Is Dogecoin set for a meteoric rise or a disastrous fall? According to Cantonese Cat (@cantonmeow), a market analyst, the answer lies in the 20-month simple moving average (SMA). Currently, Dogecoin comfortably sits above this SMA, which is currently plotted at $0.1751. Cat’s chart shows only three significant interactions with the 20-month SMA since 2014.
The first significant interaction happened in March 2017. The price touched the SMA near $0.00020, then soared more than 9,000% by January 2018. The second occurred in winter 2020, with the price briefly interacting with the SMA at approximately one-fourth of one cent before skyrocketing 34,500% to $0.73 in May 2021. The third and current interaction started in August of last year, leading to more than a 480% rally for DOGE.
In recent times, two consecutive monthly candles dipped below the 20-cent mark but were quickly bought, leaving higher wicks and keeping the average’s upward trend. Cantonese Cat argues that as long as this moving average remains intact, we can anticipate further growth. However, a monthly close below $0.175 could disrupt the entire structure, possibly triggering a prolonged downtrend similar to the ones after the 2018 and 2021 peaks.
Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA), another analyst, provides a broader perspective by tracking the total crypto market capitalization excluding Bitcoin (depicted by the TradingView ticker “TOTAL2”) in monthly candles since 2017. He outlines a seven-year rising channel defined by two bold yellow trend-lines. The upper rail of this channel repelled price at the alt-season peaks in January 2018 and November 2021.
Kevin’s projections suggest that the total altcoin market cap could reach as high as $5.89 trillion. For Dogecoin, any breakout in the total altcoin market cap would likely see the 20-month SMA continue to climb, possibly setting the stage for a significant price surge. But a failure in the alt-cap triangle could result in a sustained loss of the SMA, potentially undermining DOGE’s historic launching pad.
At present, Dogecoin’s bullish potential remains intact, but the monthly closing will be crucial. If it occurs above the SMA and an alt-cap breakout ensues, we could see another significant rally. Alternatively, a close below the SMA might send DOGE into a dormant phase. At the time of writing, DOGE was trading at $0.189.
