Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio is sending cautionary signals, suggesting the current uptrend might be approaching its peak, beyond mere price movements. This conclusion is drawn from a vital on-chain metric, the MVRV 365-day moving average (365DMA).
According to an analysis dated July 28 by CryptoQuant’s contributor Yonsei_dent, the 2025 cycle is mirroring the dual-peak “camel” structure of 2021, characterized by two peaks approximately six months apart, followed by a bear market.
MVRV’s Warning
The MVRV 365DMA has historically been a reliable predictor of market cycle tops, assessing the average profit or loss of holders over a year. In 2021, it exhibited a double-peak pattern before Bitcoin experienced a prolonged downtrend. Yonsei’s analysis indicates this year’s pattern is replicating that formation, with the initial peak already in place and a second peak potentially emerging around September 10, should history repeat itself.
Market observers caution traders that despite BTC’s advance towards the $119,000 region, it is crucial to “tighten risk management and stay agile,” as the MVRV is a lagging indicator. This implies Bitcoin’s actual price peak might occur sooner, possibly by late August.
“We are entering a phase where both optimism and caution must coexist,” Yonsei remarked. “Let on-chain timing guide your strategy.”
His cautious perspective contrasts with the prevailing market sentiment, which remains bullish following a weekly candle close at $119,466. Fellow analyst Rekt Capital highlighted this as a potential breakout from a long-term bull flag pattern.
However, underlying issues are emerging. As per CryptoVizArt, a bearish divergence between price and the RSI could be weakening bullish momentum, while a liquidation cluster around $114,000 to $113,600 presents a mid-term downside risk.
Strong Price Action
As of Monday, Bitcoin is trading at $118,800, per CoinMarketCap, marking a 0.5% rise in 24 hours and a 3.4% dip from its all-time high of $123,091, recorded on July 14. The asset has climbed 10.6% in the past month and 75% over the past year, though its weekly change remains nearly flat at 0.1%, indicating a probable halt in momentum.
The original cryptocurrency fluctuated between $117,953 and $119,754 over the last day, and between $115,184 and $119,959 throughout the past week, suggesting it continues to consolidate within a narrow range. With the MVRV ratio signaling caution and macroeconomic factors like potential Fed rate cuts looming, the forthcoming six weeks might be critical in determining the outcome of this market cycle, if Yonsei_dent’s analysis holds true.
