On Jan 31, 2025, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant reported a significant transaction from retail investors to Binance, the leading cryptocurrency exchange. A total of 6,000 BTC, approximately $625 million, was moved in anticipation of the ‘first cycle top.’ At the same time, Bitcoin whales, the big players who often dictate the market trends, are holding back on selling.
Reports reveal that retail investors, believing the bull market is drawing to a close, are cashing out. Within January alone, 6,000 BTC were transferred to Binance, equating to around $625 million at current market rates. Bitcoin whales, however, are playing the patience game and limiting their sales.
“There is often a noticeable contrast between the investment behaviors of whales and retail traders,” noted CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost in a recent market update. “This contrast is quite evident when examining the short-term Binance data.”
Whale deposits to Binance for January totalled around 1,000 BTC ($104 million), indicating a restrained approach to profit-taking. “It’s generally a wiser strategy to follow the whales rather than retail investors,” added Darkfost. Charts also indicate a trend of increased inflow from retail investors, with the inverse being true for whales.
Other retail data suggest that mainstream interest in Bitcoin has experienced a ‘reset’ after the initial surge when Bitcoin passed all-time highs last year. Google Trends figures for the term ‘Bitcoin’ support this, with analysis from CryptoCon utilizing the relative strength index (RSI) volatility indicator to interpret the historical data.
CryptoCon identified five key phases of retail interest in Bitcoin each cycle, with the current cycle following the same trend. There is a tendency for interest to escalate during major price rises, followed by a lull as people lose interest just before major highs are achieved. He stated, “The RSI has completed a full reset, indicating that the next phase, phase 4 (First Cycle Top), will soon be underway.”
The current Bitcoin bull run still has a considerable distance to cover before reaching a macro top, with predictions of potential highs often exceeding $150,000.
Please note that this article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making a decision.
