Bitcoin’s (BTC) trading has been confined within the $100,000 and $110,000 range for roughly a month. Interestingly, both short and long positions have seen a surge within this same range, but short positions are rapidly growing at an accelerated pace.
After Bitcoin accomplished a record-high of $111,814 last month, the cryptocurrency has remained within the $100,000–$110K range, providing little insight into its subsequent directional shift. A recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by BorisVest, utilizing data from Binance, indicates that long positions hold a minor advantage in the current trading range.
Historically, a surge in short positions typically precedes short squeezes, whereas a spike in long positions often leads to long squeezes. The direction of Bitcoin’s next significant move will likely be determined by a clear breakout at either end of the current range.
Per Binance data, long positions are slightly ahead, although the long-to-short ratio remains fairly balanced, reinforced by the funding rate staying near neutral. This reflects an evenly matched contest between bulls and bears. However, this equilibrium often signifies market uncertainty. Despite the stabilization of long interest, short positions continue to rise, possibly due to anticipated further decline amidst increasing geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East.
BorisVest observed that most traders anticipate the rally to stall. A decline in Bitcoin’s price and negative funding rates signify a quick increase in short positions. This suggests that the current range is a highly sensitive zone. He also noted that given the majority of traders are leaning toward short positions, a surprise move in the opposite direction, potentially triggered by under-the-radar accumulation by large market participants, could be on the cards.
Despite BTC’s month-long activity within the $100,000 – $110,000 range, several analysts suggest that the leading cryptocurrency is gearing up for a significant move in the near future. Most predictions lean towards an upward movement. For instance, crypto trader Josh Olszewics suggested that if liquidity remains stable, BTC could target the $150,000 mark.
Technically, the outlook is optimistic. Crypto analyst Mister Crypto recently highlighted that BTC is shaping a bullish inverse head & shoulders pattern on the 3-day chart. Nonetheless, recent on-chain data demonstrates that the Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross has moved into an overpriced zone, indicating a need for caution. At press time, BTC is trading at $105,940, reflecting a 1.1% increase over the past 24 hours.
