Bitcoin rally enthusiasts are closely watching the market, as a 6.24% increase is vital for Bitcoin to finish 2025 on a positive note. With the annual price candle set to close lower than the year’s opening, Bitcoin must rise above $93,374 to turn the tide.
Analyst Puckrin highlighted the urgency: “Three days for Bitcoin to recover and close up on the year. If not, this will be the first post-halving year we close in the red. 6.24% required to make this a green candle.”
Bitcoin Rally and Market Dynamics
Bitcoin achieved an all-time high surpassing $125,000 in October. However, a historic market crash soon followed, significantly impacting Bitcoin’s upward trajectory and causing a drop across the cryptocurrency market. Since then, Bitcoin’s value has decreased by about 30%, reaching a local low around $80,000 in November, sparking debates among analysts on whether the Bitcoin rally is over or if a new bear market has begun.
Market experts are divided on the potential for a recovery. The discussion often centers around macroeconomic factors and liquidity conditions that influence Bitcoin’s price.
Federal Reserve’s Role in Bitcoin Rally
Attention is keenly focused on the US Federal Reserve and the likelihood of future interest rate cuts. Bitcoin has been trading below its 365-day moving average since November, breaking away from the structural uptrend that began in 2023.
Lower interest rates typically act as a positive price catalyst for risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies, which tend to rally with new liquidity injections. In 2025, the Federal Reserve executed three 25 basis point interest rate cuts. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell provided mixed signals at the December FOMC meeting.
“There is no risk-free path for policy,” Powell stated, casting uncertainty over another interest rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting in January. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group’s FedWatch tool indicates that only 18.8% of investors anticipate a rate cut in January.
These dynamics underscore the challenges and opportunities for a Bitcoin rally as 2025 concludes.
