Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio Signals Possible Cycle Peak: A Warning for Traders?
Analysts are raising concerns that Bitcoin’s ongoing uptrend might be approaching its zenith, not solely based on price trends, but through a significant on-chain metric: the Market Value to Realized Value, 365-day moving average (MVRV 365DMA).
According to a July 28 analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Yonsei_dent, the 2025 cycle is mimicking the 2021 “double-top camel” pattern, where two peaks occurred approximately six months apart, preceding a significant bear market.
MVRV Flashing Caution
The MVRV 365DMA is a historically dependable marker for identifying market cycle tops. It evaluates the average profit or loss of holders over a year. In 2021, it exhibited a dual-peak configuration before Bitcoin embarked on a prolonged downtrend. Yonsei’s analysis suggests that this year’s pattern is mirroring that setup, with the first peak already realized and a second one potentially emerging around September 10 if history repeats itself.
The market expert cautioned traders that despite Bitcoin advancing towards the $119,000 range, they should “tighten risk management and remain agile,” as the MVRV is a lagging indicator, meaning Bitcoin’s actual price peak could occur sooner, potentially by late August.
“We’re entering a phase where optimism and caution must coexist,” he stated. “Let on-chain timing guide your strategy.”
His cautious perspective contrasts with the prevailing market sentiment, which remains largely bullish following a weekly candle close at $119,466. Fellow analyst Rekt Capital noted this break might signal a potential breakout from a long-term bull flag pattern.
Nevertheless, underlying issues are surfacing. As reported by CryptoVizArt, a bearish divergence between price and the RSI could be undermining bullish momentum, with a liquidation cluster around $114,000 and $113,600 posing a mid-term downside risk.
Price Action Stays Strong
As of Monday, Bitcoin is trading at $118,800 according to CoinMarketCap, marking a 0.5% increase in 24 hours and standing 3.4% below its all-time high of $123,091, achieved on July 14. While the asset has appreciated 10.6% in the past month and 75% over the last year, its weekly change remains flat at 0.1%, indicating a potential pause in momentum.
The original cryptocurrency fluctuated between $117,953 and $119,754 in the past 24 hours, and between $115,184 and $119,959 over the previous week, indicating it is still consolidating within a narrow range. With the MVRV ratio signaling caution and macroeconomic factors like potential Fed rate cuts looming, the upcoming six weeks could determine the trajectory of this market cycle if Yonsei_dent’s analysis holds true.
