Cointelegraph reports that erroneous crypto narratives, fueled by sensationalism, are still prevalent in the digital currency market. These narratives, according to a crypto analyst, are often based on distorted information rather than solid onchain data.
“Despite the data, misinformation persists,” warns CryptoQuant contributor “onchained” in a market report dated March 22. “Claims frequently lack onchain verification and are driven more by sensationalist market sentiment than by objective analysis.”
“Rely on data, not noise, verify sources and cross-reference onchain metrics,” the analyst adds.
Onchained uses the recent Bitcoin movements of long-term holders (LTH) — those who have held for over 155 days — as an example where false narratives clash with actual data. Despite claims that Bitcoin LTH are “capitulating,” onchained argues that the data shows a consistent holding pattern. “The data leaves no room for speculation,” he states.
The Inactive Supply Shift Index (ISSI), a tool measuring the movement of long-dormant Bitcoin supply, “shows no significant LTH selling pressure, reinforcing a narrative of structural demand outpacing supply,” adds Onchained.
Crypto analytics platform Glassnode echoes this sentiment, noting “Long-Term Holder activity remains largely subdued, with a noticeable decrease in their sell-side pressure.”
However, crypto market narratives are not static and are continually being challenged. The relevance of the 4-year cycle theory, suggesting Bitcoin’s price follows a predictable pattern tied to its halving event every four years, is one such narrative under debate.
Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, recently postulated that the 4-year cycle theory could be discarded, and a longer cycle for Altcoins could be in play. Bitwise Invest chief investment officer Matt Hougan similarly believes that “the traditional four-year cycle is over in crypto.”
Some analysts even question whether the entire Bitcoin bull market has come to an end. CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju recently suggested a bearish or sideways price action for the next 6-12 months. “All Bitcoin onchain metrics indicate a bear market. With fresh liquidity drying up, new whales are selling Bitcoin at lower prices,” Ju stated.
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