The crypto community is speculating about the odds of the US passing legislation to regulate payment stablecoins, following a significant Senate vote and a public call from President Donald Trump to expedite the bill to his desk. The current speculation indicates a high likelihood of the bill’s passage.
As per data from the online betting platform, Polymarket, there’s an 89% probability of the GENIUS Act, officially known as the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins, passing through the US Senate and House of Representatives, and being signed into law by the President before the year 2026.
Polymarket’s betting opened approximately 18 hours after the Senate approved the bill with a 68-30 vote on Tuesday. The bill’s future, however, remains uncertain as it is unclear whether it will garner enough support in the House in its current state, or whether lawmakers will propose amendments to address concerns related to Trump’s ties to the crypto industry, including World Liberty Financial’s stablecoin, USD1.
If the bill is passed, it could potentially pave the way for US companies to issue their own stablecoins for transaction settlements. Tech giants like Apple and Google are reportedly contemplating their own tokens, and two US senators have forwarded queries to Meta regarding their plans, should the bill become law.
President Trump has intimated that he would sign the GENIUS Act without any amendments, provided the House passes it promptly. The House, where Republicans hold a slim majority, might soon conduct a floor vote on a bill to establish a crypto market structure framework, the CLARITY Act, which could define the roles US financial regulators will play in digital asset oversight.
It’s important to note that the odds on Polymarket do not necessarily reflect the likelihood of US lawmakers passing the bill or Trump signing it into law, but rather display the extent to which some crypto users are willing to stake on various possible outcomes.
