As the crypto market speculates about the potential for an altcoin season, a fresh technical analysis of Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) presents intriguing correlations between the 2021 and 2025 market cycles. The goal is to decipher if altcoins are on the verge of another bull run. Traditionally, Bitcoin Dominance has served as a crucial barometer to predict the chances of an altcoin surge, since a drop in BTC.D usually indicates a shift in investors’ interest towards alternative cryptocurrencies.
Luca, a crypto analyst on platform X (previously Twitter), is pondering if history is about to replay itself as similar past market trends resurface in the current cycle. Luca shared two parallel charts tracking the Bitcoin Dominance market capitalization and the onset of the altcoin season.
The charts juxtapose the BTC.D market cap in the 2021 and 2025 cycles, disclosing a strikingly similar pattern from the bull market in 2021. At that time, numerous investors expected the altcoin season to kick off as soon as BTC.D hit a high-timeframe resistance. Contrary to market expectations, Bitcoin’s dominance shot above the resistance, causing a widespread sell-off in altcoins.
Fast-forward to 2025, Luca thinks this narrative is reoccurring. When BTC.D slid below the 61% resistance zone, the market was hopeful of a shift towards altcoins. However, BTC.D made an unexpected climb, deviating again and setting off a massive altcoin capitulation.
Luca’s Bitcoin Dominance chart indicates the resistance zone where BTC.D had difficulty breaking through in 2021 and 2025. In both cycles, BTC.D deviated from this resistance level. After the shift in 2021, Bitcoin’s dominance dropped drastically to the green zone between 58% and 60%. This zone coincided with a significant rally that ignited the beginning of the altcoin season.
In the 2025 BTC.D chart, Luca points out the next green zone to be around 54.56%. If history repeats itself, BTC.D might plunge to this low level and possibly trigger a similar rally to initiate this cycle’s awaited altcoin season.
Currently, the market is keenly observing BTC.D to see its next move, which could determine the future of altcoins in this bull market. The critical question remains: will history repeat itself, or will the 2025 cycle follow a new trajectory?
On a contrasting note, Brucer, another crypto analyst on X, contends that the altcoin season might not take place during this cycle. He lists three primary reasons, emphasizing that previous altcoin seasons were catalyzed by significant events like the 2017 ICO boom. However, each cycle varies and may not reproduce the same conditions that led to past altcoin seasons. Brucer also observes that altcoins are currently finding it hard to recover previous highs while Bitcoin’s dominance keeps soaring, now hovering above 60% market cap. Lastly, he suggests that an altcoin season in 2025 is improbable unless there are substantial macroeconomic changes.
