Bitcoin (BTC) seems to have established a solid foundation around the crucial $80K mark, initiating a positive surge. Nonetheless, the 200-day moving average is posing a significant barrier, hinting at a likely consolidation period within the $80K–$87K bracket in the near future.
Technical Analysis by Shayan
The Daily Chart
Bitcoin has recently illustrated a bullish rebound after locating potent support within the crucial $75K–$80K zone. This sector has conventionally served as a psychological and technical base, with the bullish discrepancy between the RSI and price indicating a deceleration in bearish momentum, which in turn signals revived buyer interest.
However, the ongoing rally is nearing an essential resistance point, the 200-day moving average at $87K. This moving average acts as a dynamic resistance area and might limit the price in the short run. Consequently, Bitcoin is anticipated to continue its consolidation within the $75K–$87K range until a decisive breakout takes place. If bulls manage to propel above the 200-day moving average, the next significant target sits at the psychological $100K level.
The 4-Hour Chart
In the shorter timeframe, Bitcoin discovered potent support at the median of the descending channel, triggering a sudden surge, possibly indicating accumulation at these stages. The price is currently challenging the upper limit of the channel around $84K.
A confirmed breakout above this trendline and the previous swing high would nullify the bearish structure, paving the way towards the crucial $90K resistance area. On the other hand, failure to surpass this level would fortify the existing bearish market structure, potentially leading to revived downward pressure in the mid-term.
On-chain Analysis by Shayan
The Realized Cap UTXO Age Bands (%) is an influential on-chain indicator that divides Bitcoin’s realized cap by the age of UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs), providing insight into investor behavior based on holding duration.
Based on the latest data, the portion of coins held by the 3–6 months and 6–12 months cohorts has been steadily increasing. This growth closely mirrors the accumulation patterns observed during the extended correction in the summer of 2024, demonstrating growing confidence among holders.
This behavior suggests a “hodling” trend, where investors retain their coins despite the ongoing market correction, abstaining from selling even amidst volatility. As more coins transition into the hands of long-term holders, the available circulating supply diminishes, enhancing Bitcoin’s scarcity.
Historically, such supply constraints, when coupled with renewed demand, have acted as catalysts for robust price rallies. These dynamics frequently lay the groundwork for price discovery and new all-time highs.
Therefore, the current on-chain structure indicates that the ongoing drawdown is less likely to be the start of a bear market and more likely a healthy correction within a larger bullish cycle.
