Bitcoin Bear Market: The crypto market is currently experiencing what many are calling the “fastest bear market ever.” Bitcoin (BTC) has recently plunged to $80,600, marking a significant 23% monthly decline. This represents the most severe drop since June 2022, pushing BTC to test its 100-week exponential moving average for the first time since October 2023.
The rapid downturn has led to over $1 billion in Bitcoin futures liquidations, highlighting the intensity of this market phase. The Kobeissi Letter describes this as the “fastest bear market ever,” illustrating the swift and severe nature of the current crypto climate.
Crypto Liquidity Challenges
Since October 6, the total crypto market cap has plummeted from $4.2 trillion to $2.8 trillion, a staggering 33% decline. The Kobeissi Letter suggests that this is one of the quickest-moving crypto bear markets in history, with selling pressure affecting all major digital asset sectors. The stress is evident in crypto investment products, which have seen $2 billion in weekly outflows, marking the largest withdrawals since February.
This trend has persisted for three consecutive weeks, resulting in total outflows of $3.2 billion. Bitcoin accounts for the majority of these withdrawals, with $1.4 billion in redemptions, while Ethereum follows with $689 million in losses. Analysts have classified this as a structural decline, indicating deeper market issues beyond short-term panic.
Spot ETF Flows Add Pressure
Spot Bitcoin ETF flows remain negative, exacerbating the sell-off. BlackRock’s spot ETF is nearing its largest weekly outflow ever, potentially surpassing the $1.17 billion record from February 2025. This indicates sustained institutional selling pressure, contributing to the downward market trend.
Potential for a Bitcoin Liquidity Rebound
Despite the current downturn, a macroeconomic shift could offer Bitcoin a liquidity boost. Analyst Miad Kasravi highlights the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) as a reliable indicator that precedes Bitcoin rallies by four to six weeks during major economic shifts. The NFCI is currently at -0.52 and trending lower, which historically aligns with a 15-20% upside in Bitcoin.
December brings a crucial catalyst: the Federal Reserve’s plan to rotate mortgage-backed securities into Treasury bills. Although not labeled as Quantitative Easing (QE), this operation could inject liquidity similar to the 2019 “not-QE” event that sparked a 40% Bitcoin rally.
If the NFCI continues its decline into mid-December, it could signal the onset of a new liquidity expansion window. Based on previous patterns, Bitcoin’s next significant move could occur in early to mid-December 2025, presenting a potential turning point for market participants.
This article does not provide investment advice. Always conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
