Bitcoin’s price has experienced a notable decline, dropping by approximately $1650 from a peak of $73835 on March 14, now standing around $61650 as of May 9. This decline aligns with a tepid response to new Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong, a stringent interest rate policy by the Federal Reserve, and reduced flows into US Bitcoin ETFs.
Rising Wedge Consolidation
Bitcoin’s price correction is occurring within a falling wedge pattern, suggesting a potential drop to $54,000 by June if this consolidation persists. The wedge’s apex near Bitcoin’s 200-day EMA offers support, potentially leading to a bounce.
Targeting $63,880
Applying technical analysis to Bitcoin’s daily chart, the falling wedge target is around $63,880, a 3.5% increase from current levels. This presents a potential buying opportunity for further declines in the market.
Veteran Trader’s Insights
Veteran trader Peter Brandt predicts Bitcoin could dip into the higher end of the $40,000-$50,000 range, citing a descending triangle pattern. A break below the triangle’s lower trendline could lead to a drop toward $48,550, over 20% below current levels.
Bitcoin’s 2021 Fractal and Future Projections
The ongoing correction mirrors the 2021 pattern, with a declining weekly RSI breaking a multi-month ascending trendline. This suggests a potential drop to around $46,110 by June, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement line. A decisive break below the 50-week EMA could see prices drop to the 200-week EMA around $32,410, a 58% decline from current levels.
Conclusion
The market dynamics and technical patterns indicate potential further declines, but also opportunities for strategic buying, depending on the support levels and pattern breakouts.
