According to recent reports, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a dip to $103,500 as traders reduced their risk exposure in anticipation of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision tomorrow. This price correction seems to indicate a potential reversal in trend amidst geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, adding to the risk-off sentiment. However, historical data suggests that a price bounce from $102,000 to $104,000 could be on the horizon.
Bitcoin Vector, a market pulse aggregator supported by Swissblock, indicates that the fall is not solely macro-driven but also a result of seasonal weakness and a decrease in onchain network growth. This points to a reduction in spot demand. The past day saw over $434 million in BTC futures being liquidated, highlighting that the current move is largely driven by leverage with traders choosing safety over new exposure.
Despite the dip, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index – a metric that compares BTC prices on Coinbase and Binance – has mostly been positive throughout June, indicating consistent spot demand from US investors. However, this demand has had a limited effect on the price due to overall market caution.
Additional pressure came from profit-taking activities among “mid-cycle holders” (6–12 months), who realized $904 million in profits on Monday, Glassnode reports. This group made up 83% of the total realized gains, a significant shift from the longer-term holders who had previously led profit realization. This shift implies a change in market dynamics, with more reactive participants securing gains during recent highs.
Nevertheless, long-term investor behavior still gives an optimistic outlook. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. observed that long-term holders (LTHs) are still holding back from large-scale spending, a pattern that has historically been bullish. With a healthy MVRV Z-score indicating that BTC remains fundamentally undervalued, and positive Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) momentum suggesting selective profit-taking rather than panic, similar scenarios in the past have led to 18–25% rallies within 6–8 weeks. This indicates a potential $130,000 price target by the end of Q2.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin appears to be nearing a short-term bottom between $102,000 and $104,000, where a dense liquidity pocket and a historical order block intersect. The Bollinger Bands are also indicating an imminent volatility spike, with the middle band acting as dynamic resistance near the $106,000 mark. A successful reclaim and close above $106,748 could validate a bullish reversal toward $112,000. However, a clean break below $100,000 could nullify this setup and target $98,000.
Data from Alphractal also identifies $98,300 as the key support level where Short-Term Holders (STHs) remain profitable. If this threshold is breached, it could lead to a deeper correction. As Alphractal noted, the market can still be considered bullish as long as Bitcoin stays above the STH Realized Price. A significant drop below the $98K level could trigger a more substantial downfall.
Please note that this article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, making it essential for readers to conduct their own research before making a decision.
