Bitcoin (BTC) is currently hovering around the $119,000 mark after recently establishing a new all-time high (ATH) of over $123,000. However, a number of on-chain signals are providing a varied forecast for Bitcoin’s next significant shift.
In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by Chairman Lee, it was highlighted that BTC exchange reserves have seen a notable increase since the end of June. This sudden rise indicates a surge in profit-taking actions, which may pressure BTC in the immediate future.
Large holders and miners have also been actively increasing their deposits from July 18th onwards. Yet, the overall inflows to centralized exchanges are still comparatively low when matched with the figures seen during major market peaks earlier this year.
Meanwhile, the Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) count is on a downward trajectory, often interpreted as a signal of long-term accumulation. Investors seem to be pooling their coins, reducing active transactions and demonstrating strong confidence in Bitcoin’s future potential.
The declining UTXO count typically indicates less short-term selling pressure as holders transfer BTC into fewer wallets rather than trading them. This pattern is usually associated with a bullish market outlook.
Chairman Lee also noted that institutional and exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows remain strong. Almost $50 billion has been invested into Bitcoin-related products Year-to-Date (YTD), despite temporary hold-ups due to profit-taking.
From a technical perspective, Chairman Lee underlined the $116,400 area as the immediate support zone for BTC. The analyst warned that a fall below this level could prompt a correction towards $112K–$110K. However, if Bitcoin maintains above the $116K mark, it could pave the way for a surge towards $124K–$130K.
The analyst emphasized that as long as Bitcoin manages to defend the $110,000 level, the overarching bullish trend will persist. Furthermore, if ETF and institutional inflows continue to accelerate, BTC could potentially reach the ambitious $180,000 target by year-end.
However, some warning signs are starting to appear. On-chain data suggests that long-term holders are boosting distribution, while short-term investors are joining the market in anticipation of further gains – a trend that has historically signaled local tops.
On the flip side, the Bitcoin short-term holder Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) indicates there may still be potential for further BTC price growth. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $119,241, up by 0.9% in the past 24 hours.
