Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, forecasts that Bitcoin (BTC) price could skyrocket to $1 million by 2028. Interestingly, Hayes suggests that this surge will not be driven by exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows or institutional acceptance, but due to looming capital controls in the United States.
Hayes has previously suggested a million-dollar valuation for BTC, citing reasons such as Treasury buybacks, bond market panic, and institutional movement towards Bitcoin due to “monetary detonation”. However, his new theory, as explained in his latest Substack essay, incorporates an unexpected twist: a drastic policy change that could see the Trump administration shift from tariffs to taxing foreign holdings of stocks, bonds, and real estate in an effort to balance trade deficits.
According to Hayes, such a policy move could result in a massive rotation of capital into assets like Bitcoin. He argues that tariffs, initially employed to reshore manufacturing, are politically untenable – leading to higher consumer prices and disruptions in supply chains. Therefore, a switch to capital controls could be the alternative solution policymakers are seeking.
Hayes suggests that a hypothetical 2% tax on foreign-owned U.S. assets could generate around $600 billion – enough, in his estimation, to abolish income taxes for the “bottom 90%” of American earners. However, such a move could destabilize the $33 trillion foreign-held U.S. debt and equity market.
Hayes warns that the implementation of this policy could force the Federal Reserve to restart quantitative easing (QE) to suppress bond yields and prop up asset prices. He believes this could result in multiple outcomes: foreign investors continuing to earn surpluses from selling goods to the United States while facing taxation on their earnings, reducing exports to the U.S. to avoid taxes, or shifting their investments into stateless assets like gold or Bitcoin.
With Bitcoin’s ability for seamless cross-border movement, unlike gold which relies on custodial intermediaries, Hayes argues that it could become a critical asset in a world of financial balkanization. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $102,000, marking a 3.2% increase over the past week and a nearly 20% surge over the past month.
