Recent market analyses show that Ethereum’s performance in 2025 has proved disappointing despite a slight recovery in its value. The altcoin has already lost more than half of its worth this year. Current on-chain data suggests that Ethereum might be on the brink of another value dip.
As per the most recent macro and on-chain analysis by CryptoQuant, a surge in derivative exchange inflows by over 77,000 ETH was observed on April 16th. This significant increase marks the most substantial single-day net inflow recorded in recent times. The spike follows two earlier inflow occurrences on March 26 and April 3, both of which were followed by sharp drops in Ethereum’s value.
Historical data confirms a pattern of increased hedging or short-selling activities as large volume holders shift their ETH to derivative platforms. Alarmingly, this surge coincides with the growing macroeconomic tensions, most notably the escalating trade war between the US and China. The tensions have caused a ripple effect, unsettling risk markets globally.
In the past, similar geopolitical stressors have led to a shift from riskier investments like cryptocurrencies to safer havens, such as US Treasuries and the dollar. This migration intensifies the bearish sentiment across digital assets. Ethereum, which is already trading near multi-month lows of around $1,500, might face an additional pressure if the inflow trend persists.
CryptoQuant’s data underlines the significance of these derivative exchange movements and highlights three key inflection points – March 26, April 3, and now April 16 – each succeeded by a noticeable price weakness. Market analysts believe that the magnitude and timing of the recent inflow likely point towards institutional entities positioning themselves for further decline.
As Ethereum’s near-term path looks increasingly unstable, coupled with macroeconomic uncertainties, Ethereum whales have sold off approximately 143,000 ETH in the past week. This selling trend might indicate a wider bearish sentiment, potentially triggering more selling pressure in the forthcoming days.
Despite these ongoing macro and on-chain pressures, Santiment points out an interesting contrarian signal. Ethereum transaction fees have dropped to a five-year low, averaging just $0.168. This decline indicates lower network activity, as fewer users are trading or using smart contracts like DeFi and NFTs. However, from a trading perspective, such historically low fees often precede price rebounds, making the current levels potentially less risky for buyers. While not a guaranteed signal, fee levels under $1 typically suggest a decrease in crowd interest, which may mark price turning points based on past trends.
