Could the Expiry of $3B Bitcoin Options Intensify Crypto Market Volatility?

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Forecasts suggest that approximately 28,000 Bitcoin options contracts, worth roughly a staggering $3 billion, are set to expire today, Friday, June 13. This occurrence echoes the options expiry of the previous week, sparking speculations that it may have a negligible impact on the spot markets, which have already plunged by over 7% in the last 24 hours.

This week’s Bitcoin options contracts present a put/call ratio of 0.95. This ratio indicates a nearly balanced situation between long investors and short sellers. Moreover, the max pain point is set at $107,000, which is $3,000 above the existing spot prices. This point is where the majority of losses will occur upon the contracts’ expiry.

Open interest (OI)—representing the value or quantity of unexpired Bitcoin options contracts—is the highest at strike prices ranging from $110,000 to $140,000. This high OI, exceeding $1.5 billion at each price, suggests that bullish speculators remain hopeful, according to Deribit.

According to a recent market update from crypto derivatives provider, Greeks Live, the community appears divided about the market direction. The update noted a growing dominance of bearish sentiments as numerous traders have begun purchasing puts for protection. The disagreement concerning the $120,000 price target continues, with some traders expressing doubt while others remain hopeful of reaching it before any significant correction. Traders are also keenly observing $90,000 as a potential retest level.

Alongside Bitcoin options, approximately 250,000 Ethereum contracts, with a notional value of $687 million, are also set to expire today. The combined notional value of today’s crypto options expiry is estimated to be around $3.6 billion.

The total market capitalization has fallen 7.4% to $3.34 trillion over the past 12 hours, with a substantial $180 billion exiting the market. Bitcoin has led this downward trend, shedding 4.3% to reach $103,000 during the Friday morning Asian trading session. However, the asset continues to maintain a value above six figures and remains within its six-week rangebound channel, suggesting that there’s no immediate cause for alarm.

Ethereum has also experienced a decrease following its promising rally, suffering a significant 10% dip to fall below $2,500 on Friday morning. This price level has been a strong support and must hold to prevent another major sell-off. As expected, altcoins have also suffered, with Solana, Dogecoin, Cardano, Sui, Chainlink, and many others experiencing double-digit losses.

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