The first executive order, issued by Trump on January 23, sought to enhance U.S. supremacy in the digital asset sector through the establishment of a working group to evaluate existing regulations and guidance. The order set three specific targets: to identify current guidelines by February 22, to recommend which standards should be maintained by March 24, and to deliver a comprehensive report by July 22 detailing future steps for regulatory frameworks and the criteria for a U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile.

A subsequent order, issued on March 6, was aimed at creating a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, formed from the approximate 200,000 BTC (valued at $20 billion) already owned by the federal government, which was confiscated as part of criminal or civil proceedings, excluding those that need to be returned to crime victims. It demanded agencies to identify current crypto holdings by April 5 and assigned the Treasury with the task of evaluating legal and budget-neutral investment considerations to acquire additional bitcoin for the reserve by May 5. Both deadlines have passed with no public updates.

“Crypto market policy developments are a key under-appreciated catalyst,” remarked K33’s Head of Research Vetle Lunde and Senior Analyst David Zimmerman in a report released on Tuesday, adding “don’t overlook the executive orders.”

Although information regarding the executive orders remains limited, Trump’s contentious memecoin gala on May 22 and Vice President JD Vance’s keynote at Bitcoin 2025 on May 28 could provide some clarity on the matter, they suggested. “We believe the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is currently undervalued by the market and anticipate information on this front to enforce robust BTC performance ahead,” stated Lunde and Zimmerman.

The K33 analysts have identified Bitfinex’s LEO token as a promising Strategic Bitcoin Reserve trade. They predict 94,636 BTC to be returned to Bitfinex from the U.S. government’s confiscated bitcoin — linked to the crypto exchange’s 2016 hack — with 75,700 of these coins to be used to buy and burn LEO.

LEO, the debt token issued by the exchange following the hack to compensate for customer losses, is currently trading at a marginal 0.15% discount to the net asset value for the first time since March 2024 after experiencing a collapse in premiums from 40% in the past month. The analysts view this as a potential buying opportunity, with the high likelihood of Bitfinex’s asset recovery positioning LEO for potential outperformance against BTC.

In addition, the analysts pointed out that bitcoin’s third surge above $100,000 has been met with subdued trading activity, as traders remain cautious and risk-averse. However, the placid price action at this level suggests a growing market acceptance, they argued, with noticeably less sell pressure than in previous breaks, indicating a bullish outlook.

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