The Bitcoin (BTC) market has shown a potential shift in sentiment as the long-term holder realized cap (LTH Realized Cap) surpassed $18 billion for the first time since September 2024. This shift in positioning comes amidst a 10% weekly gain in Bitcoin’s value, even against the backdrop of concerning US economic data.
Data sourced from CryptoQuant suggests that this group of investors, known for holding their Bitcoin for a period of 155 days or more, has been aggressively accumulating. This behaviour mirrors the bullish trend seen when Bitcoin hit its lowest point in Q3 2024. The surge in the LTH realized cap hints at an ongoing accumulation phase among these long-term holders, signalling a bullish market behaviour.
Historical trends as shown in the chart, indicate that a spike in LTH realized cap usually precedes bullish market rallies. Most recently, the LTH realized cap hit $18 billion on September 8, 2024, which was followed by Bitcoin registering 100% returns in the subsequent months.
Another critical factor is the significant drop in open interest (OI). Bitcoin’s OI peaked at $39 billion in July but fell by 25% by September. Similarly, Bitcoin’s open interest dropped 28% between Dec. 18 and April 8. These factors, the rise in LTH Realized Cap and a decrease in leverage, support the likelihood of a Bitcoin price bottom. However, Bitcoin’s open interest has surged nearly 10% in the last 24 hours, which suggests that the price action following this spike could provide a clearer direction in the coming days.
Bitcoin has shown signs of building support at the $79k mark after hitting a new yearly low at $74,500 between April 7-9. BTC prices have since rallied by almost 10% over the past three days. Glassnode data revealed that Bitcoin had established strong support at the $79,000 level.
Also, the recent Bitcoin rally past $81,000, spurred by a 2.4% US CPI rate and President Trump’s 90-day tariff pause, has led to market sentiment leaning towards cautious optimism for a relief rally.
It’s important to note that every investment comes with inherent risks and potential investors should conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.
