The Bitcoin price continues to captivate investors as it embarks on a bullish journey, beginning the last quarter of the year with a strong performance. With October historically recognized as a favorable month for Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency has reclaimed the $120,000 level, sparking enthusiasm among traders and analysts alike.
As Bitcoin approaches its all-time high of over $124,000, market participants are keen to understand how much further the cryptocurrency can ascend. Notably, an on-chain analyst has identified two critical conditions that could propel the Bitcoin price to an extraordinary $160,000 by early 2026.
Why Surpassing $128k is Vital for Bitcoin’s Bullish Run
On October 3, crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. shared his insights on social media platform X, forecasting a Bitcoin price target of $160,000 by early next year. Adler Jr. emphasized that achieving this ambitious price target depends on two pivotal conditions or price thresholds.
The first condition revolves around the aftermath of Bitcoin’s halving events, which historically trigger long-term price surges. The halving event reduces the number of new bitcoins created, historically leading to a scarcity-induced price rally. According to Adler Jr., for Bitcoin to reach $160,000, it must break through and sustain above the $128,000 level, a critical base, on multiple weekly closes.
Halving’s Historical Impact on Bitcoin Price
The scenario-based model, charted by Adler Jr., illustrates how each halving cycle has historically resulted in significantly higher peaks for Bitcoin price. Following the 2020 halving, Bitcoin attained a new peak of approximately $57,000, surpassing its previous high of $4,250.
Looking ahead, the 2024 halving, which reduces miner rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, could potentially drive Bitcoin towards the $160,000 target. However, Adler Jr. warns that failing to maintain above the $128,000 level could jeopardize this upward trajectory.
The second condition suggests that if Bitcoin’s price falls below $102,000, the upward momentum could be invalidated, necessitating a reevaluation of the target or trend. Such a breakdown might trigger a scenario reset, potentially altering the expected trajectory for Bitcoin.
Current Bitcoin Price Overview
As of now, Bitcoin stands at approximately $122,710, marking a 2% increase in the past 24 hours. According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin has surged over 12% in the last week, signaling a strong bullish sentiment.
Investors and analysts are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s price action in the short term. A break above its record-high price could pave the way for Bitcoin to reach the essential $128,000 level, setting the stage for the anticipated $160,000 surge.
