P 500 in the 180 days following their lockup period, with an average decline of 2%. Moreover, firms missing revenue expectations post-IPO often suffer an average negative return of 10% compared to the S&P 500.

Revenue Concerns for Circle Stock

Mizuho suggests that Circle Stock might belong to this underperforming category due to its revenue dependency on USDC reserves held in US Treasuries, Treasury repurchase agreements, and cash. A decrease in interest rates or slower-than-expected USDC growth could negatively impact revenue streams. Dolev stated that CRCL might face downward revisions to consensus estimates in the years to come due to declining rates and increasing distribution costs.

Is Circle Stock a Buy-Low Opportunity?

Although Circle exceeded consensus estimates for both revenue and earnings in its recent report, the looming lockup expiration has exerted downward pressure on its stock. Despite this, JP Morgan has issued a double-upgrade for Circle Stock, raising its rating from Underweight to Overweight and increasing its price target from $94 to $100. The bank highlights the growing acceptance of stablecoins, with USDC as a leader.

JP Morgan analyst Kenneth Worthington views the current situation as a potential “buy-low opportunity,” suggesting that the stock’s decline may present future upside potential, with prices possibly below the December 2026 target.

In conclusion, while Circle Stock faces immediate challenges, its long-term potential remains appealing to some investors. As the lockup period concludes, market behavior will be closely monitored.

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Several venture capitalists (VCs) anticipate a continuous stream of IPOs, assuming no severe macroeconomic downturn. Diogo Mónica, a general partner at Haun Ventures and co-founder and executive chairman of Anchorage Digital, has described this as “the first phase of a multi-year cycle.” He highlights the growing S-1 pipeline and the public market’s appetite for crypto businesses with recurring revenues.

Richard Galvin, the executive chairman and chief investment officer at Digital Asset Capital Management, concurs, stating he is aware of about 15 crypto IPOs being prepared for this or the upcoming quarter. Meanwhile, Cosmo Jiang, a general partner at Pantera Capital, predicts 3-5 crypto companies will go public this year based on current conditions.

The driving force behind this momentum is a combination of product maturity, significant revenue, and a cooperative policy environment. Mónica noted that the settlement volumes of the USDC stablecoin are now on par with Visa’s, making stablecoin platforms more appealing to traditional investors.

The companies most IPO-ready today, according to VCs, fall into four main categories: exchanges, custodians, infrastructure firms with SaaS-like models, and stablecoin platforms. Among the companies named by multiple investors are Kraken, Gemini, BitGo, and Anchorage. Other companies mentioned include OKX, Uphold, FalconX, Ledger, Chainalysis, Fireblocks, Alchemy, Consensys, MetaMask, Flashbots, and the Digital Currency Group or DCG. Ripple was also mentioned as a potential but speculative candidate.

Despite the reopening of the IPO window, most crypto VCs maintain their investment strategies, especially concerning the balance between equity and tokens. Tokens continue to offer clear advantages: they are more liquid, provide earlier flexibility, and remain the preferred exit route across the industry. However, the recent public market appetite for equity may have balanced the situation and prompted some VCs to incorporate IPOs into outcome models for high-quality equity stories.

Disclaimer: This article is provided only for informational purposes and is not intended as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

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The analysis, which covered 4.1 million trades on Finery’s non-custodial trading platform between January and June 2025, also showed that OTC spot volume had risen by 112.6% year-over-year, with the number of trades climbing by 57.6%. Furthermore, stablecoin transactions saw a growth of 154%, and crypto-to-stablecoin flows skyrocketed by 277.4%—significantly outpacing the 48.5% growth in crypto-to-fiat transactions. This trend has made stablecoins the fastest-growing segment within the crypto market.

According to the report, Circle’s USDC was the standout performer, with a 29-fold increase in turnover, spurred by the new regulatory environment in Europe under the MiCA regime. Altcoins, including Cardano, Litecoin, Solana, Tron, and XRP, collectively captured 16.7% of OTC volume, although Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins remained the main focus of institutional rotation.

The report also highlighted a series of M&A deals and product launches in response to the growing preference for fiat-pegged cryptocurrencies among institutional settlements. However, the CEO and co-founder of Finery, Konstantin Shulga, warned of the escalating systemic risk associated with the growing adoption of stablecoins and the increase in issuers. He emphasized the need for secondary-market liquidity to keep pace with issuance to mitigate potential future depeg events.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

The post USDC’s Astounding 29x Yearly Growth as Stablecoins Command 75% of Institutional OTC Volumes in H1 2025 appeared first on Crypto Market Insights: Dive In with CryptoUpdate.io.

In 2024, Circle’s USDC dominated the stablecoin transactions on BitPay, holding an 85% transaction share in contrast to Tether’s USDT at 13%. However, by May 2025, the tables have turned in favor of Tether, with USDC’s share plunging to 56%, while USDT’s share escalated to 43%.

The shift in transaction dynamics occurred despite the positive anticipation around Circle’s public launch in June and the regulatory upper hand that USDC has over USDT in the European Union under the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA).

Tether’s USDT has not only narrowed the gap with its main competitor in terms of transaction count but also led in payment volume on BitPay.

BitPay reported a surge in USDT transactions since March 2025, with it capturing over 70% of the stablecoin volume processed by the platform. The shift can be attributed to the growth in overall stablecoin transactions and a preference for USDT over USDC among existing merchants and customers.

Despite the surge in USDT transactions, Circle’s USDC remains the most popular stablecoin on BitPay by transaction count, though it has experienced a significant drop in 2025.

The rising dominance of Tether in transaction count and payment volumes on BitPay, compared to USDC, provides an interesting perspective considering the different approaches to regulation by Tether and Circle.

While Circle received regulatory approval under Europe’s MiCA in July 2024, Tether has refused to comply with some aspects of the MiCA regulation in Europe. Tether’s CEO, Paolo Ardoino, confirmed that they have no plans to run an IPO, unlike Circle.

Despite losing ground to USDT on BitPay in 2025, USDC has continued to see impressive growth in its market capitalization in the past year, with an 88% surge from around $33 billion to $61.7 billion. In contrast, USDT increased its market value by 40% during the same period, from $112.5 billion to $158.3 billion.

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According to Circle, service providers often face capital inefficiency due to overfunding in an attempt to meet the demand for multi-chain liquidity. Gateway aims to solve these issues by enabling a unified USDC balance across different blockchain networks. Users can deposit USDC into a non-custodial smart contract, thereby creating a single balance that is accessible in real-time across all supported chains.

“Gateway makes access to USDC instant, universal, and chain-agnostic, while ensuring users retain full ownership and control of their assets,” Circle stated in the press release.

Circle plans to roll out this new interoperability layer on Avalanche, Base, and Ethereum testnets come July, with support for other chains expected to follow.

In other news, following its IPO last month, Circle’s market capitalization skyrocketed to over $46 billion. The company’s stock price has surged by more than 500% from its initial offering price of $31 per share. Consequently, Circle has reportedly applied for a national banking license in the U.S., a move signaling the company’s further integration into the traditional financial system.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

The post Circle Introduces Gateway for Seamless USDC Stablecoin Transactions Across Multiple Blockchains appeared first on Crypto Market Insights: Dive In with CryptoUpdate.io.

The stock has been consistently outperforming, with a staggering 24% rise over the past five sessions, and an overall increase of 40% in the last month. The previous record for Coinbase’s closing price was $357.39, set in November 2021. This consistent growth has expanded the company’s market cap to an impressive $89 billion.

Undeniably, a significant portion of this surge can be attributed to the debut of Circle Internet’s (ticker CRCL) stock in the market. The company behind the world’s second-largest stablecoin started trading on June 4 at $31 per share and has seen a 500% surge since then, closing Thursday’s session at $213.63, as per data from The Block.

It’s worth noting that Coinbase has benefitted greatly from Circle’s regulatory filings and recent comments. As per their agreement, Coinbase receives 50% of all the residual interest income from USDC reserves. In 2024 alone, Circle gave more than 60% of its earnings from USDC reserves to Coinbase as a distribution fee.

While trailing behind market leader USDT, Circle’s USDC holds approximately $61.45 billion of the total stablecoin market, as per The Block’s Data Dashboard. Furthermore, Coinbase’s inclusion in the S&P 500 — the first-ever pure-play crypto company in the benchmark index, which became effective on May 19, has also positively impacted the stock.

Analysts are optimistic about COIN’s recent performance, with Bernstein recently elevating its price target to $510 and labeling Coinbase as the “Amazon of crypto financial services.”

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that reports on news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. The Block operates independently to deliver unbiased, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. This article is solely for informational purposes and should not be taken as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

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This uncommon display of bipartisan support marks a crucial shift in the often divisive discussions surrounding cryptocurrency regulation. It represents a significant breakthrough for an industry that has been mired in regulatory uncertainty for an extended period.

Circle, which issues the second-largest stablecoin by market value, went public in a triumphant debut on the New York Stock Exchange earlier this month. Its shares are now valued at $173.60, a significant increase from the IPO price of $31.

The company’s flagship stablecoin, USDC, has a market value of approximately $61.4 billion, as per CoinGecko data. These tokens have found favor for combining the convenience of cryptocurrency without the associated volatility. Tied to currencies like the U.S. dollar, they aim to maintain a steady value backed by reserves.

The bill, referred to as the GENIUS Act, now awaits passage by the Republican-dominated House of Representatives before President Donald Trump can sign it into law. Analysts at Bernstein predict that “once it becomes law (likely by the end of summer), we expect stablecoins to transition from being the money rail of crypto to the money rail of the internet.”

If the bill is enacted, stablecoins will be required to be backed by liquid assets such as U.S. dollars and short-term Treasury bills. Moreover, issuers will be mandated to disclose the make-up of their reserves publicly on a monthly basis. This development could significantly enhance the legitimacy of the sector and attract more high-profile corporations to launch their own stablecoins.

Stablecoins, which currently represent roughly $256 billion of the total $3.3 trillion crypto market value, could also provide a strong boost for major cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, as per KBW analysts.

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This exceptional market reception signifies a considerable latent demand for crypto-centric businesses through traditional equity markets. Investors seem ready to shell out substantial premiums for companies that have direct exposure to cryptocurrency infrastructure, particularly those with steady revenue streams from the digital asset ecosystem.

Circle’s business strategy revolves around USDC, which has kept a reasonably stable market share within the broader stablecoin ecosystem. The overall stablecoin supply continues on an upward trajectory, hitting new peaks, with USDC contributing a consistent part of this growth, despite hovering around $60 billion since late March.

However, the valuation has ignited doubts among certain market spectators who question whether Circle’s fundamentals warrant such aggressive pricing. The company’s revenue model, although stable, may not conventionally demand the high price-to-earnings multiples that the current market valuation implies, hinting that investor excitement may be surpassing underlying business metrics.

The successful IPO of Circle has sparked optimism for future potential public offerings from other crypto businesses, including speculated plans from exchanges like Gemini and Kraken. The market’s enthusiastic reaction to CRCL could act as a blueprint for how traditional investors value crypto infrastructure firms, potentially creating opportunities for similar businesses wishing to enter public markets.

This article is an abstract from The Block’s Data & Insights newsletter. Delve into the statistics behind the industry’s most intriguing trends.

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Under the CRCL ticker, shares of Circle opened at $31, and experienced a 235% surge in the first few hours of trading before settling at $82 by the end of the day. This performance suggests an increasing demand in the market for stablecoin businesses.

Notably, the round was oversubscribed. Prior to this, on May 28, BlackRock, the largest asset manager globally, expressed interest in acquiring a 10% stake in the IPO. Furthermore, ARK Investment, led by Cathie Wood, was reportedly eyeing a purchase of $150 million worth of shares in the offering.

Such high demand led Circle to increase its offering to a marketed range of $1.05 billion, with 34 million shares available for investors. Circle is recognized for its dollar-pegged stablecoin, USDC. The company had been preparing for this offer for several months, but postponed plans due to macroeconomic uncertainty stemming from ongoing trade wars.

However, the Circle IPO did face criticism. Arca Chief Investment Officer Jeff Dorman, in a now-deleted post, blasted Circle for only allotting Arca a $135,000 allocation in the IPO. Arca, according to Dorman, is one of Circle’s earliest supporters, making the allocation a “joke, throwaway” move in his view.

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