Recent findings indicate that 88% of the total Bitcoin (BTC) supply is now profitable, with the majority of losses occurring within the $95,000-$100,000 buying range. This signifies an evolution in investor outlook, with the prevalent profitability bouncing back from a long-term average of 75%, symbolizing a recalibration of investor expectations.
Bitcoin’s market value has seen a significant recovery from its long-standing average profitability percentage, marking a noteworthy shift in market dynamics. In August 2024, for instance, Bitcoin had retested its 75% mean at approximately $60,000. This implies that the current price bracket of $75,000–$95,000 could be indicative of a structural market bottom, mirroring market conditions observed in the third quarter of 2024.
Cryptocurrency researcher Axel Adler Jr. highlights the total exchange flow to network activity ratio, which signals a 1.5x decline following Bitcoin’s all-time high. This affirms that the ongoing growth is more organic than speculative. Adler Jr. points out that unlike past price peaks, which were marked by heavy selling, the current situation doesn’t exhibit such urgency, suggesting a more stable market environment.
High profitability coupled with reduced inflows into exchanges suggests lower selling pressure from holders, thus fostering a healthier outlook between the $75,000 and $95,000 range. It appears that investors are viewing Bitcoin as undervalued rather than a chance to exit, aligning with the overall bullish sentiment.
Data from Glassnode indicates that the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, a crucial market sentiment barometer, has returned to its long-term average of 1.74. This ratio has traditionally acted as a support zone during consolidation phases since January 2024, indicating a cooling off of unrealized gains and a potential foundation for future growth.
Simultaneously, the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio is neutral at 0.5 with Bitcoin currently priced at $94,400. This is a stark contrast to the overbought indicator when Bitcoin was at this price level in February 2025. This change in market dynamics and the evolving behavior of holders suggest the current profitable investors may be less likely to sell at these levels, potentially bolstering the bullish case for the existing market structure.
